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http://rosemanblog.sovereignsociety...ast_bear_m.html

الرابط اعلاة للاطلاع

اتمنى ان تقرأة بتأني وخصوصا ما بين السطور

التويجري تكلم عن بعض التقارير التي وصلت له بان السوق جاهز للاستثمار الخارجي او من هذا القبيل انا لم اشاهد البرنامج بصراحة لنرجع للموضوع الذي بالرابط

November 22, 2006
The Last Bear Market Now
Over the last several weeks I've been writing about the dearth of contrarian stock-market values in the world today. Almost daily, world markets are hitting new all-time or six-year highs since September. In fact, most European and U.S. large-cap benchmarks now trade at their highest levels since the second year of the 2000-2002 bear-market. But only one region in the world has not participated, still languihsing from the blows inflicted by the bear-market last February: The Gulf states.

According to Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI), the Gulf markets of Dubai, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Oman are down by almost 50% since peaking earlier in February. And over the last four weeks alone, several Gulf bourses have resumed their downward spiral, including a 15% plunge in the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia's market has nosedived since peaking in February, down a dizzy 64%.

Normally, meltdowns like this would definitely draw portfolio flows from distressed-based investors like myself. The Gulf markets, in percentage terms, certainly trade at similar levels to markets in Latin America following the Mexican peso devaluation in December 1994 or the Asian economic crisis of 1997-1998. The time to start buying would be right now after huge double-digit declines.

I think we're almost at the point of maximum pessimism in the Gulf. The main problem I have with this region is the lack of trading volume. In smaller markets like Bahrain and Oman, trading volumes are now below $10 million dollars a day -- terribly illiquid. Basically, if you buy stocks in the Gulf now, you'd better be planted there for a long time because liquidity is poor.

On the plus side, the region does harbor strong economic performance. Trade balances are mostly in surplus territory at a combined $200 billion dollars, or nearly 30% of the region's GDP. Plus, in October, Moody's upgraded the sovereign bond ratings of the six Gulf states. Excluding Saudi Arabian equities, valuations in the region now trade at a very respectable 13 times trailing earnings, below the emerging markets average and about 40% less than major markets, including the S&P 500 Index and the Dow.

If you want to play in the Gulf, I suggest a specialized offshore mutual fund dedicated to a basket of these markets. In 2007, I'll be plugging the world's best-performing regional fund in the Gulf in my Global Mutual Fund Investor (GMFI).

I'll be off tomorrow for the holidays but back again on Monday, November 27.

A Happy Thanksgiving to my American readers. Have a great long weekend.

وياويلكم يالهوامير لو جوكم وانتوا بهذة الاسعار كم اتمنى ان ياتي من يسحب البساط من تحتكم


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