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19-09-2008, 09:03 PM
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محترف الماكد
تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2006
المشاركات: 686
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تعرف على وليام ديلبرت جان !Gann Cycles!
بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
السلام عليكم ورحمته الله وبركاته مبروك العشر على الجميع واسال الله سبحانه وتعالى ان يتقبل منا ومنكم جميع الاعمال قبل ان نبداء عن جان دعونا نتكلم عن السوق السعودي باختصار هذه المناطق تعتبر مناطق شراء وليست مناطق بيع لاسمح الله ونزل السوق لن يذهب بعيداً انصح بعدم البيع والاتجاه الى الاستثمار مده اربعه اشهر الى سته اشهر والله اعلم ! الان نتعرف على وليام ديلبرت جان ! رابط الموضوع http://www.ganncycles.net/GannCycles...d=14&Itemid=28 وبعدها الترجمه If you had been a businessman travelling across Texas in 1891, you might have bought a newspaper and a couple of cigars from a tall, lanky 13-year-old selling them on your train. And as you talked with your fellow travellers about investments, you might have noticed the youth eavesdropping intently on your conversation. If you had asked him, the boy might have told you his name was Willy and, yes, he was interested in commodities. His dad was a farmer in Angelina County, and just about everyone he knew was as well. They were all concerned about the price their cotton would bring. And had you inquired whether young Willy also wanted to till the East Texas soil when he got older, he might have said no, he didn't think so: he wanted to be a businessman. "Well, good luck, young Willy," you might have said. "Maybe you'll have your own business some day, maybe you'll even be famous. Who knows? No one can predict the future." The young eavesdropper going up and down the aisles of that train was William Delbert Gann. Was it really true, he might have wondered, that no one can predict the future? W. D Gann was born on a farm some seven miles outside of Lufkin, Texas, on June 6, 1878. He was the firstborn of 11 children two girls and eight boys of Sam Houston Gann and Susan R. Gann. The Gann's lived in a too small house with no indoor plumbing and with not much of anything else. They were poor, and young Willy walked the seven miles into Lufkin for three years to go to school. But the work he could do on the farm was more important to the family, so W. D. never even graduated from grammar school or attended high school. As the eldest boy, he had a special responsibility, and those years working on the farm may have been the beginning of his lifelong dedication to hard work. His religious upbringing as a Baptist may also have had something to do with it, for his faith stayed with him throughout his life as well. A few years later W.D. worked in a brokerage in Texarkana and attended business school at night. He married Rena May Smith, and two daughters, Macie and Nora, were born in the first few years of the new twentieth century. WD made the fateful move to New York City in 1903 at the age of 25. Working most likely at a major Wall Street brokerage, W.D. made other changes in his life as well. He divorced his Texas bride and in 1908 at the age of 30 married a 19-year-old colleen named Sarah Hannify. W.D. and Sadie had two children--Velma, born in 1909 and W.D.'s only son, John, who arrived six years later. In addition, Macie and Nora came to live with their father and were raised in New York by their Irish stepmother. During the First World War the family moved from Manhattan to Brooklyn first to Bay Ridge, then to Flatbush. W. D. reportedly predicted the November 9, 1918 abdication of the Kaiser and the end of the war. But it was after the armistice that the fortunes of the Ganns of Brooklyn took their most dramatic turn. The W. D. that traders know today emerged in the Roaring Twenties. In 1919 at the age of 41, W. D. Gann quit his job and went out on his own. He spent the rest of his life building his own business. He began publishing a daily market letter, the Supply and Demand Letter. The letter covered both stocks and commodities and provided its readers with annual forecasts. Forecasting was an activity with which W.D. had become fascinated. The young business prospered, and three years later W.D. Gann became a homeowner, buying a small house on Fenimore Street in his adopted home of Brooklyn. The market letter led to more ambitious publishing. In 1924 W.D.'s first book, Truth of the Stock Tape , was published. A pioneering work on chart reading, it is still regarded by some as the best book ever written on the subject. An individualist and ambitious hard worker, W.D. self-published Truth through his new Financial Guardian Publishing Company. He personally wrote his own ads to market it and negotiated with bookstores to carry it. 'Truth was praised by The Wall Street Journal and sold well for years. Some consider it the best of his many books. For a first effort it was a significant accomplishment. His market forecasts during the twenties were reportedly 85 percent accurate. But W. D. didn't confine his prognostications to prices. It was widely reported he predicted the elections of Wilson and Harding and, indeed, of every president since 1904. At age 49, W. D. Gann wrote what is perhaps his most unusual book, the 1927 Tunnel Through the Air . It is a prophetic work of fiction, not a genre every Wall Street analyst dabbles in. But W.D. Gann was one of a kind. The book is perhaps best known for having predicted that attack on the United States by Japan and an air war between the two powers. Though Tunnel may have had little to offer investors, it was well-publicized and enhanced its author's growing reputation. The market in the 1920's seemed to be defying the law of gravity, but W.D. Gann didn't think it could last forever. In his forecast for 1929, he predicted the market would hit new highs until early April, then experience a sharp break, then resume with new highs until September 3. Then it would top and afterward would come the biggest market crash in its history. We all know what happened. W. D. Gann prospered during the Depression, which he predicted would end in 1932. He acquired seats on various commodities exchanges, traded for his own account, wrote Wall Street Stock Selector in 1930 and New Stock Trend Detector in 1936. He continued making remarkably accurate forecasts as well as some less successful ones like the electoral defeat of FDR. He developed a new interest in investing in Florida real estate. He became a small-scale home-builder in Miami as well as the owner of a block of stores on the Tamiami Trail. He also became airborne. He bought a plane in 1932 so he could fly over crop areas making observations to use in his forecasts. He hired Elinor Smith, a noted 21-year-old aviator, to fly him around. The novelty of his high-flying research--W.D. was the first to study markets in this way--helped keep him in the spotlight. W. D. Gann's son John Gann also went into the securities business in 1936 at the age of 21. A year later he went to work for his dad until in 1941 his Uncle Sam announced he had plans for the young man in Europe. Back in Brooklyn, Sadie had health problems for some time and died at age 53 in 1942. Then after 20 years on Fenimore Street, an aging W.D. Gann moved to Miami for reasons both of health and personal preference. His How to make Profits in Commodities came out the same year. He kept his business in New York, relying on his long-time personal secretary. In Miami he continued studying the market, trading, real estate investing, and instructing students. The next year at the age of 65, when most are thinking retirement, W.D. decided he'd get married and did, to a much younger woman. Son John worked on W. D. Gann's business in New York briefly after the war, then left to pursue his own interests in the Industry. The two differed in their approach to the market. John L. Gann pursued a successful lifetime career with Wall Street's major brokerage house until his passing in 1984. The post-war years saw Gann start taking it easier. He published 45 Years in Wall Street in 1949. He sold his business to Joseph Lederer, a fellow student of the market. Around the same time he also separately sold the rights to all his books to Edward Lambert. He continued, however, to study, teach, and trade. He was made an honorary member of the International Mark Twain Society in 1950. In 1954 he suffered a heart attack. A year later advanced stomach cancer was discovered. The doctors operated, but W. D. Gann failed to recover. He died in June, 1955, at the age of 77. He was buried with his second wife in Green-Wood Cemetery in Brooklyn at a location that looks toward Wall Street. It was a fitting location since he had studied the Street all his adult life. In 1995, 40 years after his passing, William D. Gann is still talked about, written about, and studied avidly. It's an extraordinary testimonial to his work and one that even W.D. couldn't have predicted. Or could he? What lessons might there be in this remarkable man's life? First is an affirmation of the American Dream. William Delbert Gann of Lufkin, Texas, started with nothing. He and his family had no money, no education, and no prospects. But less than 40-years after overhearing businessmen talk on railroad cars in Texas, W.D. Gann was known around the world. Second, hard work pays. W. D. Gann rose early, worked late, and approached his business with great energy. Virtually all his education was self-administered. This teacher, writer, and prescient forecaster had a third-grade formal education. But he never stopped reading. Third, unconventional thinking may have its merits. W.D. was intellectually curious to an extraordinary degree. He was unafraid of unorthodox ideas, whether in finance or in other areas of life. He wasn't always right--none of us are--but he dared to pursue a better idea. Fourth, there may be something to that clean living business after all. A conservative Baptist, W.D. didn't smoke, drink, play cards, or dance. He was serious in demeanour and a conservative dresser, although he lightened up somewhat in his later years. He respected the value of a dollar and was prudent in his personal spending. Not every internationally acclaimed seer would continue to live in a modest house in Brooklyn. Fifth, faith helps. W. D. Gann studied the Bible all his life. It was his Book of Books. His own last book, The Magic Word , published in 1950, strongly reflects this devotion. And finally, the only lesson for traders I will venture to offer is W.D. Gann never stopped studying the market. Even after his forecasts happened, even after he achieved international acclaim. Although he believed in cycles, he also knew that markets are always changing and that decisions must be made based on today's conditions, not yesterday's. W.D. might have rested on his laurels. But he kept studying and seeking greater understanding. If he couldn't afford to stop, can any trader afford to do so? John L. Gann, Jr., is the grandson of William D. Gann. Most of the information in this article comes from W.D. Gann's son, the late John L. Gann, to whom this article is dedicated. The information herein is believed to be correct but no assurance of accuracy is offered. ولد جان في 6 يوينو 1878 في مزرعه تبعد 7 اميال عن لوفكن ,ليكساس كان هو الخلفه الاولي من بين 11 خلفه اي له 10 اخوات 2 بنات و8 اولاد كان يعيش في منزل صغير جدا وكانت عائلته فقيره وكان يقطع 7 اميال مشي حتي يصل الي المدرسه في لوفكن والده كان مزارع في مدينه انجولينا يزرع القطن كان والده يريده ان يعمل معه ولكنه رفض لانه كان يريد ان يصبح رجل اعمال وعندما كبر والده كان لابد له من العمل في المزرعه مع والده لانه الابن الاكبر ومسئول مثل والده وخرج وليام من المدرسه ولم يتحقق حلمه بان يلتحق بالجامعه ثم يري مستقبله وبعمله في المزرعه لمده سنوات بدأ يشعر بجديه العمل والتفكير مره اخري في المستقبل بعد سنوات من العمل في المزرعه ذهب وليام للعمل في مكتب وساطه والتحق مره اخري في مدرسه لتعليم التجاره في الليل , اي يعمل صباحا ويتعلم ليلا تزوج وليام من رينا ماي سميز وانجب بنتين ماكي ونورا وبدأت الاسطوره: انتقل وليام الي مدينه نيويورك في عام 1903 وكان عنده 25 عاما وبدأ في التجاره في الاسهم والعقود وبدأ يكبر في التجاره طلق زوجته رينا وفي عام 1908 تزوج ساره وانجب طفلين بنته فيلما ولدت في عام 1909 وبعد ست سنوات انجب الطفل الثاني وكان ولد اسمه جون وكبر وليام وفتح شركه وساطه خاصه له ثم انتقل الي ميامي واكمل تجارته ومؤلفاته واكتشفاته حتي توفي في 14 يونيه 1955................................ هذا بالنسبه لحياته الشخصيه |
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19-09-2008, 09:05 PM
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#2 |
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محترف الماكد
تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2006
المشاركات: 686
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بالنسبه لحياته العمليه:
استخدم وليام ادواته الخاصه في التحليل الا ان وصل الي 50 مليون دولار وقتها تساوي وقتنا 50 مليار دولار كان دراساته وتحليلاته تعتمد علي الوقت وليس السعر بقدر ما اهتم بالوقت وقال مقولته الشهيره "عندما يحين الوقت سيتغير السعر" وقال ايضا "الوقت اهم من السعر" جان لم يركز كل الاهتمام علي الاهداف السعريه قدر ما ركز علي مناطق تغير الاتجاه بصرف النظر عن السعر ومن ثم بدأ يبحث للوصول الي السعر وضرب الارقام القياسيه في المتاجره حيث قتح 286 صفقه منه 264 بمكسب والباقي خسر 479 صفقه كسب منها 422 صفقه جميع ما ذكر عن جان نقل من عده اماكن لغرض الاستفاده! اسال الله لكم التوفيق |
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19-09-2008, 09:37 PM
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#3 |
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متداول نشيط
تاريخ التسجيل: Jun 2007
المشاركات: 870
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بارك الله فيك وشاااااكر لك
هل لديك طريقته بحساااب الوقت للدخول عند سعر معين مع العلم انه صاحب المقوله الشهيره "When you know how to use time with price then you know how to trade" متى ماعرفت كيف تستخدم الوقت مع السعر فانت تعرف كيف تتجار |
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19-09-2008, 09:45 PM
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#4 |
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متداول فعّال
تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2006
المشاركات: 247
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جزاك الله خير
ووفقك الله |
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19-09-2008, 09:45 PM
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#5 |
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متداول نشيط
تاريخ التسجيل: Nov 2006
المشاركات: 418
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حياك الله اخوي محترف . . . . .
اخبار موقعنا الغالي . . . . . محبكم / محلل أسهم |
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19-09-2008, 09:54 PM
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#6 | |
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محترف الماكد
تاريخ التسجيل: Feb 2006
المشاركات: 686
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اقتباس:
ياهلا ابو شرعان قد تفيدك هذه المشاركه نبذه عن المربعات التسع او عجله جان: هي عباره عن متسلسه ارقام تدور مع اتجاه عقارب الساعه ابتادءا من المركز يبدأ المركز برقم واحد ويساره الرقم 2 ثم يبدأ الدوران مع اتجاه عقارب الساعه. تستخدم لتحديد القمم والقيعان الرئيسيه وباختلاف الفريم تعطينا الفرعيه لتحديد السعر الذي في التشارت علي المربعات: "نقوم بايتاء الجزر التربيعي للسعر+اضافه قيمه الزاويه بين المربع الذي ياتي من الجزر التربيعي وبين المركز"رقم واحد" لنختار في مثالنا "الرقم او السعر 664" ناتي بالجزر : ويساوي 25.768 الزاويه بينه وبين المركز تساوي 360 درجه وذلك يعني اننا سوف نضيف 2 علي الجزر 25.768+2=27.768 نقوم بتربيع الرقم الناتج =771 =قمه جديده تفصل المثال: لماذا ضفنا اثنين؟ كل زاويه ولها رقم يضاف وسوف ندرس لاحقا كيف يأتي اهم الزوايا التي ستحتاجونها: 360 درجه = + او - "2" 180 درج ه= + او - "1" 120 درجه = + او - "0.666" 240 درجه =+ او - "1.333" 90 درجه = + او - "0.5" 270 درجه = + او - "1.5" 60 درجه = + او - "0.333" 300 درجه = + او - "1.666" كيف نعرف اننا سوف نطرح او نجمع؟ يمين المركز هتجمع وشماله تطرح |
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19-09-2008, 10:15 PM
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#7 |
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متداول نشيط
تاريخ التسجيل: Mar 2005
المشاركات: 788
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عاد هذه يبغالها براد شاي...
اذا ممكن تدلنا على مصدر لشرح مبسط او برنامج اكون لك من الشاكرين جزاك الله خير وبورك فيك من فترة وانا ابحث عن التحليل الزمني |
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19-09-2008, 10:21 PM
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متداول فعّال
تاريخ التسجيل: May 2005
المشاركات: 223
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اقتباس:
بارك الله فيك انا قرات ذلك في كتاب الاستاذ عبد المجيد المهيملي ولم افهم ياليت تكتب لنا مثال عملي على التشارت حتى نستطيع فهمه ولك جزيل الشكر |
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19-09-2008, 10:30 PM
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متداول نشيط
تاريخ التسجيل: Jun 2007
المشاركات: 870
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اقتباس:
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19-09-2008, 11:13 PM
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#10 |
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متداول نشيط
تاريخ التسجيل: Nov 2007
المشاركات: 3,571
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حياكم الله جميعاً ..
أشكر أولاً صاحب الموضوع و أحييه على طرح مثل تلك الأفكار التي أعتقد أن التفكير فيها ذو جدوى أكبر من الإتخلاف حولها .. و لدي هنا إستفسار : هل هناك تفسيراً لهذا المربع ؟ تفسير علمي و منطقي ؟ ثم هل هناك بدائل له ؟ |
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