الفدرالي الأمريكي يوم 30 ابريل 2008م ، ونقطة تحول تاريخية ..!!

[سهيل الدراج]

المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة مساهم راااايق

قرات 15 صفحه وسهره رائعه مع هذا الموضوع الشيق

تمنيت انه ما ينتهي

اتشرف ان اكتب بموضوع انت كاتبه

بارك الله فيك ورحم الله والديك وبارك لك في ذريتك

اخوك

جزيت خيرا اخى الحبيب ..
وانا اتشرف ان تكون من قرائي في هذا الموضوع الذى احاول فيه وضع المتداول فى صورة مايجرى في العالم ..

تحياتى لك ..

[سهيل الدراج]

( نقطة تحول تاريخية )

Bernanke Says Rate `Well Positioned,' Watching Dollar


By Scott Lanman

June 3 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled he's done cutting interest rates for now and raised his biggest concerns yet about the inflationary effects of a dollar down 16 percent in the past year against the euro.

The Fed is working with the Treasury to ``carefully monitor developments in foreign exchange markets'' and is aware of the effect of the dollar's decline on inflation and price expectations, Bernanke said today in his first speech on the economic outlook in two months. In addition, interest rates are ``well positioned'' to promote growth and stable prices, he said.

The dollar climbed more than 1 cent against the euro and the price of gold dropped almost $14 after Bernanke's remarks. Policy makers lowered the benchmark rate 3.25 percentage points since September to 2 percent to alleviate the damage to the economy from the credit crisis and housing recession. ``I can't recall such a strong defense of the dollar from a Fed chairman,'' said Sophia Drossos, a currency strategist at Morgan Stanley in New York, who used to work at the New York Fed, where she helped manage the central bank's foreign-exchange holdings. ``The Fed is putting its marker down in letting the market know that a weaker dollar would be detrimental.''

Bernanke, 54, spoke via satellite to the International Monetary Conference in Barcelona, Spain. He is talking on a panel with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and Bank of Spain Governor Miguel Fernandez Ordonez.

`Moderate Growth'
``For now, policy seems well positioned to promote moderate growth and price stability over time,'' Bernanke said. ``We will, of course, be watching the evolving situation closely and are prepared to act as needed to meet our dual mandate.'' The remarks come as the central bank's optimism that inflation is abating and growth will start to pick up has been dashed by the unexpected surge in oil prices, which is eroding the potential benefit to the economy from more than $100 billion in federal tax rebates. The resulting increase in inflation expectations is also getting the attention of Fed officials.

The dollar strengthened to $1.5454 against the euro from $1.5607 today after weakening by 16 percent in the past year. Crude oil fell to $126.29 a barrel in New York at 9:59 a.m. from $127.98 in the minutes before Bernanke's comments were released at 9 a.m. Yields on Treasury securities rose, and U.S. stock indexes gained.

``We are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar for inflation and inflation expectations,'' Bernanke said. The Fed's commitment to price stability and maximum employment ``will be key factors ensuring that the dollar remains a strong and stable currency.''

Currency Policy
Bernanke and other Fed officials, when asked for their opinion on the dollar, tend to defer to the U.S. Treasury Department, which is responsible for the country's currency policy. The Fed chief meets weekly with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who yesterday repeated his backing for a ``strong dollar.'' ..'I believe the long-term economic fundamentals will be reflected in our currency,'' Paulson said in Abu Dhabi.

Robert Eisenbeis, former head of research at the Atlanta Fed, said he reads the comments as saying that ``more rate cuts would hurt the dollar and that would have negative feedback effects to our inflation situation.'' "``I don't read it as saying that intervention is on the horizon,'' said Eisenbeis, who is now chief monetary economist at Cumberland Advisors Inc.

Pare Rates
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29-30 meeting showed that Fed policy makers, out of concern for inflation, wouldn't pare rates further even with an economic contraction in the first half.

The decision to lower the main rate by a quarter point was a ``close call'' for most FOMC members, the minutes said. The reduction capped off 2.25 percentage points of reductions this year, including cuts of 0.75 point in January and in March. Traders expect the Fed to leave the overnight interbank lending rate at 2 percent through October.

``We have eased monetary policy substantially and proactively,'' Bernanke said. In his last comprehensive speech on the economic outlook, Bernanke said, ``monetary and fiscal policies are in train that should support a return to growth in the second half of this year and next year.'' He made the remarks on April 2 during congressional testimony to the Joint Economic Committee.

`Remain Strained'
Today, Bernanke said financial-market conditions ``remain strained,'' and consumers face ``significant headwinds'' from declining home prices, a weaker labor market, stricter lending standards and higher energy costs.

A Commerce Department report last week showed that the U.S. economy grew more than previously estimated in the first quarter as Americans shunned imports and exports climbed to a record. The 0.9 percent gain at an annual pace in gross domestic product compares with an advance estimate of 0.6 percent.

The second quarter is ``likely to be relatively weak,'' Bernanke said, leaving out his mention in the April speech of a possible contraction. The second half may have ``somewhat better economic conditions,'' and growth may pick up further in 2009, he said. House prices may be an especially strong force in the economy because of their influence on consumer spending and financial markets. Investors already anticipate some further declines in prices. Foreclosure filings increased 65 percent in April from a year earlier, RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based seller of default data, reported last month.

`Growth Risks'
``Until the housing market, and particularly house prices, shows clearer signs of stabilization, growth risks will remain to the downside,'' Bernanke said. ``Recent increases in oil prices pose additional downside risks to growth.''

Soaring oil costs, which officials deem to be a result of supply and demand rather than speculation or reduced interest rates, may impede a possible rebound in growth in the second half. Crude oil has climbed 93 percent in the past year, reaching a record $135.09 a barrel on May 22. Gasoline prices have also hit a record, impairing spending by consumers who are already buffeted by a slump in home values.

``The possibility that commodity prices will continue to rise is an important risk to the inflation forecast,'' Bernanke said. Higher public inflation expectations are also a ``significant upside risk'' to prices and may ``ultimately become self-confirming,'' he said. In April, Fed policy makers revised up their projections for total consumer price gains this year by a full percentage point to a range of 3.1 percent to 3.4 percent. Food prices rose 5.1 percent in the year ended April, the most since December 1990, the Labor Department said.

مختصر الخبر ..

السيد برنانكي ( رئيس مجلس الاحتياطى الفدرالي الأمريكي ) يعلنها صريحة انه انتهى من اجراءات خفض الفائدة ، وان الفائدة ستتوقف عند مستوياتها الحالية لأنها مناسبة لدفع النمو في الاقتصاد الامريكي والمحافظة على السيولة .. ولكنه رفع درجة الخطر من الضغوط التضخمية التى يواجهها الاقتصاد الامريكي والعالمي ، وخصوصا بعد انخفاض الدولار بمقدار 16% خلال السنة الماضية .. وكان هذا الخطاب هو الأول لبرنانكي منذ شهرين وتحدث فيه عن رؤيته للوضع الاقتصادي الأمريكي ، ونقل هذا الخطاب من برشلونه باسبانيا عبر الستالايت للاسواق المالية التى تشعر بالقلق من استمرار انخفاض الدولار وارتفاع السلع الاساسية والمعادن والنفط والأغذية ..

وقد ارتفع الدولار بمقدار 1% ( 1.5450 ) امام اليورو بعد خطاب برنانكي واشارته الى توقف خفض الفائدة ، كما انخفض الذهب بمقدار 14$ ليسجل 883$ للأوقية ، في حين انخفض النفط الى 125.80$ للبرميل متأثرا بارتفاع الدولار .. وبذلك يكون برنانكي قد اشار صراحة ودون لبس الى انتهاء دورة خفض الفائدة ( نقطة تحول تاريخية ) ..

تمنياتى للجميع بالتوفيق والسداد ..

[المُزني]

المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة سهيل الدراج

( نقطة تحول تاريخية )

Bernanke Says Rate `Well Positioned,' Watching Dollar


By Scott Lanman

June 3 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled he's done cutting interest rates for now and raised his biggest concerns yet about the inflationary effects of a dollar down 16 percent in the past year against the euro.

The Fed is working with the Treasury to ``carefully monitor developments in foreign exchange markets'' and is aware of the effect of the dollar's decline on inflation and price expectations, Bernanke said today in his first speech on the economic outlook in two months. In addition, interest rates are ``well positioned'' to promote growth and stable prices, he said.

The dollar climbed more than 1 cent against the euro and the price of gold dropped almost $14 after Bernanke's remarks. Policy makers lowered the benchmark rate 3.25 percentage points since September to 2 percent to alleviate the damage to the economy from the credit crisis and housing recession. ``I can't recall such a strong defense of the dollar from a Fed chairman,'' said Sophia Drossos, a currency strategist at Morgan Stanley in New York, who used to work at the New York Fed, where she helped manage the central bank's foreign-exchange holdings. ``The Fed is putting its marker down in letting the market know that a weaker dollar would be detrimental.''

Bernanke, 54, spoke via satellite to the International Monetary Conference in Barcelona, Spain. He is talking on a panel with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and Bank of Spain Governor Miguel Fernandez Ordonez.

`Moderate Growth'
``For now, policy seems well positioned to promote moderate growth and price stability over time,'' Bernanke said. ``We will, of course, be watching the evolving situation closely and are prepared to act as needed to meet our dual mandate.'' The remarks come as the central bank's optimism that inflation is abating and growth will start to pick up has been dashed by the unexpected surge in oil prices, which is eroding the potential benefit to the economy from more than $100 billion in federal tax rebates. The resulting increase in inflation expectations is also getting the attention of Fed officials.

The dollar strengthened to $1.5454 against the euro from $1.5607 today after weakening by 16 percent in the past year. Crude oil fell to $126.29 a barrel in New York at 9:59 a.m. from $127.98 in the minutes before Bernanke's comments were released at 9 a.m. Yields on Treasury securities rose, and U.S. stock indexes gained.

``We are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar for inflation and inflation expectations,'' Bernanke said. The Fed's commitment to price stability and maximum employment ``will be key factors ensuring that the dollar remains a strong and stable currency.''

Currency Policy
Bernanke and other Fed officials, when asked for their opinion on the dollar, tend to defer to the U.S. Treasury Department, which is responsible for the country's currency policy. The Fed chief meets weekly with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who yesterday repeated his backing for a ``strong dollar.'' ..'I believe the long-term economic fundamentals will be reflected in our currency,'' Paulson said in Abu Dhabi.

Robert Eisenbeis, former head of research at the Atlanta Fed, said he reads the comments as saying that ``more rate cuts would hurt the dollar and that would have negative feedback effects to our inflation situation.'' "``I don't read it as saying that intervention is on the horizon,'' said Eisenbeis, who is now chief monetary economist at Cumberland Advisors Inc.

Pare Rates
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29-30 meeting showed that Fed policy makers, out of concern for inflation, wouldn't pare rates further even with an economic contraction in the first half.

The decision to lower the main rate by a quarter point was a ``close call'' for most FOMC members, the minutes said. The reduction capped off 2.25 percentage points of reductions this year, including cuts of 0.75 point in January and in March. Traders expect the Fed to leave the overnight interbank lending rate at 2 percent through October.

``We have eased monetary policy substantially and proactively,'' Bernanke said. In his last comprehensive speech on the economic outlook, Bernanke said, ``monetary and fiscal policies are in train that should support a return to growth in the second half of this year and next year.'' He made the remarks on April 2 during congressional testimony to the Joint Economic Committee.

`Remain Strained'
Today, Bernanke said financial-market conditions ``remain strained,'' and consumers face ``significant headwinds'' from declining home prices, a weaker labor market, stricter lending standards and higher energy costs.

A Commerce Department report last week showed that the U.S. economy grew more than previously estimated in the first quarter as Americans shunned imports and exports climbed to a record. The 0.9 percent gain at an annual pace in gross domestic product compares with an advance estimate of 0.6 percent.

The second quarter is ``likely to be relatively weak,'' Bernanke said, leaving out his mention in the April speech of a possible contraction. The second half may have ``somewhat better economic conditions,'' and growth may pick up further in 2009, he said. House prices may be an especially strong force in the economy because of their influence on consumer spending and financial markets. Investors already anticipate some further declines in prices. Foreclosure filings increased 65 percent in April from a year earlier, RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based seller of default data, reported last month.

`Growth Risks'
``Until the housing market, and particularly house prices, shows clearer signs of stabilization, growth risks will remain to the downside,'' Bernanke said. ``Recent increases in oil prices pose additional downside risks to growth.''

Soaring oil costs, which officials deem to be a result of supply and demand rather than speculation or reduced interest rates, may impede a possible rebound in growth in the second half. Crude oil has climbed 93 percent in the past year, reaching a record $135.09 a barrel on May 22. Gasoline prices have also hit a record, impairing spending by consumers who are already buffeted by a slump in home values.

``The possibility that commodity prices will continue to rise is an important risk to the inflation forecast,'' Bernanke said. Higher public inflation expectations are also a ``significant upside risk'' to prices and may ``ultimately become self-confirming,'' he said. In April, Fed policy makers revised up their projections for total consumer price gains this year by a full percentage point to a range of 3.1 percent to 3.4 percent. Food prices rose 5.1 percent in the year ended April, the most since December 1990, the Labor Department said.

مختصر الخبر ..

السيد برنانكي ( رئيس مجلس الاحتياطى الفدرالي الأمريكي ) يعلنها صريحة انه انتهى من اجراءات خفض الفائدة ، وان الفائدة ستتوقف عند مستوياتها الحالية لأنها مناسبة لدفع النمو في الاقتصاد الامريكي والمحافظة على السيولة .. ولكنه رفع درجة الخطر من الضغوط التضخمية التى يواجهها الاقتصاد الامريكي والعالمي ، وخصوصا بعد انخفاض الدولار بمقدار 16% خلال السنة الماضية .. وكان هذا الخطاب هو الأول لبرنانكي منذ شهرين وتحدث فيه عن رؤيته للوضع الاقتصادي الأمريكي ، ونقل هذا الخطاب من برشلونه باسبانيا عبر الستالايت للاسواق المالية التى تشعر بالقلق من استمرار انخفاض الدولار وارتفاع السلع الاساسية والمعادن والنفط والأغذية ..

وقد ارتفع الدولار بمقدار 1% ( 1.5450 ) امام اليورو بعد خطاب برنانكي واشارته الى توقف خفض الفائدة ، كما انخفض الذهب بمقدار 14$ ليسجل 883$ للأوقية ، في حين انخفض النفط الى 125.80$ للبرميل متأثرا بارتفاع الدولار .. وبذلك يكون برنانكي قد اشار صراحة ودون لبس الى انتهاء دورة خفض الفائدة ( نقطة تحول تاريخية ) ..

تمنياتى للجميع بالتوفيق والسداد ..

ابو ماريا ،،،،،، البوصلة خربانه !!!

نقطة تحول لمن !

الدولار من هابط الى صاعد ؟
الذهب من صاعد الى هابط ؟
النفط من صاعد الى هابط ؟
الحديد من صاعد الى هابط ؟!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! الله ينتقم من CEO سابك
التضخم (ماعرفنا دي الكلمة الا من قريب) من صاعد الى هابط ؟

الإقتصاد العالمي من صاعد الى هابط !؟

!!

مشكلتنا جالسين في دوامه

[اوديs8]

بارك الله بك , شكراً أخي الكريم وبحول الله يتحسن الحال ذبحنا الحديد الله يرخص الحديد ونكمل مشاريعنا وتعمر بلاد المسلمين وان شاء الله يكتشفو مناجم حديد ونحاس عندنا ونرتاح من الاستيراد تحياتي:dinmt:

[المسافر555]

بارك الله فيك

ورزقنا واياك من واسع فضله

[د سعد]

من خلال فهمي لكلام سابق للأستاذ سهيل
أن التضخم سيستمر
وارتفاع النفط والمعادن لن يتوقف على عدم خفض الفائدة

[sagr7]

يعطيك العافية ...........

[سهيل الدراج]

المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة المُزني

ابو ماريا ،،،،،، البوصلة خربانه !!!

نقطة تحول لمن !

الدولار من هابط الى صاعد ؟
الذهب من صاعد الى هابط ؟
النفط من صاعد الى هابط ؟
الحديد من صاعد الى هابط ؟!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! الله ينتقم من CEO سابك
التضخم (ماعرفنا دي الكلمة الا من قريب) من صاعد الى هابط ؟

الإقتصاد العالمي من صاعد الى هابط !؟

!!

مشكلتنا جالسين في دوامه

ايه والله انك صادك .. فعلاً الجميع يعيش في دوامة ..!!

طبعاً هذا الخطاب انا نقلته هنا ليتكامل مع الموضوع ، الذى اشرنا فيه الى نقطة التحول التاريخية في توقف خفض الفائدة .. الاقتصاد الامريكي يمر بمشكلة عويصة جداً ، فسبق ان تحدثت ان اجراءات خفض الفائدة لم ولن تجدى نفعاً ، لأنك لو خفضت الفائدة الى الصفر فان البنوك لن تقرض شيئاً .. البنوك اليوم تستنجد بالصناديق السيادية لتدعمها من الانهيار ..
طبعاً الاشارة الصريحة التى صدرت لأول مرة من الفدرالي ستؤدى بالضرورة الى رفع الدولار ، ولكن أؤكد من جديد ان هذا التحسن سيكون ضئيلاً وسيكون لفترة محدودة جداً ، وسيعود من جديد الى الانخفاض ، لأن الدولار هو انعكاس طبيعى لمشاكل الاقتصاد الامريكي العميقة .. الآن شعر الفدرالي بخطورة التضخم ، وبدأت الشركات العالمية تعلن وتتسابق على رفع اسعارها مثل شركة كوداك التى اعلنت عن رفع الاسعار بنسبة 20% ، بينما شركة جنرال موتورز اعلنت يوم امس عن اغلاق 4 مصانع في امريكا الشمالية ، وانها ستبيع جزء أو كل من مصنع " همر " التابع لها ، واعلنت عن فصل 20.000 موظف .. فورد هى الاخرى وأمريكا ايرلاينز للطيران وشركة يوهول للنقل وشركة بوينج جميعها بدأت تدق ناقوس الخطر ..

اسعار المعادن والنفط والذهب والسلع قد تتحسن اسعارها لفترة بسيطة خلال الايام العشرة القادمة ان استمر الدولار في التحسن ..

[سهيل الدراج]

المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة د سعد

من خلال فهمي لكلام سابق للأستاذ سهيل
أن التضخم سيستمر
وارتفاع النفط والمعادن لن يتوقف على عدم خفض الفائدة

نعم صحيح اخى الفاضل .. وان الأمر لن يخلو من تصحيحات خفيفة ثم يعود الارتفاع من جديد للمعادن والنفط طالما بقى التضخم في ارتفاع ..
الحل الوحيد هو دخول الاقتصاد العالمي في ركود عميق يخفف من الطلب على هذه السلع ، ليعود التوازن الى العالم من جديد .. وهذا ما اتوقعه باذن الله في وقت ما خلال النصف الثاني من عام 2008م ..

تحياتى لك ..

[yragad]

اية تصحيح استاذ سهيل السالفه ركود الاقتصاد الامريكي خفض سعر الفايده ماهو الا طوق نجاه وماجاب المرجو منه واعتقد ان الحل تفكيك الكتله الامريكيه الى دويلات