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14-06-2006, 04:32 PM | #21 |
متداول نشيط
تاريخ التسجيل: Jul 2005
المشاركات: 455
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فرضية البرادي
منذ اسابيع وبعد ان وصل الذهب الي اعلي مستوياته في التاريخ الي 730 دولار للاونصة ومنذ اسابيع بعد رفع اخر فائدة بربع نقطة قال الامركان بانهم لن يرفعوا الفائدة لانهم يعتقدون بان التضخم في مستويات منخفضة,لذلك لاحظنا كل من العملات تطير الي مستويات عالية والداو جونز والناسدك الي مستويات لاباس بها. ثم بعد ذلك رجع الامركان وقالوا لا هناك تضخم وبداؤ يطبلوا بارفاع الفائدة اعلي من الربع نقطة ( ربما النصف نقطة) للتحكم بالتضخم والبطالة, وذلك بعد ان صرفوا الذهب وعقود البترول.
ما اعتقد به هوا ان الامركان هذه المرة قد يفاجوئنا بعدم رفع الفائدة ........لماذا؟ بعد ان طبلوا للذهب وقالوا ان الذهب سيصل ال1000 او اكثر قاموا بتصريفه وهم الذين جمعوه ابان حربهم علي العراق في فترة 2003 -2004 ثم عندما بداو بتصريفه ادخلوا العالم في وهم الحرب علي ايران و وضحوا بان العجز في الميزانية الامريكية لازال مرتفع . ما افترض حدوثه في اجتماع الامريكان في شهر ستة هوا اظهار بان العجز قد تحول الي فائض وفائض عظيم علي اساس المكاسب العظيمة من وراء تصريف في المعادن والبترول. هذه فرضية قد تصيب او تخطىء لذا ارجوا قراتها وذلك للفائدة . اخوكم البرادي |
19-06-2006, 05:44 PM | #22 |
عضو
تاريخ التسجيل: Jan 2004
المشاركات: 1,280
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Fed Brief
Updated: 14-Jun-06 10:51 ET Hawkish Fed Stance, Hike on June 29 The policy tone from the Fed has growth significantly more hawkish since the release of the May policy statement seeming to guarantee another 25 bp hike in the policy rate to 5.25% on June 29. Three consecutive 0.3% gains in core CPI, the return of the 4 year high of 2.4% yoy for core CPI inflation and the very hawkish tone coming from all sources within the Fed seem to seal the lid on the month-end policy decision. The Fed speak seems intended to confirm to the market the Fed's intent to calm inflation pressures rather than be overly cautious regarding the pace of the economic expansion. That certainly doesn't mean the Fed is willing to drive the economy in to recession waiting for the lagging inflation measures to cool. The hawkish tone is simply intended to help hold down inflation expectations as heightened fear builds inflationary potential and increases consumer and business caution. The danger zone for policy rates arrives as nominal rates near 6% or real (inflation-adjusted) rates approach 4%. Over the last decade those levels have been the choking point for the economy. A June 29 hike to a 5.25% policy rate leaves a real policy rate just above 3% -- still safe but in a warning zone. ================= هناك اشاره من مقياس التضخم (PCE) بان الاقتصاد الامريكي لايزال يعاني من التضخم خاصة بعد زيادة معدل سعر الفائدة الاخير الذي كانت في شهر ماي حيث يشير مقياس التضخم الى الرقم 0.3% الذي يعتبر الاكبر منذ اربع سنوات باعتباره اعلى من الرقم 2.4% لذا قد نشهد ارتفاع لمعدل سعر الفائدة في الاجتماع القادم 29-6-2006م لتصل الى 5.25% وفي حالة استمرار مقياس التضخم (PCE) بالارتفاع فقد نصل الى ارتفاع لمعدل سعر الفائدة بالقرب من 6% ويعتبر رقم خطر لخنق الاقتصاد الامريكي . ========== ترايدر |
29-06-2006, 04:53 PM | #23 |
عضو
تاريخ التسجيل: Jan 2004
المشاركات: 1,280
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Fed Seems Set to Raise Rates Again Today
Thursday June 29, 8:07 am ET By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer Fed Seems Set to Raise Rates Again Today With Quarter-Point Hike Expected WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve is wrapping up a two-day meeting today, and analysts say there is little doubt the central bank will raise rates for the 17th consecutive time. While some feared the Fed might boost rates by a half-point, most economists were looking for another quarter-point increase. That would push the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, to 5.25 percent, the highest level in more than five years. ADVERTISEMENT That increase would also mean a rise in the borrowing costs for millions of Americans, with banks' prime lending rate rising by a similar quarter-point to 8.25 percent, also the highest level in more than five years. The Fed has been on a steady campaign to raise rates to fight inflation since its first increase in June 2004 when the funds rate was at a 46-year low of 1 percent. The Fed has been remarkably consistent over the past two years in its actions on interest rates, but many analysts believe it has grown erratic in its ability to explain those actions. Many are putting the blame on new Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who has sent markets on a rollercoaster ride in recent weeks with what appeared to be conflicting statements over the future course of rates. Bernanke, a former Princeton economics professor and chief economist for the Bush White House, took over from Fed legend Alan Greenspan on Feb. 1. His first five months on the job have seen some rocky times. Bernanke sent markets soaring after an April 27 appearance before Congress' Joint Economic Committee when he suggested the Fed might take a pause in its long rate-hike campaign. Worried that Wall Street might perceive him as too dovish in fighting inflation, Bernanke sought to set the record straight by giving a tough anti-inflation speech on June 5. That contributed to a 199-point plunge in the Dow Jones industrial average as investors feared there could be a number of rate hikes to come. Economists said Bernanke, in an effort to be more open about the Fed's thinking, is actually increasing confusion. "He's talking way too much and he says one thing one day and then says something entirely different the next day," said Martin Regalia, chief economist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and a former Fed economist. "This is not increasing transparency. It is increasing confusion." Some economists said it is unfair to make Bernanke take all of the blame. Part of the problem, they contend, is that after 18 years of learning to decipher Greenspan's almost impenetrable prose, markets are having trouble getting used to Bernanke's more straightforward speaking style. "Greenspan was rather cryptic. Bernanke is much more open and the result is that the markets are over-interpreting everything he says," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York. Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor, said, "With Greenspan, who was quite obscure, the deal was to look at his speeches with a magnifying glass until you found the one word that told you what he was signaling. Bernanke is not like that. He says what he means." Many analysts believe that Fed officials will raise rates by a quarter-point this week and signal that they are still concerned about inflation, which would leave the door open for another increase at the Aug. 8 meeting. But analysts are split on whether there will be a rate increase in August, saying it will depend on whether the economy has slowed enough by then to ease the Fed's inflation concerns. With housing and consumer spending both cooling, many analysts believe the slowdown will be unmistakable at that point, and that the Fed may well call a halt to the rate boosts. But analysts said they don't expect the Fed at this week's meeting to give a strong signal one way or the other on their future actions. "We are at a turning point right now and not even the Fed can be sure how much more needs to be done," said David Jones, head of DMJ Advisors, a Denver-based consulting firm ============ في ظهرهذا اليوم الموافق 29-6-2006م سيكون اجتماع للمصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي وكان هناك بعض الشكوك لبعض المحلليين بان تكون هناك زيادة ربع نقطة وهي الاعلى منذ خمس سنوات والسابعة عشر على التوالي خلال هذا الاجتماع لتصل بذلك الى 5.25% كما ذهب البعض الى ابعد من ذلك حيث خيشي بعض المحلليين ان تكون هناك زيادة نصف نقطة خلال هذا الاجتماع الامر الذي سيزيد من نسبة تكاليف الاقتراض لملايين الامريكان وفي حالة رفع معدل سعر الفائدة خلال هذا الاجتماع فهي ضمن سياسة المصرف الاحتياطي الفدارلي لمحاربة التضخم التي بدأت في يوليو من عام 2004م والتي كانت في ادنى مستوياتها منذ 46 سنه حيث كانت 1% . كما عبر بعض المحليين والاقتصاديين عن قلقة بان تكون هناك ارتفاعات مفاجأة لمعدل سعر الفائدة خلال الاشهر القادمة . ===== سيتم تزويدكم بنتائج الاجتماع في حينه ترايدر |
29-06-2006, 09:21 PM | #24 |
عضو
تاريخ التسجيل: Jan 2004
المشاركات: 1,280
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29-Jun-06 14:16 BONDX Fed raises funds rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% as expected كانت نتائج الاجتماع ارتفاع معدل سعر الفائدة ربع نقطة لتصل بذلك الى 5.25% . ======== ترايدر |
30-06-2006, 02:46 AM | #25 |
متداول جديد
تاريخ التسجيل: Mar 2005
المشاركات: 42
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تحرك السوق بعد اعلان الخبر
السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته
احببت المشاركه باضافة التشارت لمؤشر نازداك بعد اعلان الخبر وافضل طريقه لاستغلاله : [bimg]http://www.tdwl.net/vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=21732&stc=1&d=11516238 19[/bimg] تشارت اخر 7 ايام لنازداك ويبين الارتفاع العمودي وقت اعلان تقرير رفع الفائده "عند السهم الازرق" . وارتداده من عند اخر مقاومه قبل 6 ايام في بدايه التشارت عند قرائه 2152 تقريبا. [bimg]http://www.tdwl.net/vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=21733&stc=1&d=11516238 19[/bimg] تشارت نازداك بتحديث كل دقيقتين يوضح خطوط ارتداد فيبوناتشي المحسوبه من اخر قمه وقاع، المؤشر ارتد بنسبه 50% بالضبط عند 2140 ثم عاود الارتفاع، الشراء يبداء "فوق السهم الازرق" بعد اول شمعه يغلق اسفلها فوق الاعلى لادنى شمعه تسبقها وهي التي كانت هنا تمثل نقطه الارتداد، والبيع اولا نصف الكميه تحت اخر مقاومه "اول سهم احمر" والنصف الثاني اذا تم الاختراق يكون البيع قبل الوصول لنفس طول الموجه المرتده" ثاني سهم احمر" اي تقريباً قبل الوصول الى 10 نقاط اعلى. بالنسبه لوقف الخساره يكون تحت مستوى 61 لفيبوناتشي "2137" ويتم رفعه بعد اول 5 نقاط ارتفاع الى سعر الشراء ثم عند بلوغ الهدف الاول الى فوق الشراء بخمس نقاط بحيث يتم الحفاظ على المكاسب. هذه المفاهيم تنطبق على غالبيه الاسهم التي تحركت بقوه مع المؤشر. [bimg]http://www.tdwl.net/vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=21734&stc=1&d=11516238 19[/bimg] واخيراً، للتأكد من ان الارتفاع كان حقيقيا يجب ان يكون مصحوباً بهبوط في الدولار مقابل باقي العملات، وهذا ما يوضحه تشارت اليورو مقابل الدولار حيث ارتفع اليورو بشكل قوي وقت الاعلان. تمنياتي للجميع بالتوفيق. |
30-06-2006, 04:04 PM | #26 |
عضو
تاريخ التسجيل: Jan 2004
المشاركات: 1,280
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Fed Brief
In depth analysis of Federal Reserve Policy. Updated: 29-Jun-06 16:06 ET New in the Research Section: FOMC June Hike, July 19 Testimony Provides Forward View The Fed stepped in with the anticipated quarter percent hike on Thursday to lift the funds policy rate to 5.25% and the discount rate to 6.25%. Quarter percent rate hikes have been seen at every FOMC meeting since June 2004 as today's was the 17th consecutive increase from the 1% 45 year low. The question ahead is when this long sting of rate hikes will end. While the text of the policy statement did not include the comment seen in the May statement that 'further policy firming may be needed', the open-ended statement that policy direction will depend on the data again allows the Fed to tighten or pause at the coming meeting(s). The statement noted that economic growth is moderating as core inflation has been elevated in recent months. The implied inflation outlook included risks. While productivity gains have held down unit labor costs as inflation expectations remain contained, high levels of resource use and the prices of energy and other commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures. Recent data have heightened the inflation and policy concern. Three consecutive 0.3% gains in core CPI left the return of the 2.4% four year high. The slightly tamer pace of core PCE inflation -- which the Fed prefers to CPI -- is released Friday (June 30) and may help to cool the market's inflation concerns if it comes in at the 2.1% Briefing.com expects. The Fed's predicament is that the market is watching the lagging indicator of core inflation as the Fed sets policy which may not be reflected in inflation for another 3 quarters or so. The July 19 semi-annual testimony on monetary policy allows Chairman Bernanke to remind the markets of policy lags and thereby allow a pause in the tightening to better access the economic and inflation effects to date. Despite the Fed Chair's call for increased transparency a little cover is well timed during periods of economic transition Allowing for a pause becomes more important as the funds policy rate nears the 6%+ economic 'choking point' seen over the last decade. The mid 90s soft-landing was the work of a 6% policy rate as the 6.5% peak reached in mid 2000 brought the 2001 recession. The June 29 hike to a 5.25% policy rate leaves a real (inflation adjusted) policy rate just above 3% -- still safe but approaching the 4% choking point of the mid 90s. ========= في البدايه لن نقرأ حيثيات القرار فـ زيادة معدل سعر الفائدة ربع نقطة كانت امر غير مستغرب لتصل الى 5.25% ولكن المهم في قرار رئيس المصرف الفدرالي يتخلص في الاتي: 1. قلل من مخاوفه من التضخم نتيجية ارتفاع معدل سعر الفائدة السابعة عشر على التوالي والتي كان لها الاكثر الكبير في ابعاد الاسواق الامريكية عن شبح الكساد . 2. لم يلمح الى اي زيادة في الاجتماع القادم الامر الذي يعطي مزيداً من الوقت لقياس التضخم من خلال التقارير الاقتصادية التي ستصدر لاحقاً والتركيز على مقياس (PCE) خلال الايام القادمة ولم يستبعد اي ارتفاع لمعدل سعر الفائدة خلال هذا العام متى مادعت الحاجة لذلك لمعالجة التضخم ولمنع الكساد للاقتصاد الامريكي . جاءات ردت فعل السوق اثناء صدور القرار ايجابية حيث ارتفعت اهم المؤشرات الرئيسية بشكل ايجابي (حسب المرفق )ولكن يجب الحذر من الايام والاسبوع القادم خاصة وان الاسواق الامريكية ستغلق يوم الثلاثاء 4-7-2006م بمناسبة يوم الاستقلال وفي يوم الاثنين الموافق 3-7-2006م سيكون التداول نصف يوم فقط اي ستغلق الاسواق في تمام الساعة الواحدة ظهراً بتوقيت نيويورك اي في تمام الساعة الثامنة مساءاً بتوقيت السعودية . لازالت الثقة موجودة في الاقتصاد الامريكي للقضاء على التضخم وان الكساد لن يصاحب الاقتصاد الامريكي( بمشيئة الله تعالى) في ظل السياسة التي يتخذها المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي . ============== ترايدر |
03-07-2006, 04:45 PM | #27 |
عضو
تاريخ التسجيل: Jan 2004
المشاركات: 1,280
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Updated: 30-Jun-06 17:14 ET
Calmer Fed Amid Slowing Economy While last week's FOMC meeting left a 17th consecutive rise in the policy rate to 5.25%, the tone of the statement was less hawkish than feared to bring some relief to the markets. Again the Fed stated that the extent and timing of any added policy tightening will depend on the incoming data and the outlook for growth and inflation. But gone was the May reference that 'further policy firming may be needed'. Market expectations as seen through funds futures pricing currently sees another policy hike to 5.5% in August but at a current probability of 60% leaves plenty of room for changing opinion given Bernanke's July 19 testimony on monetary policy, a closer look at the policy discussion in the July 20 release of the FOMC minutes and all the economic reports due over the next six weeks =========== صرح المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي بعد اجتماعة الاخير والذي رفع معدل سعر الفائدة السابع عشرة على التوالي الى ان وصلت الى 5.25% بان اي زيادة محتملة ستعتمد على التقارير الصادرة حيث قد تصل في اجتماع August القادم الى 5.5% وهذا يرجع الى حسب نتائج التقارير الصادرة خلال الستة اسابيع القادمة . ========= ترايدر ============ |
19-07-2006, 06:31 PM | #28 |
عضو
تاريخ التسجيل: Jan 2004
المشاركات: 1,280
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AP
Dow Shoots Up After Bernanke Comments Wednesday July 19, 10:27 am ET By Ellen Simon, AP Business Writer Dow Industrials Jump 100 on Comments by Fed Chief Bernanke That Inflation Remains Contained NEW YORK (AP) -- Stock prices rallied Wednesday on remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that economic moderation "now seems to be under way" and that inflation remains contained. The Dow Jones industrial average shot up more than 100 points. ADVERTISEMENT In morning trading, the Dow rose 108.70, or 1.01 percent, to 10,907.93. Broader stock indicators also gained sharply. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 15.27, up 1.23 percent, to 1,252.13, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 24.29, or 1.19 percent, to 2,067.51. Investors expected Bernanke to give more signals of an end to the Fed's streak of interest rate hikes as he continued testimony before Congress during the trading session. Two government reports indicated that the economy is slowing. The Labor Department said the Consumer Price Index rose by just 0.2 percent in June, the smallest increase in four months, but core inflation, which excludes energy and food, rose by 0.3 percent in June, higher than the 0.2 percent Wall Street expected. That increase left core inflation rising for the past three months at an annual rate of 3.6 percent, far above the Federal Reserve comfort zone of 2 percent or less. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said construction of new homes fell by 5.3 percent in June, another sign that the once-booming housing market is slowing. Strong earnings from International Business Machines Corp. and two of the nation's largest banks also helped stocks. In morning trading, the Dow rose 108.70, or 1.01 percent, to 10,907.93. Broader stock indicators also gained sharply. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 15.27, up 1.23 percent, to 1,252.13, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 24.29, or 1.19 percent, to 2,067.51. Advancing issues led decliners by more than 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange. Bonds were down put recovering some lost ground on Bernanke's comments. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 5.16 percent, up from 5.14 percent Tuesday. The U.S. dollar was lower against other major currencies. Gold prices were higher. Despite continued violence between Israel and Lebanon, crude oil futures fell. A barrel of light crude was quoted at $73.35, down 19 cents, in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In company news, IBM rose $1.99 to $76.25 after it reported second-quarter earnings of $2.02 billion, or $1.30 per share, on revenue of $21.9 billion. Its earnings beat analysts estimates. Bank of America Corp., rose 65 cents to $49.09 after the company, the second-largest U.S. bank, said its acquisition of credit-card company MBNA Corp. helped lift second-quarter profit above Wall Street projections. JPMorgan Chase & Co., rose $1.55, or 3.8 percent, to $42.26 after the nation's third-largest bank said its profit grew strongly in the second quarter. Net income was above analysts' projections. Yahoo Inc. fell $6.12, or 19 percent, to $26.12 after its second-quarter profit declined. Last year's quarter was skewed by Yahoo's sale of its remaining stake in rival Google Inc., while this year's reflected new rules for accounting for stock options. Still, a delay in Yahoo's new advertising platform and slower growth than Google put off investors. UnitedHealth Group Inc., rose $2.26, or 4.7 percent, to $50.66, after the company, the nation's second-largest health insurer, said its second quarter profits rose 26.5 percent. The company benefited from the acquisition of PacifiCare Health Systems and growth across its other businesses. It also raised its guidance for the rest of 2006 and issued bullish 2007 guidance. Volume on the New York Stock Exchange was 178.62 million, up from 171.25 million the previous session. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 16.27, or 2.39 percent, to 697.91. Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 0.44 percent. Bernanke's remarks sent European stocks up sharply. In afternoon trading, Britain's FTSE 100 was up 0.81 percent, Germany's DAX index was up 1.60 percent, and France's CAC-40 was up 1.36 percent. ===================== جميع أسهم مؤشر داو جونز الثلاثين سجلت الارتفاع والمؤشر نفسه ارتفع بأرقام ثلاثية بواقع 120 نقطة وارتفع ناسداك بواقع 25 نقطة وأس أند بي 500 بواقع 18 نقطة أي أن وول ستريت قد قفزت عالياً من الفرح وهذا الفرح جاء بعد تصريحات السيد بن برنانك أمام الكونجرس الأمريكي والتي أكد فيها أنه من المحتمل أن يتباطأ نمو الاقتصاد وهو الأمر الذي سيقلل من ضغوط التضخم وهذه الجملة فسرتها السوق على أن البنك المركزي قد فتح الباب على مصراعيه لإيقاف رفع معدل الفائدة في اجتماعه القادم في شهر أغسطس ولكن هناك أمراً أخر في تصريحات بن برنانك جديد ظهر اليوم وهو أن الرجل أصبح يفضل الغموض فتصريحاته يمكن فهمها على أنها تصريحات متشددة وفي نفس الوقت يمكن فهمها على أنها تصريحات مسالمة فرئيس البنك المركزي قد أكد أن ضغوط التضخم لا تزال موجودة وإن البنك المركزي يشعر بالقلق من ارتفاع الأسعار وهو ما كان متوقعاً من بن برنانك الذي أراد أن يمنح المسئولين داخل البنك ويمنح نفسه شخصياً فرصة لتحديد السياسية النقدية على ضوء البيانات الاقتصادية القادمة. ========= ومن ناحية أخرى فقد فقد الدولار الكثير من مكاسبه بعد تصريحات بن برنانك حيث تراجع أمام الين الياباني إلى 116.92 ين ياباني مقابل 117.83 ين ياباني قبل تصريحات بن برنانك مباشرة كما تراجع أيضا أمام اليورو الأوروبي الذي بيع مقابل 1.2571 دولار مقابل 1.2473 دولار قبل التصريحات . ======== وول ستريت كانت تنتظر الجديد من بن برنانك والرجل لم يخزلها فقد ركز في تصريحاته اليوم على المستقبل وهو أمراً رائع بعد أن كانت جميع تصريحاته الماضية تركز على الماضي والوضع الحالي وهذا الأمر الجديد دفع وول ستريت إلى الانطلاق وتسجيل مكاسب هائلة مباشرة عقب تلك التصريحات واستمرت تلك المكاسب خلال الدقائق الماضية أيضا فقبل لحظات كان مؤشر داو جونز مرتفعاً بواقع 165 نقطة وارتفع مؤشر ناسداك بواقع27 نقطة وارتفع مؤشر أس أند بي 500 بواقع 20 نقطة للتمكن تلك التصريحات بالإضافة إلى بيانات أرباح الشركات القوية مثل بيان شركة IBM وبيان أرباح شركة JPM والتي نجحت في رسم الاطمئنان لدي المستثمرين بشأن مستقبل أرباح الشركات في دفع وول ستريت لهذا الارتفاع. =============== |
31-07-2006, 04:11 PM | #29 |
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تاريخ التسجيل: Jan 2004
المشاركات: 1,280
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Slow Morning Today, Busy Week Ahead:
It is a quiet start to what will be a busy week. Stock futures suggest a lower open. That is a reaction to the strong gains last week more than the news today. Continued tensions in the Middle East are getting some of the blame for the poor tone this morning. Oil prices are up a bit and holding near $73.50 a barrel. But it is hard to believe that the market was expecting much good news on the geopolitical front to develop over the weekend. There are no economic releases yet this morning. The Chicago PMI manufacturing survey will be out at 10:00 ET. The real fireworks will come with the core PCE inflation data tomorrow and the July employment data on Friday. There are only a couple of earnings reports of note. Humana and ArvinMentor had very nice reports. That won't move the market, however. Wal-Mart said that July same-store sales will be at the upper end of their forecast range, but still a tepid 2.4%. The obsession for traders this week is likely to be how the economic releases affect the outlook for the Fed policy decision on August 8. Currently, fed funds futures are pricing in a 32% chance of a rate hike. If the core PCE deflator comes in at 0.3% for June, however, that may go up and the stock market will take a hit. If the core PCE comes in at 0.1%, it will be a boost to stocks. The employment data on Friday is also critical. Expectations are for a gain of 125,000 to 150,000 in payrolls. The increases the past three months have been 92,000 and 121,000. Anything near 100,000 won't alter expectations for Fed policy. The hourly earnings figure in the employment data will also be closely watched. It has been 0.6%, 0.1%, and 0.5% the past three months. Wage increases are somewhat inflationary, although productivity gains offset the impact. Sentiment clearly improved last week. There is more optimism about the longer term outlook. Interest rates are near their peak, whether the Fed moves on August 8 or not. Economic growth has slowed in a manner that suggests a successful soft landing (for more on this, see today's Big Picture column). Earnings growth remains impressive. If inflation starts to ease, the fundamentals are well aligned for market gains by year-end. -- Dick Green, Briefing.com. ============= غدا بمشيئة الله تعالى 1/8 سيصدر تقرير مقياس التضخم PCE وفي حالة ان يكون الرقم 3% فاننا سنتوقع ارتفاع لمعدل سعر الفائدة في الاجتماع القادم 8/8 وفي حالة ان يكون الرقم 1% ستكون ردة فعل الاسواق ايجابيه جدا وستتجه انظار الاسواق الى الاجتماع القادم بكل ايجابيه . كما سيصدر يوم الجمعة بيان التوظيف الذي قد يشكل نوع من الضغط على المصرف الاحتياطي الفدارلي سواء بالايجاب او السلب تجاه رفع معدل سعر الفائدة خلال الاجتماع القادم Aug 8 . =========== من المهم جدا معرفة الرقم الذي سيكون عليه مقياس التضخم لمعرفة اتجاه السوق خلال الفترة القادمة . ========= ترايدر |
04-08-2006, 04:49 PM | #30 |
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تاريخ التسجيل: Jan 2004
المشاركات: 1,280
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Updated: 04-Aug-06 08:55 ET
08:55 ET Payroll Data Increases the Likelihood Fed Will Pause: The critical factor for the near-term stock market outlook is the Fed policy decision next week. The employment data this morning is being interpreted entirely in that light. July nonfarm payrolls rose 113,000. This was a bit less than the expected 125,000 to 150,000 increase. The initial reaction in the stock futures to the release was bullish. That is a valid response. The payroll numbers reflect moderate economic growth. The data decrease the likelihood of a Fed rate hike. The data are not flat-out bullish. Hourly earnings rose 0.4%. This follows a strong 0.5% increase in June and leaves the year-over-year gain at 3.8%. Wage increases are clearly on the rise. That can add to inflation pressures. Wage hikes are partially offset by productivity gains, but a faster rate of wage hikes will be of some concern to the Fed. The data reflect a slower rate of economic growth, but there is no indication of a recession. A 113,000 monthly increase in payrolls is almost exactly a 1% annual rate of increase. Coupled with 4% wage growth, consumer spending power is rising at about a 5% annual rate. That isn't much above total inflation, but it is enough to keep real consumer spending, and the economy, on a modest growth path. The data are consistent with the soft landing that the Fed desires. Our view is that the Fed will not raise rates at the meeting on Tuesday. Economic growth is slowing, and inflation rates need time to ease. Fed funds futures now incorporate only about a 20% chance of a rate hike on Tuesday. The Fed is cognizant of the fact that the market is not expecting a rate hike, and should take this opportunity to show that it is not stuck in a rut of always raising rates. Such action would not preclude them from raising rates again later in the year. The stock market rally last week and this week incorporates optimism that the Fed won't raise rates on Tuesday. There is therefore no guarantee that the market will rally even if the Fed does pause, particularly if the policy statement makes it clear that further rate hikes may be needed. Nevertheless, the underlying tone has clearly improved. -- Dick Green, Briefing.co ========================= اوضحت الارقام الاقتصادية الصادرة ان الاقتصاد يتباطأ ولكن لم يصل الى مرحلة الكساد لذا فانه من المرجح عدم رفع سعر الفائدة خلال اجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي القادم في 8 اوقست . ردة فعل الاسواق كانت ايجابيه جداً . ============================ ترايدر |
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