توقعات ل 2005 من مشعوذ

[جمشيد]

2005 Will Be A Good Year: 2005 is bound to a good year for the stock market. Why? Because all years that end in a "5" have been good years. There is no rational explanation for it, but the years ending in "5" have all been years of positive returns for the stock market. The following table illustrates the total returns of the market, measured by the S&P500 since 1905. (The S&P500 did not exist prior to 1950, the earlier historical returns are reconstructed returns.) Year Total Return %
1905 7.0
1915 14.0
1925 13.0
1935 46.0
1945 35.7
1955 31.0
1965 12.3
1975 36.9
1985 31.1
1995 34.0

التوقعات لا تمت للتحليل والاقتصاد بأي شيء ولو اراد المشرف حذفها لأنها مضلله له ذلك

[ترايدر]

With little company news to discuss this week, the economy has been a focus. However, with a small amount of traders actually working this week, the news has not had a major impact on trading. On Wednesday, existing home sales data and the petroleum inventory info garnered the attention. On Thursday, jobless claims and the NAPM-Chicago report were digested. Friday will not see any reports released, but traders will be preparing for a number of key releases next week, including the employment situation report.

Existing home sales rose to an annualized rate of 6.94 million in November, well above expectations for a reading near 6.75 million. On a year over year basis, existing home sales are up 13.2 percent. Though the Fed has been consistently raising the Fed funds rate, mortgage rates have remained below six percent, leaving an opportunity for consumers to buy homes. As rates rise in 2005, new and existing home sales will fall off dramatically. The hope is that as the housing sector sees slower growth, other areas of the economy will pick up.

One sign that home sales will remain strong in the next month or so came from the mortgage applications report Wednesday. Applications rose 2.7 percent, leaving the index near the high of its range for purchases. As rates rise, refinancings are seeing the largest hit, with this index falling 7.9 percent during the week.

Oil prices have been volatile this past week, though Wednesday’s inventory data had little to do with the movement of crude. Inventories for the week ending Dec. 24 fell by 0.8 million barrels. However, this was inline with expectations, creating little movement in crude prices. The major factor going forward for oil prices will be demand and what OPEC decides to do with production levels. One thing is for sure and that is that economists do not expect $20 oil prices any time soon or possibly ever again.

On Thursday, jobless claims for the week ending Dec. 25 fell by 5,000 to 326K. This was better than expected, though economists don’t read too much into holiday results. Nonetheless, the feeling is that nonfarm payrolls will rise more than 200K in December. We’ll find out for sure a week from Friday when the payrolls data is released. For the week ending Dec. 18, continuing claims rose by 29,000, but this follows a week that reached a new multi-year low.

The NAPM-Chicago report fell to 61.2 percent in December from 65.2 percent in November. However, any reading above 50 is considered expansionary, so the Chicago area is still seeing strong manufacturing growth. This doesn’t mean there weren’t some concerns in the report, including the employment component. This measure fell to 49.1 from 60.8. Another concern is the high level for the prices paid index, which sits at 84.4.

Overall, the economy has been very strong in 2005, providing strength to the stock market as well. The hope is that oil prices will flatten in 2005 and the employment situation will improve. Inflation has been a concern, but so far it hasn’t been passed on to the end consumer. The fall of the dollar will continue to get attention, but most economists agree an orderly fall is not a problem for the economy. There will be economic events that will be a concern in 2005, as there always is. However, the hope is that the Fed will do its part to keep inflation low, while allowing growth to occur. If this does happen, then the stock market should continue to see consistent gains.

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