29/6/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

[walid]

The gains of the US stocks could continue today after the Greek parliament had passed the planned austerities measures by the Greek government which had the acceptance of EU and IMF for giving Greece the second part valued 12 billions euros from their planned 110 billions euros nearly a year ago for supporting it.
This required step by the lenders was very important for restoring back confidence in the markets which have suffered by the worries about the Greek debt recently as it is to help Greece to avert default over the short term because of the lenders insistence on having an agreement in the Greek parliament on these required measures in the forms of cutting the governmental spending, hiking the taxes and going forward in privatization public assets in Greece by lending it more funds.
This acceptance could calm down the concerns about other European ailing economies by debt in the euro area such as Ireland and Portugal which required the IMF and the EU financing assistance too.
The Single currency which has been possessed by the developments of this crisis recently could rise over 1.44 versus the greenback after this agreement announcement which has been expected since last week ability of the Greek government to gain confidence by 155 majority to 143 and this 155 majority has been repeated again today but this time against just 138
while the greenback was under pressure by improving of the markets risk appetite with optimism of this new approving today which has come accompanied with surprising rebound of US pending home sales figure of May rising by 8.2% while the markets were waiting for just 2.4% after initial collapse in April by 11.6% has been revised down too to 11.3% reducing the market worries about the US housing market.
God Willing, The single currency is expected to face resisting levels now at 1.4495, 1.455, 1.4651 then 1.4695 whereas it has formed its recent lower high below 1.4939 which exposed it to be under technical pressure to fall before finding a bottom at 1.4072 and in the case of getting down again from here, it can meet supporting levels at 1.4238 then 1.4102 which is forming now the pair higher low above 1.4072 over the short term supporting the pair currently to get over 1.441

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The Canadian dollar could add to its gains versus the greenback underpinned by higher than expected Canadian CPI of May rising to 3.7% y/y while the markets were waiting for 3.3% as the same at April and also the core figure excluding the food and energy has come up to 1.8% yearly from 1.6% in April while it was expected to get down to 1.5% yearly following rising of April Canadian raw materials prices index too by 6.8% yearly from 5.8% to show that there is growing pricing power in Canada currently can increase the pressure on the BOC to hike the interest again after keeping it unchanged at 1% since 8th September 2010 following the ECB without waiting for the Fed
Specially, as these growing inflation upside risks come accompanied with improving of the Canadian economic performance as we have seen recently the Canadian capacity utilization of the first quarter of this year surging to 79% from 76.8% in the last quarter of 2010 and this figure came also after Ivey PMI of May which rose significantly to 69.1 from 57.7 while the median forecast was referring to 60 to show strong improving of the Canadian industrial performance with declining of the Canadian unemployment rate to 7.4% in May from 7.6% in April.
The Canadian dollar has found also support versus the greenback which has been hit in the recent few days by improving of the markets risk appetite because of the markets optimism about solving the Greek debt problems in the short term with exposing it to default after the Greek government could gain confidence by 155 majority to 143 and this 155 majority has been repeated again yesterday on its austerities measures but this time against just 138 to avert default over the short term because of the lenders insistence on having an agreement in the Greek parliament on these required measures in the forms of cutting the governmental spending, hiking the taxes and going forward in privatization public assets in Greece by giving it the second part valued 12 billions euros from the EU and the IMF planned 110 billions euros package which has been prepared nearly a year ago for supporting it reducing its exposure to the bonds markets directly.
This improving of the investors' risks could also help the oil prices to rebound supporting back the Canadian dollar as a commodities currency after it had been under pressure by the EIA announcement of releasing 60 million oil barrels next month to offset the shortage by the riots in Libya.
That's beside significant decreasing of US oil inventories to the week ending on 24th of June by 4.4 m barrels from shortage by 1.5 m a week earlier while the markets were waiting for decreasing by just 1.7 and also its gasoline inventories which looked negatively impacted by the summer driving season demand has got down by 1.4 m barrels while the market was waiting for rising by 0.77 after decreasing a week earlier by 1.5 m barrels to strengthen the oil prices and the Canadian dollar which dragged down the greenback from 0.991 to be traded below 0.97 reaching 0.9623 breaking 09669 and 0.964 supporting levels and by God's will, further downward pressure on this pair can lead to test 0.9512 again then 0.9444 which has been reached on the second of last May by the turmoil which has hit the commodities markets after the labor holidays and caused strong profit taken waves by the investors while its next resistance is now at 0.991 and the breaking of it can lead to the parity level which can be followed by another resistance at 1.006 then 1.0379 over a longer range.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

Downgrading the credit rating of Portugal by Moody's 4 notches to Ba2 from Baa1 with a negative outlook could contain the market sentiment putting pressure on the single currency following warning from S&P credit rating agency about the direction of France to help Greece by supporting its private sector for reinvesting its holding of short term debts of Greece to longer periods ones in what can be turning around a direct announcement of restructuring the Greece's debt by France which will be considered a default by the credit rating agencies which can put pressure again on the single currency in the coming period.
The single currency is trading now at 1.445 After it could reach 1.4576 versus the greenback in the beginning of the week on the European Fin ministers' approving of giving Greece the second part valued 12 billions euros of the EU and the IMF planned 110 billions euros package which has been prepared nearly a year ago for supporting it reducing its exposure to the bonds markets directly.
The single currency has started to rise from 1.4102 versus the greenback recently taking advantage from the Greek government ability to gain the confidence of the Greek parliament by 155 majority to 143 as it has been interpreted into another succeeding on approving of its austerity plans and that's what has been done by this same majority to avert default over the short term because of the lenders insistence on having an agreement in the Greek parliament on these required measures in the forms of cutting the governmental spending, hiking the taxes and going forward in privatization public assets in Greece by giving Greece more funds.
God Willing, The single currency is expected to face resisting levels versus the greenback now at 1.4576 then 1.4695 whereas it has formed its recent lower high below 1.4939 which is the next resisting level and the pair higher high and these double tops have put the pair under technical pressure to fall before finding a bottom at 1.4072 and in the case of getting down further from here, it can meet supporting levels at 1.4326, 1.4238 then 1.4102 which has formed the pair higher bottom above 1.4072 which helped the pair to rebound again breaking 1.441 to where we are trading now.
The markets will be waiting tomorrow for the ECB's interest rate decision which is expected to be hiking the interest by another 0.25% to be 1.5% as Trichet has come back saying in the press conference following 9th June meeting that strong vigilance is warranted from saying after May meeting which always refers to a coming hiking decision instead of saying that the ECB is very closely watching the prices which always hints to the markets that there is no close rate hike decision. So, it is important also to wait for Trichet's language in the press conference following the ECB meeting to know more about the single currency interest rate outlook and the current ECB's economic assessment of the inflation upside risks and also the growth of the euro area which is expected to show today rising by 2.5% yearly in the first quarter of this year.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The sterling came under further pressure today following the release of June UK CPI which decreased to 4.2% yearly while the markets were waiting for 4.5% like April and May. The cable has reached today 1.578 after breaking 1.5911 yesterday and falling further can be met by supporting level at 1.5744 and breaking below it can lead to test 1.5342 whereas it could form its bottom to 1.6744 while going up from here now can be met by resistance at 1.614 can be followed by another resistance at 1.6261
From anther side, the greenback could add to its gains underpinned by falling of the markets risk appetite weighing down on the equities markets by worries about the US labor market and growing concerns about the Italian financial situation containing the market sentiment while Greece is still facing default despite its governmental succeeding in having the parliament confidence and approving on its new austerity measures which forced the single currency to fall below 1.4 reaching 1.3837 today before finding support by the announcement of having an EU summit this Friday and after succeeding of Greek bond auction and also another Italian bonds auction but it was expensive on the current increasing worries about Italian's debt which came down also with approving of the opposing middle left party in Italy of taking austerity measures for reducing the budget deficit helping the single currency again rebound getting over 1.4 versus the greenback which has come under pressure by bigger than expected trade balance deficit release of May reaching $50.2B from 43.6 while the market was waiting for just 44B.
God willing the single currency next supporting level versus the greenback is at 1.3837 after breaking below 1.3965 and 1.3854 supporting levels this week and falling further can be met by further supporting levels at 1.3523 then 1.3424 while rising from here can face resistance at 1.4077, 1.4224 and 1.4337
The markets are waiting ahead today for the release of the Fed's recent meeting minutes which are waited to show the markets why the Fed has not decided to inject more funds and also the markets want to know more from these minutes about the current Fed's appreciation of the growing inflation pressure in US and whether or not it was the reason behind this decision.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The US equities Markets came back under pressure after Bernanke's try to redirect the markets which cheered by the existing possibility of supporting the US economy by another quantitive easing plan as he said that can be on circumstances we do not face currently and he has added clearly that the fed is not ready to take such a step currently in his second day of hit semiannual testimony in front of the financial services committee on the house after saying the first day that everything should be on the table.
The greenback could be supported after these comments which hurt the risk apatite which has been pressure by another new warning of downgrading the US credit rating maintaining its negative outlook which has changed from stable in last April and this new warning came following Moody's warning of downgrading the US credit rating to contain the markets sentiment highlighting the risk of not raising the $14.29 trillion ceiling of US debt which has been already reached on 16th of May as what has been announced by the Timothy Geithner.
In this same time, china which has more than a trillion of US debt has announced its concerning too asking for raising up this limit while this request is still not approved by majority of the republicans of the house who are asking for cutting the governmental spending by at least 2 trillions before accepting this request which can be the market worrying issue in the coming future with the worries about the debt rising up globally weighing down on the business sentiment which can find difficulty in have new support from the Fed which can find difficulty too in buying more bonds for stimulating the growth which has actually shown signs of weakness recently and weak performance of the labor market and cutting the governmental spending currently will have a direct negative impact on the US GDP which has been already downgraded by the Fed following its recent meeting to be from 2.7% to 2.9% y/y in 2011 and to be from 3.3% to 3.7% in 2012
And from another side, the prices upside risks can be another obstacle in the face of any new easing action by the Fed with the US CPI rising in a continuous way in the recent moths from worrying about the deflation in last November supporting the Fed to take it's Q2 plan with CPI rising by just 1.1% yearly but this rising has started to speed up by 1.5% in December, 1.6% in January, 2.1% February, 2.7% in March, 3.2% in April and 3.6% in May while we are waiting it to show again today 3.6% in June.
So, It looks now with this current inflation pressure that solving a debt crisis can be harder than solving the credit crisis which is one of the important reasons of the debt crisis which is facing Euro zone strongly currently and can face also US which has adopted strong easing stance for keeping the economy up in the most possible fast way but this was on the account of its financial position again by the way of spending and buying as much as you can hurting the US balance sheet for bailing out too big financial institutions of it in order to driving up the markets confidence and getting out of the recession and now with the worries about the economic growth increases again, the debt issue has risen up containing the markets sentiment which can lead the US economy to stagflation risks which can cap the Fed from taking new decision as what has been done in UK capping BOE from taking new decision since November 2009.
The gold surely could get use of these worries about the debt problems which included the Italian financial position this week too and as a strong options to the investors' who are looking for a hedge against market risks and inflation too, it could get over its previous high at 1574 reaching 1593 yesterday supported also by rising of the Chinese CPI to 6.2% y/y from 5.5% while the market was waiting for 6.2% last Saturday to start this week strongly underpinned and by God's will, further rising up from here can be met by resistance now at 1593$ again, while there can be another expected resistance at 1600$ per ounce psychological level while getting down from here can be meet now supporting levels at 1540$, 1523$, 1509$, 1493$ then 1477$ which has been reached under the pressure of not giving hints about new Fed's Q3 plan following its recent meeting on 22nd June.
God willing, we will be waiting today for the release of the stress tests results of 91 European banks and if we are to have weak results this can add more gains to the gold despite of the discrepancies about the efficiency of them since the falling of succeeding Irish banks of these tests on 2010 few months after them!

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The markets are waiting for having more information about the US housing market today with the release of US housing starts of June which are expected to be 0.58M in June from 0.56 in May and also US building permits which are expected to be 0.61M in June from .612 in May while the equities markets seem to be rebounding this morning after strong selling in the recent days because of the markets growing worries about the US debt following warning of downgrading the US credit rating by S&P and Moody's last week without exceeding the $14.29 trillions ceiling of US debt which has been already reached on 16th of last May as what has been announced by the Timothy Geithner.
These warning could contain the market sentiment with no reached deal yet between Obama and the majority of US Congress republic party senators who are asking for cutting the governmental spending by at least 2 trillions before accepting this request which can be the market worrying issue in the coming future with the worries about the debt rising up globally containing the markets sentiment weighing down on the business sentiment, while the US economy is easing currently with no expected new easing support from the Fed soon as Bernenke has tried to hint in the second day of his semiannual testimony in front of the financial services committee of the house that the Fed isn't ready for injecting new funds in the form of QE3 and also the economy has not reached these bad conditions which can lead the Fed to take such an action which its possibility has grown to the markets after his saying that everything should be on the table in the first day of this testimony.
From another side, the Fed can find it difficult too in buying more bonds for stimulating the growth at these bad debt conditions which argue decreasing the US debt soon and taking austerities measures for maintaining its financial position and this has been seen in the Fed's recent statement after its meeting on 22nd of last month that there should be a plan over the long term for decreasing this debt lowering its forecast of US GDP to be from 2.7% to 2.9% y/y in 2011 and to be from 3.3% to 3.7% in 2012.
That's beside the prices upside risks can be another obstacle in the face of any new easing action by the Fed with the US CPI rising in a continuous way in the recent moths from worrying about the deflation in last November supporting the Fed to take it's Q2 plan with CPI rising by just 1.1% yearly but this rising has started to speed up by 1.5% in December, 1.6% in January, 2.1% February, 2.7% in March, 3.2% in April and 3.6% in May and in June as we have seen by the end of last week with no easing back until now despite the easing of the growth which can lead to stagflation risks capping the Fed from taking new decision as what has been done in UK since capping BOE from taking new decision since 5th November 2009 when it raised its buying assets plan to 200b Stg keeping the interest rate unchanged since 5th Feb 2009.
While the gold is still shining rising above 1600$ per ounce supported by the worries about the US treasuries specially and the global bonds broadly with the debt crisis in EU too which are making the gold much more attractive to the investors who are looking for a safer haven stance and also as a hedge against inflation, the gold could find strong buying since the release of the Chinese CPI of June which rose strongly to 6.4% y/y from 5.5% while the market was waiting for 6.2%.
By God's will, the gold next supporting levels are now at 1575. 1540$, 1523$, 1509$, 1493$ then 1477$ which has been reached under the pressure of not giving hints about new Fed's Q3 plan following its recent meeting on 22nd June.
God willing, the markets will be waiting also today for BOC interest rate decision and it is widely expected to decide to keep the interest rate unchanged again at 1% as it has since September of last year as the US growth slowdown can effect negatively as well on the Canadian economy which depend of the US demand of commodities from it despite the recent signs from Canada showing good economic performance with inflationary pressure as we have seen recently the Canadian capacity utilization of the first quarter of this year surging to 79% from 76.8% in the last quarter of 2010 and also Ivey PMI of June which was expected to be 62.5 but it came at 68.2 from significant rising in may to 69.1 from 57.7 in April and also the Canadian non-farm payroll of June which came at 28.4k from 22.3k in May while the market were waiting for easing back to 11.3k that's beside rising of the prices as we have seen May Canadian CPI rising to 3.7% y/y while the markets were waiting for 3.3% as the same at April and we are waiting for this figure by this weekend to be 3.5% in June.
However the Canadian dollar is still finding support from being a good safe haven option during these worries about debt and the tensions in Libya which are supporting the oil prices too and God willing, further falling of the US dollar versus the Canadian dollar can be met now by supporting levels at 0.9512 then 0.9444 which the pair has ascended from it following the turmoil which hit the commodities markets after the labor holidays in the beginning of May helping the pair to reach 0.991 before getting back down forming a lower high at 0.9773 which is forming the pair nearest important resistance currently.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The greenback has started the week under pressure on no reached deal between the current democratic ruling party and the republicans for hiking the taxes until now can open the door for succeeding voting for raising the current debt working $14.29B limit which has been reached in the middle of last May while the markets are waiting anxiously for the way the US Government to pay its financial obligations in the second of next month and it looks that till we reach this time the markets sentiment will be possessed by the development of this ascending problem in US eyeing on next Friday release of US Q2 GDP which is expected to get down to 1.6% y/y from 1.9% in the first quarter of this year.
The Swiss Frank got use of this negative business spending sentiment and continued its pressure on the US dollar despite the recent weaker than expected release of Swiss trade balance of June which came at 1745M Frank while the market were waiting for 2.7B from 3.03B in May and also the big falling of July ZEW expectations index to the worst since Jan 2009 to -58.9 from -24.3 in June which refer to weaker confidence in the Swiss economic growth.
USDCHF has fallen below its recent supporting level at 0.8076 reaching 0.8019 under technical pressure too from being below its trend line resistance which is extended from 0.9338 to 0.8945 and over a longer range from being below the trend line resistance extension from 1.1729 to 0.9773 and God willing, the next expected supporting level can be at the psychological level at 0.8 while the its next resistance can be at 0.8276 , 0.8551 then 0.8945 again.
The demand for gold has increased too getting use of this dovish sentiment which is weighing down on the US Treasuries appeal as a safe haven too to make a new high reaching $1623 per ounce while its next supporting levels are expected to be at 1575. 1540$, 1523$, 1509$, 1493$ then 1477$ which has been reached under the pressure of not giving hints about new Fed's Q3 plan following its recent meeting on 22nd June.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The risk aversion sentiment has accelerated containing the markets following the falling of June personal income to 0.1% monthly revising down the figure of May to 0.2% from 0.3% while it was expected to be 0.3% and also monthly falling of US personal consumption expenditure by 0.2% while it was expected to rise by 0.2% in June with down revision of the figure of May from 0.2% to 0.1% in July.
These new dovish data about the US economy has supported the demand for the gold to reach a new all times high at 1641 per ounce recovering the falling to $1606 because of the reached deal between the republican party and the democratic party of cutting the US governmental spending by $2.1 trillions over the next 10 years for having an agreement for raising the US debt ceiling avoiding defaulting but the rising worries about the US growth outlook have come back supporting the gold following the falling of July US ISM manufacturing index to 50.9 while it was expected to be down to just 55.1 after rising in June to 55.3.
The worries about the US economy have started to emerge again last Friday with the down revision of US annualized GDP of Q1 to 0.4% from 1.8% in the previous reading and weaker than expected growing in the second quarter by 1.6% while it was foreseen to be 1.9%. That's besides the declining of July US Chicago PMI to 58.8 from 61.1 in June while it was forecasted to get down to 60.2 and also the falling of US UN. Michigan consuming sentiment survey of July to 63.7 from 71.5 in June highlighting the possibility of having new quantitive easing steps from the Fed which has referred in its recent beige book release last week about 12 US districts to the period ending on 15th of July to the weakness of US housing market and also the US labor markets showing that 8 of these 12 have shown signs of growth slowing down.
The Japanese yen also as a low yielding funding currency could get use of this dovish sentiment getting USDJPY down below 77.15 and further easing down from here can be met by supporting level at 76.88 and the falling of it can be followed by 76.41 which has been reached on the subsequences of March earthquake by the Japanese intervention which can threat the Japanese yen ascending for helping to the struggling Japanese exports at these current hurting levels of the Japanese yen exchange rates.
USDCHF has fallen too to 0.7705 because of the investors who are looking for a safer haven stance out of the US treasuries notes amid worries about the debt in US and in EU weighing down on the markets sentiment while this pair is still under continued technical pressure by being below its trend line resistance which is extended from 0.9338 to 0.8945 and over a longer range from being below the trend line resistance extension from 1.1729 to 0.9773 and God willing, its next resisting levels can be at 0.8076, 0.8276 then 0.8551
By God's will, it is important to wait next Friday for the release of US labor report of July which is expected to show rising of US non-farm payroll by 90k jobs with the unemployment standing at 9.2% and weaker figures than these expectations can increase the market worries about the US growth outlook and raising the possibilities of having further funds to be injected supporting the US economy from the Fed which always shows its special care of the labor market.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The Markets are waiting now for the ECB's interest rate decision which is widely expected to be for keeping the interest rate unchanged at 1.5% following July hiking by 0.25%, after easing of July EU CPI preliminary reading to 2.5% from 2.7% in June and the market will be focusing on the ECB's president language in the press conference following the decision to know whether or not it will maintain its view that the prices risks are still to the upside or not while it's widely expected to see turning back to the mantra that the ECB is very closely watching the prices which always hints to the markets that there is no close rate hike decision from saying that strong vigilance is warranted which always refers to a coming hiking decision.
The single currency is trading now at 1.423 versus the greenback after the release of June Germane Factor orders which have shown rising monthly by 1.8% as a the same as May while it was expected to decline by 0.1% comparing with June US factory orders which have shown yesterday declining by 0.8% monthly while the markets were waiting for decreasing by 0.4% after rising by 0.6% in May.
God willing the single currency next supporting level versus the greenback is expected to be again at 1.414 level which have supported it previously after falling from 1.4452 to rise again forming a another lower high at 1.437 which is the pair next resistance currently.
The markets will be waiting also today by God's will, for the release of US initial jobless claim which is expected to show rising to 408k from 398k a weak earlier after the release of July US ADP Employment change which came at 114k while the market was waiting for adding just 102k from 157k in June which supported the US stocks markets yesterday with optimism to have better than expected data from the US Labor report of July which is scheduled to be released tomorrow and it is expected to contain rising of July US non-farm payroll to 90k from 18k in June keeping the unemployment rate unchanged at 9.2%.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[أبو ركـــــون]

وش السالفه ؟؟؟؟
عطنا مختصر الهرجه بالعربي

[walid]

The Canadian dollar is still under pressure following the strong falling of the Canadian Ivey PMI of July to 45.1 in the contracting territory below 50 from 68.2 in June which came after July Canadian non-farm payrolls figures which have shown adding just 7.1k jobs while the markets were waiting for 20k from 28.4k in June by the end of last week helping the US Dollar to get over 0.991 resisting level versus the Canadian dollar on the current risk aversion sentiment which has increased by S&P action of lowering the US long term debt rating to AA+ from AAA after the close of the US markets last week.
In the same time, the worries about the US growth outlook are still weighing negatively on the markets by the next Fed's meeting decision which even if it is to come with new QE3 or hint of doing it buying more treasuries notes, it can face difficulties in stimulating the economy as the current required austerity measures for tightening the governmental deficit by cutting its spending which can tackle the governmental supporting of the US economy which has started to show weak signs of growth as we have seen recently the down revision of US annualized GDP of Q1 to 0.4% from 1.8% in the previous reading and weaker than expected growing in the second quarter by 1.6% while it was foreseen to be 1.9% and also June US PCE which came down monthly by 0.2% while the markets were waiting for rising by rising by 0.2% from 0.1% in May showing worries about the US demand ability to support the economy at the current stance after ending of the US QE2 last June with the interest rate is actually near zero on the subsequences of the credit crisis which is strong reason of this debt crisis which is looking harder to be solved after the governmental carrying of the loss weight of the US housing markets exposing the US creditability of downside risks of revision with the current easing of growth pace and the market strong focusing of the debt in US and EU too.
From another side, The Canadian dollar is under pressure by the growing expectations of lower demand for oil from US as the Canadian economy depends on its exports of the raw materials and specially the oil to the US markets that's beside the collapse of June Canadian CPI to 3.1% yearly in June while the markets were waiting for easing to just 3.5% from 3.7% in May which lowered the market expectations of having a new interest rate hiking decision by BOC which gives much care to the US growth pace.
Although the Canadian dollar can find support from being a good safe haven option during the worries about debt in EU and US too beside the tensions in Libya which are supporting the oil prices too and God willing, further rising of US dollar versus the Canadian dollar can be met now by resistance at the parity psychological level and the breaking of it can be followed by 1.006 then 1.0379 while getting down from here can meet supporting levels at 0.9685, 0.96, 0.9567, 0.949 then 0.9405 again where it has formed its recent main bottom to these current rates.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The gold could continued making new highs reaching today $1779 per ounce on increasing market expectation of having a new stimulation action by the Fed which came with no new action or hinting of a new action in a form of QE3 which forced the gold to retreat from $1760 per ounce to $1740 following the Fed's statement which has come with just Fed's expectations of having the interest rate between 0% and 0.25% till the middle of 2013 instead of the language of keeping the interest rate at this low levels for extended period of time and also it has come with lower appreciation of the inflation upside risks in the coming period maintaining Fed's long term expectation of inflation unchanged and this is concluded by the growth downside risks impact on the prices.
So, the gold could creep up again of decreasing of the risk appetite again trading currently above 1760 again and also the US indexes came down again after it could rebound in cheeriness of having new stimulating action and S&P 500 came down to 1115 following the statement from 1137 before it after it could rebound earlier from 1080 to 1152 and further easing from here can be met by supporting level at 1080 , 1036 then 1003 again while in the case of rebounding continuation from here it can meet by God's will, resistance at 1152, 1192, 1222, 1267 then 1289 by 1300 psychological level again.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The greenback bounced up directly after the release of the Fed's assessment which did not include QE3 plan or hinting to it but it came back under pressure on the Fed's decision of keeping the interest rate unchanged between 0% to .25% until the mid 2013 which was not discounted in the markets and weighed down on the US treasuries yields increasing the demand again for the US stocks as this decision can put pressure on the greenback value supporting the assets prices for a longer period of time than what has been discounting by the markets from the language of keeping the interest rate at this low level for extended period of time on the economic conditions which was required again by Fisher, Kocherlakota and Plosser.
The Fed maintained its inflation expectations over the long term expecting the prices to get down in the near future which is also priced in the market by the economic easing pressure negative impact on the inflation upside risks.
The US equities could continue rising after dipping down following the Fed's assessment release as the investors have seen in this decision an easing action has not been expected putting the greenback under pressure by this action which supported the risk appetite as it looked to the markets, what is in the Fed's hand currently with the interest rate has been already near this level on the back of the financial crisis and with new expected ties to be proposed on the Governmental spending which can cap any QE3 plans from stimulating the economy by buying more treasuries providing liquidity to the US bonds market, while the markets are focusing on the US debt which caused downgrading of the US long term debt by S&P to AA+ from AAA causing a strong wave of selling pressure in the equities markets and negative sentiment about the US creditability which can make it difficult to stimulate the economy financially by the government which is asked to do austerities measures for reducing its debt and so that what could be done by the monetary policy decision makers who surprised the market by the first time of determining a certain interest rate for a certain period of time by the Fed.
After S&P 500 index has fallen to 1100 following the statement from 1137, it could continue creeping up without a word about QE3 breaking above 1152 which stopped it during the day to close it at 1172 and God willing, in the case of gaining more momentum, it can meet resistance at 1192, 1222, 1267 then 1289 by 1300 psychological level again, while the way down can meet supporting levels now at 1100, 1080, 1036 then 1003.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[الدكتور سعـد]

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[الدكتور سعـد]

الله يعطيك العافية

[شموخ سعودي]

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[walid]

The Swiss frank has started the week under pressure, as the equities markets gains last Thursday and last Friday have continued in the beginning of this week too supported by the stronger than expected release of Q2 GDP preliminary reading of Japan which has shown shrinking by 1.3% y/y while the markets were waiting for the double of this rate by 2.6% and this optimism has continued into the US session helping the US stocks indexes eliminating all its loses after 5th of August following the US long term debt downgrading by S&P to AA+ from AAA.
In the same time, the investors have managed to take the SNB's worries about the Swiss Frank appreciation seriously with the SNB threatening the markets by taking further easing steps to stave off this appreciation after cutting the interest rate by 0.25% on 3rd of August to be zero despite the rising of Swiss SVEM PMI to 53.5 of July from 53.4 in June while the markets were waiting for easing to 53 while its counterparts indicators in US and EU are facing down pressure.
But from another side, it looks that the appreciation of the Swiss Frank could has its toll on the inflation which eased to 0.5% y/y in July from 0.6% in June falling monthly by 0.8% while the markets were waiting for easing by just 0.5% from decreasing by 0.2% in June which can really open the door for the SNB to take such easing actions with no threat from inflation upside risks currently injecting more liquidities into the markets.
USDCHF has risen from 0.7063 which has been the new recorded historical low last Tuesday to close last week at 0.7772 opening this week on a gap starting from 0.7829 breaking above 0.7950 reaching 0.7995 before easing again to be traded between 0.78 and 0.785 waiting for new clues from the SNB and in the case of rising of the worries about the investors risk positions, the pair cane meet supporting levels now at 0.78 and 0.7546 then 0.7177 before 0.7063 again.
Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The falling of EU Manufacturing PMI of August below 50 in the contracting territory to 49 while the markets were waiting for 49.5 from 50.4 in July raised the markets worries about the growth outlook in the Euro zone showing its needs for stimulation while it's required currently from most of the Euro zone countries to implement governmental austerities plans cutting its spending and raising its taxes for improving their financial situation amid continued investors' concerns about the debt crisis in the Euro zone.
These weak manufacturing data have come in line with the falling of Aug Germane IFO last week to 108.7 while the markets were waiting for from decreasing to 111.3 from 112.9 in June following the big drop of Aug EU ZEW to -40 while the consensus was referring to improving to -7.6 from -7 in July and also this week earlier release of EU consuming confidence index falling to -17 in August while it has been forecasted to -12 from -11.6 in July showing increased downside risks facing the European economic growth.
The Single currency has fallen versus the greenback below 1.4327 supporting after inability to get over 1.4383 again and it is now finding support at 1.4262 and in the case of breaking it, this cane open the way by God's will for further falling to another supporting levels at 1.4211, 1.4149, 1.4102 then 1.4054 again before the psychological level at 1.40 while moving up can meet resistances at again at 1.4383, 1.4464, 1.4548 which was the high of this week and the breaking of it can be followed by facing 1.4576 whereas the pair has formed its lower high below 1.4695 which came below 1.4939 which was the formed top in December 2009.
While the markets are waiting now to know more about the manufacturing sector in US waiting for the release of Aug Manufacturing ISM index which is expected to get down below 50 too at 48.5 from 50.9 in July before the focusing turning back again to the US labor markets ahead of the waited release of US labor report of August tomorrow by God's will, which is expected to show new 90k added jobs to the non-farm payrolls from 117k in July with standing of the unemployment rate at 9.1% as it was in July.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The Single currency came under strong pressure on increasing worries about the Euro area growth outlook after the ECB has downgraded its forecasts of the growth in 2011 and 2012 without hinting about new steps to stimulate the economy. While the worries about the debt crisis worries are still persisting weighing negatively on the current market sentiment.
The single currency has fallen below 1.395 supporting level yesterday following Trichet's comments about the downside risks facing the European economy currently which have elevated since the ECB meeting of August and today with these worries persisting before the G7 meeting this weekend, the single currency downward momentum has increased and with the falling of I.3838 supporting level versus the greenback, the selling pressure has accelerated causing falling of another strong supporting level at 1.3744 versus the greenback which is underpinned by the current risk aversion which is weighing down on the equities markets in EU and US driving up the bonds prices driving the US 10 years treasury bonds yields down to 1.96 below its previous historical level at 1.97 which has been recorded in the beginning of this week after the US markets have opened last Tuesday negatively impacted by the European stocks markets loses because of the rising worries about the economic growth outlook in the euro zone too amid requests for implementing austerities measures
by cutting the governmental spending and hiking the taxes in the European debt ailing economies which can be another hard obstacle in the face of the growth in this area amid growing concerns about the global economic outlook driving the business confidence down with the current great deal of uncertainty about the EU debt crisis.
From another side, The Swiss frank has come under pressure as the SNB's action to put a floor against EURCHF depreciation below 1.2 has helped USDCHF to go up above 0.88 capping the Swiss Franc from getting more benefits as a safe haven from this current dovish sentiment and losing of confidence for taking risks by the investors.
While the greenback is still finding strength from another side by no clear reference about QE3 by the Fed despite the recent dovish release of Beige Book which has shown clear weakness of the US economic performance but there was no hinting again from Bernanke's speech yesterday putting more pressure on the investors' risk appetite.
God willing, further EURUSD declining can be met with another supporting level at 1.3523 and in the case of breaking it, there can be a new supporting level to be faced at 1.3424 and the breaking of it can open the door for further falling to 1.2873 which has been recorded on the 10th of last January while the way of ascending can face difficulties at 1.3838 which has become a resistance then 1.3933 whereas the pair has formed its bottom after failing to get over 1.40 earlier today.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

While the markets were waiting for the European Economic and Financial Affairs Council meeting results, The Single currency has managed to ease back again versus the greenback under the pressure of having €2.5B EU Trade Balance deficit in July while the markets were waiting for €1.7B surplus from €1.5B deficit in June after it had failed to get over its previous resistance at 1.3935 falling below 1.377 whereas it has started its rising following the news of offering 3 months loans by the ECB for the European banks in an coordinated action with the Fed, SNB, BOE and BOJ for underpinning the US dollar liquidity into the European banking system for longer time as this has been allowed for just one week by the ECB.
God willing, further EURUSD declining can meet over the short term supporting levels at 1.3702, 1.3635, 1.3554 then 1.3494 again whereas it has started to correct its loses reaching the current levels and the breaking of it can open the door for further falling to 1.2873 which has been recorded low of this year on the 10th of last January while the way of ascending can face resistance again at 1.3935 then the psychological level at 1.4 and the breaking of it can lead to a higher resistance at 1.4278 which has been reached by the SNB's action to limit the EURCHF drawing down over 1.2 last week but it could not hold its gains falling back again on persisting worries about the European economy after the ECB had downgraded its forecasts of the EU growth in 2011 and 2012 without hinting about new steps to stimulate the economy, while the worries about Greece were ascending by suspending the talking between the lending troika and Greece from a side and from another side by Greece Fin Min announcement about the Greek GDP shrinking this year by more than 5% while it was expected to be by just 3.8% on the back of the negative impact of the taken austerities measures by the Greek government.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

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[walid]

The single currency could rebound versus the greenback following news about recapitalizing 16 mid-sized banks in the debt ailing European countries of which could pass hardly the recent EU banking stress tests in an action targeting the EU struggling backing system after last week ECB'S decision of offering 3 months loans for the European banks in an coordinated action with the Fed, SNB, BOE and BOJ for underpinning the US dollar liquidity into the European banking system for longer time as this has been allowed for just one week by the ECB which can be read as an action of restoring confidence and giving durability of the funds liquidity in this system but in the same time, it can be read easily as a precaution action for saving these banks from what can be worst with having default in Greece as these loans can not be read as a growth stimulating action in this time while cutting interest rate can be the most required suitable action and it can be unavoidable with persisting of the current struggling economic conditions which drove down EU Manufacturing PMI index and services PMI index well below 50 as what we have seen yesterday in the flash reading release of September EU Manufacturing PMI index which has gone lower in the contracting territory to 48.4 while it was expected to be 48.6 from 49 in August and also EU Services PMI flash reading index of September which came down to 49 while it was expected to be above 50 at 51.11 from 51.5 in August.
From another side the single currency could gain with growing ambitious hopes of having new decisions can restore the confidence in the markets from the next G20 meeting during the weekend with the current hopes of having new agreement between Greece and the creditors troika next week after stopping last Tuesday with no ability to come out with a new deal can save Greece from default next month by giving it the next waited 8 billions euros part of its bailing out plan which has been prepared by EU, IMF and ECB.
These new hopes have come to light some of the weights on the single currency which has started this week under pressure following the European Economic and Financial Affairs Council meeting which has come with no results to open this week at 1.3689 after closing last week at 1.3795 and after it could fill this gap by the announcement of Fed's meeting results, it came back under pressure again as the triggered dovish sentiment by the Fed's avoiding again injecting new funding in a form of a new QE3 or hinting to it satisfied with turning $400 billions of its holding of less than 3 years treasuries notes to longer term treasuries driving up the average maturity of its 1.6 trillions of treasuries to 100 months driving the 10 years treasuries notes yields down to new historical low yesterday at 1.72%
while the equities markets participants have not seen the required simulating measures in the Fed's plan which looked as a Fed's restructure plan targeting the bonds market more than the stocks which have come under pressure with a real dovish US assessment by the Fed showing growing downside risks facing the US economy from the financial markets with the current weak labor US market and the pressure on the housing market which lead it to reinvest its holding of $885 Billion in the mortgages back securities again with no cut.
That's beside the hits which have dragged the equities markets down by the worries EU countries credit rating which have increased by S&P downgrading of Italy's short term and long term debt from A+/A-1+ to A/A-1 and also the doubts about the US banking system creditability which have grown by Moody's downgrading of BoA, Citi Group and Wells Fegro last Wednesday which has been backed to the current lower ability of the US Government to support them in the case of having harder financial situation amid the debt crisis in the Euro area and the current slower US growth pace expectations which dampened the commodities and energy prices and the stocks which are depending of them
That's beside the political situation in US which forms another risk as what has been seen of hardness in reaching a political agreement for hiking the US debt ceiling for avoiding bankruptcy last month which shows that having an agreement for financing such big banks or bailing out one of them can face monetary and financial difficulties.
God willing, after EURUSD had broken this week its recent supporting levels at 1.3702, 1.3635, 1.3554, 1.3494 and 1.3424, it can face again supporting level at 1.3384 whereas it could rebound this week and in the case of breaking it, it can face another supporting level at 1.3243 and breaking it can lead to 1.3088 before the psychological level at 1.3 and 1.2873 which has been recorded low of this year on the 10th of last January while the way of ascending can face resisting levels at 1.36, 1.3693, 1.3795 which could not be broken this week too in a dovish price action sign and in the case of breaking it, the pair can meet another resistance at 1.3843 before 1.3935 which has been reached following the ECB's decision to offer US dollars loans for 3 months to the European banks.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The rising of Sep EU CPI preliminary reading to 3% while the market was waiting for 2.5% like August can tackle the ECB form taking a direction to lower the interest rate for stimulating growth in EU and giving easier conditions for borrowing euros to the ailing countries of debt.
The ECB always gives attention to this figure and in its recent 2 meeting, it has smoothed its language concerning the inflation upside risks which looked to it well-anchored over the medium term despite being above its 2% yearly target with no signals to the markets of taking a close hiking action since it has hiked the interest rate by 0.25% on 13th of last July which opened the way to the market speculations of having an interest rate cut this year for stimulating growth in EU specially after the release of the flash reading of September EU Manufacturing PMI index which has gone lower in the contracting territory to 48.4 while it was expected to be 48.6 from 49 in August and also EU Services PMI flash reading index of September which came down to 49 while it was expected to be above 50 at 51.11 from 51.5 in August amid worries about the EU banking system creditability.
But after this jump of inflation in EU which has not been seen since October 2008, the market wants to know whether or not the ECB will take the same direction of inflation tolerance of the Fed and BOE despite reaching yearly in August 3.8% in US and 4.5% in UK.
The Markets are waiting cautiously now for what can be resulted from Greece and the creditors' troika negotiations during the weekend after the Greek government could pass new properties taxes this week as a new deal can open the way for saving Greece again from default next month by giving it the next awaited 8 billions euros part of its bailing out plan.
The markets are waiting now from US for the release of July US personal consumption expenditures index to be up monthly by 0.2% from 0.4% in June and July core PCE price index to be up monthly by 0.2% as the same as June and also the release of August personal income to be up monthly by 0.1% from 0.3% in July and also US personal spending of August to be 0.2% from the rising by 0.8% in July which spurred an optimism wave after falling in June to -0.1%.
The markets will be waiting also today for the release of Sep Chicago PMI which is expected to get down to 56 from 56.5 in August and also for the release of Michigan university consuming sentiment survey which is expected to be 57.9 in September from 57.7 in the preliminary reading and 55.7 in August.
God willing, after EURUSD had broken its recent supporting level at 1.3519, it can face new supporting levels in its way down at 1.348, 1.3414 then 1.3362 whereas it could rebound in the beginning of this week and in the case of breaking it, it can face another supporting level at 1.3243 and breaking it can lead to 1.3088 before the psychological level at 1.3 and 1.2873 which has been recorded low of this year on the 10th of last January while its way for getting up can be met by resisting levels at 1.3693, 1.3795 which could not be broken this week too in a dovish price action sign and in the case of breaking it, the pair can meet another resistance at 1.3843 before 1.3935 which has been reached following the ECB's decision to offer US dollars loans for 3 months to the European banks.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

Improving the risk appetite in the recent few days could help the Canadian dollar to add more gains versus the greenback with rising back of the oil prices after it had been under pressure on increasing worries about the US growth outlook which can effect negatively on the Canadian exports of commodities and oil to US.
From another side, The Canadian dollar has been well-supported too by the strong rising of IVEY PMI to 63.4 in September which followed another strong rising in August to 57.6 after a sudden falling In July to 45.1
The Canadian dollar has been under pressure versus the greenback with the persisting of the European debt crisis which has dampen the market sentiment increasing the demand for the greenback as a safe haven with continued worries about the European banks exposure to the Greek debt leading USDCAD to reach 1.0655 but with rising hopes for recapitalizing the European banking sector by EU and also growing optimism about the US labor market, it has eased back without breaking its previous resistance at 1.0669 but it has found difficulty to get below 1.0364 again which has become supporting level after it has been a resistance before breaking it 29th of September but with the release of September Canadian labor report, it could get below it as the report has shown rising of the Canadian net change employment by 60.9 jobs while the markets were waiting for rising by just 19.5 after falling by 5.5k in August and also decreasing of the Canadian unemployment rate to 7.1% in September while the markets were waiting for 7.3% as the same as August.
God willing, USDCAD can face now in the case of further declining a new supporting level at 1.0142 then the parity psychological level and the breaking of it too can open the way for further falling to 0.9788 again while rising back again can be met with resistance at 1.0669 again then 1.0855 and the breaking of it can lead to 1.1 psychological level and the breaking of it too can lead to another higher resistance at 1.1123
God willing, the market is waiting now for the release of US labor report of September which is expected to show rising of the US non-farm payrolls by 73K after no change in August and the report is expected to show also that the Unemployment rate is still steady at 9.1% as it was in August and also the average hourly earnings rinsing by 1.9% y/y as august with steadiness of the average weekly hours at 34.2
And this report comes after triggered optimism in the markets by the release of Sep US ADP employment index which has come with new 91k while the market was waiting for just 70k from 89k in August and also after yesterday release of US Initial jobless claim which came at 401k while it was forecasted to rise to 411k from 395k a week earlier.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The Single currency could get over its previous resistance at 1.3832 versus the greenback after Berlusconi could have the confidence in the Italian parliament and it is now heading to its previous resistance at 1.3935 which has been reached following the ECB's decision to offer US dollars loans for 3 months to the European banks earlier last month and if it could get over it, it is expected to face resistance at 1.4 psychological level before another resistance at 1.4147 by 1.4278 which has been reached by the SNB's action to limit the EURCHF drawing down over 1.2
While its way for getting back down versus the greenback can be met by God's will with supporting level at 1.3684 whereas it could rebound yesterday and breaking it can be followed by other supporting levels at 1.3562 , 1.3359, 1.3232, 1.3144 whereas the pair has started to rebound on the 4th of this month and get below it can face another supporting level at 1.3088 before the psychological level at 1.3 and breaking it can open the way for 1.2873 which has been the recorded low of this year on the 10th of last January.
The single currency could find this week strength, after Merkel and Sarkozy meeting last Sunday which has shown strong appreciation of the need for recapitalizing the European banking sector quickly for protecting it from deterioration in the case of further exacerbation of the debt crisis and this step can make the European banking sector the nearer to Basel 3 agreement which is expected to be implemented in 2019, as the European banks are widely expected to be asked for rising the capital by about 9% in few months and this adding can be by its earnings, the governmental sector or the private sector before asking for EFSF
From another side, the single currency could find support by the Greece creditors' troika statement which has shown a greater possibility of passing the waited 8 billions slice to Greece of its 110 bailing out plan by the EU Fin Ministers.
Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The Japanese yen has found strength in the Asian session to break below 75.70 making a new low at 75.65 because of the falling of Sep unemployment rate to 4.1% while the market was waiting for 4.5% from 5.3% in August and also Sep industrial productions release which has shown declining by 0.4% while the market was waiting for stronger falling by 2.3% after rising in August by 0.4%. keeping greenback trading versus the Japanese yen below 76 despite the intervention threats from BOJ which kept the interest rate unchanged at 0.1% this week predicting this FY GDP to be by 0.3% from 0.4% in last July and next year to be 2.2% from 2.9% previously in last July and concerning 2013, it has predicted its GDP to be 1.5% warning of the risks facing the US economy and the global economy and its impact on the Japanese economy amid the EU debt crisis and Japanese yen strength which did not cap Japanese merchandise total trade balance from making ¥300.4b surplus while the market was waiting for just 198b from 775.3b deficit in August
BOJ has shown also uncertainty about the commodities prices outlook but it expected core CPI to be at 0.0% this FY from 0.7% in July and for next year it has predicted it to be at 0.1% from its previous estimation in last July too at 0.7%.and this was obvious in today data which have shown again prices down side risks and persisting of deflation as Sep Japanese National CPI came at 0.0% y/y while the market was waiting for 0.1% from 0.2% in August and also the core CPI of September came at -0.4% as expected from -0.5% in August with no monthly change from 0.1% in August.
God willing, USDJPY can face now resisting levels at 76.47, 77.07, 77.47, 77.84, 79.05, 80.22, 81.46 then 82.22 while the way down can face by the Japanese intervention in the case of passing the new recorded level today in the Asian session at 75.65 despite the Japanese Fin min Azumi's warning which came last Tuesday that the current Japanese yen exchange rate does not reflect fundamentals as it reflects the traders' speculations.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The single currency has retreated back again after failure to break above 1.387 again versus the greenback which is getting support currently from the disagreement around the way of IMF financing of the EU debt amid the G20 meetings in France.
The single currency has been under pressure yesterday by the unexpected decision of the ECB to cut the interest by 0.25% and Draghi's warning of falling in a mild recession at the end of this year but the Greek PM calling off the referendum on the second bailing out plan could help the single currency to get over 1.38 again and it is now trading around 1.373 after the US Labor report release of October which has shown producing 80k jobs out of the farming sector while the market was waiting for 100k with up revision of September reading to 158k from 103k and also with easing of the US unemployment rate to 9% from 9.1% in September and these data came after Oct US ADP had come earlier this week adding 110k while the markets were waiting for 100k revising up September reading to 116k from 91k and even the US Initial jobless claim for the week ending on 29 Oct has come down to 397k from 406 a weak earlier while the market was waiting for 402kwe have seen showing really gradual improving of the US Labor market as the Fed's referred earlier this week again.
By God's will, The markets are waiting now anxiously for the results of confidence voting in the Greek Government and also the joint statement which will be send out after the end of G20 2 days meeting while the single currency way down versus the greenback can meet supporting level at 1.3655 which could hold yesterday after the ECB's interest rate cutting decision and in the case of falling it can meet anther supporting level at 1.3607 whereas it could rebound earlier this week and breaking it can lead to lower supporting levels at 1.3564, 1.3359, 1.3232 then 1.3144 whereas it has begun its recent rebound on 4th of last month reaching 1.4245 last week after the EU summit agreement in Brussels and in the case of ascending back, it can face now resistance again at 1.387 and breaking it can lead to test higher resisting levels at 1.3959 before the psychological level at 1.4 which breaking it can open the way for 1.4199 then 1.4245 again before 1.4279 which has been reached by the SNB's action to limit the EURCHF drawing down over 1.2

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The Single currency is still trying to hold its gains above 1.36 versus the greenback after it could find support by a well-covered Italian 10 years bonds issuance earlier yesterday at yield average lower than Wednesday new recorded highs since the beginning of adopting the Euro which reached 7.37% while the Italian senates are rushing to vote today on passing new austerities measures which can be followed by Berlusconi's resignation.
From the another side, The worries about the Greek political have eased back too as the position of the new united Greek government PM has gone to Lucas Papademos who was the previous ECB vice president. Papademos can really find acceptance from the European side but it is hard to have more than what Papandreou had from the Greek street to add more austerity measures.
The single currency could gain also yesterday as the ECB has begun this week its second plan of buying covered bond worth 40b euros and this announcement has come with remarks from Knot Kuasa who is the ECB's member heading the Dutch central bank saying that the ECB is doing all what it can and it is not expected to do more than what is has already done for solving the debt problem indicating that the intervention impact is usually temporary and solving the problem is up to the governments.
While the greenback was coming under pressure because of the improving of the investors' risk appetite as the US weekly initial jobless claim has eased in the week ending on 4th Nov to 390k and the market was waiting for 402k showing continued gradual improving of the US labor market after last week data has shown increasing of Oct US ADP to 110k while the markets were waiting for 100k revising up September reading to 116k from 91k and also October US Labor report which has shown decreasing of the US unemployment rate to 9% while the market was expected 9.1% as the same as September producing 80k jobs out of the US farming sector while the market was waiting for 100k with strong up revision of September reading to 158k from 103k.
But this does not object that the single currency is still subjected to further falls as the markets worries about the debt crisis negative impact on the EU countries creditability are still looming driving up the bonds yields of these countries beside the growth downside risks which are facing the Euro area forcing the ECB to adopt easing steps for underpinning liquidity and stimulating the struggling EU economy which can fall in a mild recession at the end of this year as the new ECB president Mario Draghi has warned last week after the ECB decision of cutting the interest rate by 0.25% to be 1.25% despite the inflation annual rate holding at 3% yearly initially in October as the same in September and these down side risks have been materialized obvious recently to the markets participants with the recent release of Oct EU PMI manufacturing index which has fallen to 47.1 from 48.5 in September and also Oct EU PMI services index which has fallen to 46.4 from 48.8 in September shown continuation putting pressure on the single currency.
God willing, EURUSD can face now resistance at 1.387 which hold more than one time in the face of its ascending and breaking it can lead to test higher resisting levels at 1.3959 before the psychological level at 1.4 which breaking it can open the way for 1.4199 then 1.4245 again before 1.4279 which has been reached by the SNB's action to limit the EURCHF drawing down over 1.2 while the way down can be met by supporting level at 1.3483 whereas the pair could rebound yesterday and breaking it can be followed by another supporting level at 1.3359, 1.3232 then 1.3144 whereas it has begun its recent rebound on 4th of last month reaching 1.4245 after the EU summit agreement in Brussels on 27th of last month.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The greenback is still under pressure after the central banks action to lower the cost of borrowing US dollars for underpinning the liquidity in the banking systems especially in the EU after the demand for the US Dollar has increased recently hiking the cost of borrowing it amid rising of the governmental bonds yields containing the markets sentiment.
From another side, the greenback came under pressure by the rising of the risk appetite which has been fueled by continued improving of US economic data as Nov ADP Employment rose strongly up to 203k while the market was waiting for just 130k from 110k in October have been revised up too to 116k suggesting better data to come tomorrow with the release of US labor report of November and concerning the housing sector we have seen also a very strong monthly rising of the pending home sales in October by 10.4% while the consensus was referring to another declining by 1.3% following the drop of September by 4.6% showing improving of the demand in the housing market too as the pending home sales is an expressive leading indicator of this sector and also the manufacturing sector in Chicago has shown better than expansion in November as Chicago Manufacturing PMI rose up to 62.6 while the market was forecasting small rising to 58.6 from 58.4 in October and even the US Beige Book release which always comes 2 weeks before the Fed's meeting has come better than October because of the improving of the consuming spending, manufacturing sector performance and the tourism activity and these data came to ensure the improving of the US economic performance recently following the very strong rising figure of Nov US consumers confidence figure to 56 while it was expected to improve to just 44 after a massive falling in October to 39.8 and these data were enough to keep the gains of the US stocks which started yesterday session in the positive territory following the PBOC'S decision of cutting the banking RRR by 0.5% for the first time in 3 years showing greater interest in the growth downside risks facing Chine after Nov HSBS PMI manufacturing index of China has come down to 48 from 51 in October while the inflation pressure has shown easing sings by falling below 6% in October to 5.6%.
While the single currency looked the greater winner of the Fed's action with another major 5 central banks as it lower the pressure on the EU banking system resorting confidence in it showing real coordinating efforts to help it getting over the crisis after this week EU US meeting Between the EU commissioner Jose Barroso and Obama who has said that US is standing ready to take its part ensuring that the greater risk facing the US economy is this crisis in EU.
This action also came in time the markets which did not see certainty in getting over the crisis as the failing of the EU Fin Ministers in Brussels to identify a target of the EFSF looking for further support from the IMF's side.
The Single currency could get over 1.344 which stopped it in the face of the single currency before this week to reach 1.3532 during the US session and by god's will, it can face now in the case of rising up further other resisting levels at 1.3557, 1.3613, 1.3808, 1.387 which pressed down the pair capping its rising many times last moth and breaking it can lead to test higher resisting levels at 1.3959 before the psychological level at 1.4 which breaking it can open the way for 1.4199 then 1.4245 again before 1.4279 which has been reached by the SNB's action to limit the EURCHF drawing down over 1.2 while the way down of this pair can be faced by supporting levels at 1.3271 .1.3211.1.3144 which contained the pair falling from recently and whereas it has begun its recent rebound on 4th of last month reaching 1.4245 after the EU summit agreement in Brussels on 27th of last month and breaking it can open the way to 1.3 psychological level and breaking it can open the way for 1.2873 which has been the recorded low of this year on the 10th of last January.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The Single currency is still under pressure versus the greenback after the ECB's interest rate decision of cutting the interest rate by 0.25% to be at its previous all times low at 1% again as it was before April meeting.
The ECB kept its role as funds provider again with no announcement about new buying bonds plans directly which have been aimed by the markets which have seen offering new 3 years loans or lowering the EU reserve banking rate of deposits at its central banks by 50% to be 1% of its assets instead of 2% from the beginning of next year or even cutting the interest rate meanwhile are not enough and can not replace buying bonds directly by the ECB to restore confidence in the EU bonds markets to fall the risk appetite strongly during the ECB's president press conference which focused on the ECB's offering of cheaper money with no reference to direct interventions injecting funds in the EU bonds markets adding that the ECB is forbidden from monetary financing on the current treaty to the governments referring to that the ECB should stick to the treaty spirit and the governments should do too.
Draghi has shown his surprising too by the understanding of his words of "other elements" to be done by the ECB in the face of the crisis, in the case of reaching stronger financial unity amongst the EU countries as a hint of buying more bonds on reaching this has been really done last week when he was addressing in front of the EU parliament while the speculation have increased toward these direction from the germane and French side giving the markets high level of cheeriness by the EU summit.
And now, it's the word of the political and financial authorities after the monetary authority has turned the word to it to reach a new accepted modification of the current agreements between the EU suffering from high levels of debt like Greece and the countries which are funding this debt like Germany.
And in the case of germane bowing to their demands, there can be a bigger financial role of the ECB and the IMF which has announced earlier this week that it's in need for more resources to do as long as Germany is still refusing the idea of united bonds issuance.
But in the case of germane refusal there can be imposed sanctions in a new financial treaty on the EU countries which allows its debt to get over 60% of its GDP or its budget deficit to be more than 3% of it.
But between this and that there can be a reached deal for lowering the bonds yields at least over the short term as a joint demand from the countries in debt and the offering countries which have been negatively impacted recently by the crisis and well- exposed to credit rate lowering as S&P credit rating agency has warned earlier by the EU summit this week.
It is also expected from the summit to identify a greater active role of the IMF intervention even it is to be a last defending line behind the FESF as it has been obvious in the EU Fin ministers' meetings last week which could not find recourses to grantee the 1 trillion which has been announced as a new size of it in the recent summit on 27th of October. So, it's important issue to be discussed too in the summit specially as the lack of details about its funding resource has dampen the market sentiment after that previous summit.
The Single currency has fallen during Draghi's press conference well below its previous supporting level at 1.3332 after failing to continue rising above 1.3458 on the ECB assurance that there is no monetary financing in the EU treaty and God willing, in the case of falling further, there can be consecutive supporting levels at 1.3258, 1.3211 whereas the pair has formed its bottom after falling from 1.4245 which has been reached after the EU summit agreement in Brussels on 27th of last October and breaking it can open the door again for 1.3144 which could contain on 4th of last October the pair falling from 1.4939 and breaking it can open the way for 1.3 psychological level which can be followed by 1.2873 whereas the pair has recorded this year low on the 10th of last January.
While its way up can be met by resisting level now at 1.3458 which capped the pair gains yesterday and this can be followed with another resistance at 1.3546 which has been reached after the Fed's coordinated action to lower the USD cost of borrowing with other five Central banks and the ECB was one of them and breaking 1.3546 can be followed directly by 1.3567 which stands before 1.3613 and breaking it can open the door again to 1.3808 then 1.387 which pressed down the pair capping its rising many times last moth putting technical pressure on the pair and breaking it can lead to test higher resisting levels at 1.3959 before the psychological level at 1.4

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The single currency could find the power to get over 1.30 versus the greenback because of the flash release of Dec EU manufacturing PMI index which has come at 46.9 while it has been expected to be 46.2 from 46.4 in November and also the flash reading of Dec EU Services PMI index which rose up to 48.3 from 47.5 in November while it was expected to decline further in the shrinking territory below 50 to 47.1 but the single currency has eased back below 1.30 as it is still finding difficulty to have a place above it after breaking it yesterday as the uncertainty is still remaining about the crisis outlook as the market participants have not found out what can make them sure about that the worst of the debt crisis is over while the signs of the recession are still emerging in the Euro area
The single currency has reached yesterday 1.2945 versus the greenback by a new recorded high yielding of the 5 years Italian bonds since the single currency inception for covering 3 billions euros despite the recent ECB's decision to cut the cost of borrowing by 0.25% to be again 1% as again as it was before April meeting as the worries about the EU debt crises are still containing the markets sentiment from a side and from another side, because of the current EU inflation rate which is still at 3 years high at 3% yearly lowering the attractiveness of these bonds which have not become a safe haven option to the investors anymore despite the rising recession signs in the euro zone.
The Single currency downward momentum has accelerated since last week ECB's interest rate cut by 0.25% with a dovish statement about the EU Economic growth focusing in the ECB's efforts for offering cheaper money with no reference to direct interventions injecting new funds in the EU bonds markets assuring that the ECB is forbidden from monetary financing on the current EU treaty to the governments referring to that the ECB should stick to the treaty spirit and the governments should do too.
While the greenback is finding strength on the recent improvement of the US economic performance which gives the Fed leeway to delay a new QE3 further that 's beside the demand for it with the current risk aversion sentiment which dampened the demand in the equities markets especially after the Fed's recent assessment which mentioned this improvement with no reference again to lower the possibility of a new QE3 soon giving support to greenback versus the gold too.
God willing, the single currency can face now supporting level versus the greenback at 1.2945 which could help it to rebound yesterday and in the case of breaking it, there can be another supporting level at by 1.2873 whereas the pair has recorded this year low on the 10th of last January and breaking it can open the way for 1.2586 which has been the formed bottom on 24th of August 2010 and this can be followed by 1.2151 which is the last low before 1.1876 whereas the pair has rebound forming its bottom on 7th of June 2010 to 1.4939 whereas the pair has managed to ease back again on 4th of May 2011 after a bubble in the commodities market.
While its way up can be met by resisting levels now at 1.3098, 1.3236, 1.3283, 1.3432 before 1.4385 again which capped the pair gains last week putting technical pressure too on this pair and breaking it can lead to another resistance at 1.3546 which has been reached after the Fed's coordinated action to lower the USD cost of borrowing with other five Central banks and the ECB was one of them and breaking 1.3546 can be followed directly by 1.3567 which stands before 1.3613 and breaking it can open the door again to 1.3808 then 1.387 which pressed down the pair capping its rising many times last month.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The pressure on the single currency continued today to get it down below 1.2858 whereas it could rebound last week versus the greenback which is supported by the current risk aversion sentiment which contained the markets worrying about the EU debt crisis outlook.
From another side, The greenback could found strength after the release of better than expected data showing declining of the US initial weekly jobless claim to 371k from 387k a week earlier and also rising of the added jobs to the US private sector to 325k in December while the markets were waiting for adding just 165k jobs adding 204k in November as these data could not add to the markets risk appetite which is still negatively impacted by the EU debt crisis as it has done for the USD as they reduce the pressure on the Fed to support the labor market by adding more liquidity by a QE3 soon.
So, the US equities markets are still down while EURUSD is trading right now below 1.28 and God willing, in the case of declining, the pair can meet supporting levels at 1.2586 which has been the formed bottom on 24th of August 2010 and this can be followed by 1.2151 which is the last low before 1.1876 whereas the pair has rebound forming its bottom on 7th of June 2010 to 1.4939 whereas the pair has managed to ease back again on 4th of May 2011 after a bubble in the commodities market while the way up can meet resistance at 1.30 psychological level then 1.3075 whereas the pair failed to continue rising this week with an Irish announcement of failing to meet the budget deficit target following Spain which has announced the same while the worries about the demand for the EU long term bonds are undermining the market sentiment with the yield of the Italian 10 years is still around 7% despite the ECB's recent easing measures for lowering the cost of borrowing which could succeed top spur demand for the EU debt ailing countries short term bonds driving their yields down significantly for getting use of these short term injected cheap money by the ECB but it looks that the demand for these countries long term bonds are still in need of greater deal of certainty and stability of the financial situations of these countries while the credit rating downgrading risks are still looming around the EU countries.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The pressure on the single currency continued in the beginning of this week versus the greenback as the fear of downgrading the credit rating of the EU countries has materialized by the end of last week by cutting the credit rating of 9 of the Euro area remembers by S&P giving all of the EU countries a negative outlook but Germany and Slovenia which has been cut by one notch like Slovakia, Malta, Austria and France which was having a triple A rating like Germany, Finland, Netherlander and Luxemburg who had been maintained with no change while Italy, Spain, Portugal and Cyrus have been cut by 2 notches as the credit rating downgrading risk was one of the elements which were weighing down on the single currency recently especially after S&P's warning on the 5th of last month by placing the credit ratings of 15 euro zone countries on negative credit watch.
The reactions of the EU Members were mixed. While Germany has decided to get use of this chance to praise the need of financial structure reforms placing the stricter budget rules soon which have been granted in the recent EU summit on the 9th of last month highlighting the need of activating the EU stability mechanism soon too.
but France has lowered the risk of this action which was expected while some other members like Austria has seen that its is not an understood or right action while the EU members are doing the best for solving the EU debt crisis which caused this downgrading by S&P which have seen these efforts are not enough as it has announced after the action.
The EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Ryan has mentioned that this is an action from an agency has made mistakes before and this decision has been made with no right evaluation of the current efforts to stem off the budget deficit of the EU members.
But The EU Commissioner Janker has reacted to this action in an active way to the markets suggesting that this action can encourage the EU countries to increase the amount of the EFSF from its current amount at 500B euros which is worrying the markets as it is not sufficient to bail out countries like Italy which is in need to refund 341b Euros this year paying 54b as interest.
In this same time, the greenback is still getting strength by the improvement of the US economic which has been highlighted again by the end of last week by another better than expected release of Jan UN. Michigan consuming sentiment preliminary reading which has shown rising to 74 while the markets were waiting for just 71.5 after rising to 69.9 from 64.1 in November increasing the speculations of having no QE3 soon supporting the greenback which is taking advantage currently from another side by the falling of the risk apatite again on the increasing worries about the financial market after these downgrades.
God willing, the single currency can face now a new supporting at 1.2586 which has been the formed bottom on 24th of August 2010 and this can be followed by 1.2151 which is the last low before 1.1876 whereas the pair has rebound forming its bottom on 7th of June 2010 to 1.4939 whereas the pair has managed to ease back again on 4th of May 2011.
While the pair can face a resistance now at 1.2877 which could cap its gains after rebounding from 1.266 on series of successful EU bonds auctions last week specially the Spanish ones driving their yields down which were supported the ECB's recent efforts for lowering the cost of borrowing and providing cheap money in the forms of 3 years loans for the financial markets which praised these actions positive effects specially over the short term as they give time for the financial market lowering the pressure on it and on the single currency in the same time which has become exposed to the risk of failure recently while the EU economy is in need for the low cost money which can spur the investments in the same time and God's will, breaking 1.2877 can be met with another resisting level 1.2954 before the psychological level at 1.30 which can open the way for more resisting levels to come at 1.3098, 1.3283 and 1.3432 before 1.4385 again which contained the pair recent gains forming another lower high to put technical pressure on it.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The British pound is still trying hardly to have a place above 1.54 versus the greenback despite the improving of the risk apatite on today news of the possibility of increasing the lending capacity of the IMF to be $1 trillion after Legarde's calling yesterday for boosting the ability to it in the face of the current strong challenges facing the global economy as the pressure on the British pound has continued again today with the rising of UK unemployment in the three months to November by 118k to reach 2.68m which is the highest amount since 1994 pushing up UK ILO unemployment rate of the previous 3 months to November to be 8.4% which is the highest since 1995.
These data highlight the need of more stimulating efforts from BOE after keeping its assets purchasing plan unchanged in the recent 3 meetings after adding 75b Stg in last October to be consumed within 4 months.
The industrial sector is also not in a better stance as the data have shown recently declining of Nov industrial productions by 3.1% y/y while the market was waiting for -2.2% after decreasing by 2.1% in October and also Nov UK manufacturing production which came down by 0.6% y/y which the market was waiting for easing by just 0.1% after falling in October by 1% to assure what has come in the BBC's report last week of failure of the manufacturing sector to grow in the fourth quarter of last year.
From another side, the NIESR has expected growth in the 3 months to December by just 0.1% from 0.3% of the 3 months to November last week and also the British commercial chamber has indicated that the UK economy is looking in need for more than BOE stimulating plans now as the government should encourage the company borrowing too for helping the economy to recover.
The inflation pressure is looking easing in UK in the same time as what has been expected before by BOE as UK CPI has come down again in December to 4.2% from 4.8% in November from 5% in October after rising to 5.2% in September to lower the worries about the inflation upside risks of taking further easing steps putting pressure the British pound from another side.
God willing, the cable is expected to face a resistance at 1.5523, in the case of maintaining a place over 1.4507 and the breaking it can lead to a higher resistance at 1.5667 before 1.5778 while its way down is expected to met by supporting level at 1.5231 whereas it could rebound by the end of last week after S&P credit downgrading of 9 EU countries and getting below it can open the door for facing another supporting level at 1.5123 before the psychological level at 1.50

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The single currency has found strength this week to get over 1.30 psychological level versus the greenback again as the markets have shrugged off the delay of reaching an agreement between Greece and its creditors from the private sector as they have done last week by ignoring downgrading the credit rating of 9 of the Euro area remembers and also the EFSF's bonds by S&P giving all of the EU countries a negative outlook driving the yield of the European bonds down further.
But The EU Fin Ministers meeting yesterday has come out yesterday with a new warning to Greece that it shouldn't expect more funds for bailing it even though the country's economy is worsening to push the single currency below 1.30 again.
The single currency has already opened the week below 1.29 versus the greenback on the worries about the results of the negotiations between Greece and IIF on the fear of the possibility of failing again to reach an agreement while its creditors' troika which consist of the EU, IMF and ECB has put this required agreement as a precondition before going on bailing out Greece while Greece is a head of meeting and new maturity of another 14.4b euros next 20th of March.
The market is also waiting now to have a stronger indication about the EU economic performance which is expected to get better later this year as the ECB president Draghi has referred recently fueling the single currency recent rebound with today release of EU PMI Manufacturing index preliminary reading which is expected to show an improvement to 47.5 in January from 46.9 in December and also the preliminary reading of Jan EU PMI Services index which is expected to be 49.1 from 48.8 in December.
God willing, in the case of getting over 1.3051 whereas the single currency has eased back again, it can meet another resistance at 1.3075 before 1.3196 and breaking it can open the way for meeting another resistance at 1.3546 while getting down again can face supporting levels now at 1.2874 which could contain the pair dovish opening this week and breaking it can be followed by meeting another resistance at 1.271 before 1.2631 whereas the pair could rebound to these current levels underpinned more successful EU bonds auctions thanks to the ECB efforts for lowering the cost of borrowing and the optimism which triggered week a week ago by the release of EU ZEW economic sentiment which got better in Jan strongly to -32.5 while the markets were waiting for -48.7 from -54.1 in December and also Germane ZEW economic sentiment which has improved too to -21.5 which the market was waiting for -49.1 from -53.8 in December showing strong elevating of the investors confidence.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The gold is still trying to add to its recent gains which pushed it up trading above $1700 psychological level after it could easily get over it following the Fed's decision to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent anticipating that the current economic conditions including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.
The decision was not widely expected by the Fed after the market has seen recently improving of the US economic performance especially in the labor market with the falling of the unemployment rate to 8.5% in December which is the lowest since Feb 2009.
The Fed's economic assessment has shown its current expectation of having longer time than the markets were pricing for reaching the economic stability which can warrant a rate hike increasing the probability of having more easing measures with the inflation slowing down and this was one of the reasons which was weighing down on the gold prices as a hedge against inflation but after this assessment, the market can wait now for easing movement by the Fed accompanied with the inflation upside risks easing in US.
As we have seen recently constant falling of US CPI to reach 3% yearly in December from 3.4% in November from 3.5% in October after reaching 3.9% in last September which is its highest level since September 2008 suggesting that there can be deflation pressure again to face the US economy which lead the Fed before to take the QE2 decision in the beginning of November 2010 for fighting it and stimulating the economy putting pressure on the cost of borrowing.
God willing, the gold can face now resistance again $1762 and breaking it can open the way for another resistance at $1802 which can be followed by resisting levels above it at 1827, 1844, 1885 before its highest level at $1920 which has been reached on 6th of last September while the way down can meet supporting levels now at $1648, $1627, $1592 before $1523 which could contain its falling from $1920 driving it up to reach these current levels.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[مشعل عبدالعزيز]

These days ; the gold in high risk trind that cann't be trusted unless the Europe and USA crises resolved... which will not be resolved .... It will be in bad conditions

[walid]

The Single currency has started the week underpinned by the Greek parliament approval of new austerities measures including 22% cutting of the minimum wage and also cutting of 150k public sectors jobs by 2015 with 15k of them to be cut within this year to reduce this year deficit to GDP percentage 1.5% to smooth the way for the EU Fin ministers to an announcement the beginning of the €130B second bailing out plan for Greece later this week when they meet in Brussels to help it to avoid default on 20th of next month, when it is to meet €14.4b due to be paid by God's will.
The single currency could open the week above 1.32 versus the greenback in the beginning of this week after it has closed last week below it on worries about passing these new austerities measures through the Greek parliament amid streets riots against them in Greece.
The Single currency came also under pressure by the end of the week with the ECB's worries about the inflation upside risks easing down significantly suggesting keeping its stimulating efforts for longer period putting pressure on the borrowing costs with no fear of the prices rising.
The ECB has removed from its assessment last Thursday after keeping the interest rate unchanged at 1% its recent repeated mantra saying that the inflation is expected to be above its target for several months ahead replacing it with risks to the medium-term outlook for price developments remain broadly balanced.
On the upside, they relate to higher than assumed increases in indirect taxes and administered prices as well as increases in the commodities prices while the main downside risks relate to the impact of weaker than expected growth in the euro area and globally and that will ensure a firm anchoring of inflation expectations in line with the ECB aim of maintaining inflation rates below but close to 2% over the medium term and such anchoring is a prerequisite for monetary policy to make its contribution to supporting economic growth and jobs creation in the euro area.
The ECB is expected to start offering new 1% yearly 3 years loans to the EU banking sector with easier collateral rules can open door for the small banks too to get use of them which can make the demand for this new round of loans more than last December round which has ended with 489b by lending 523 banks forming another weight on the single currency over the short term and over the long term, if these amples of liquidities have not been used as buffering for capital restructure of these banks not as a given chance for carrying risky assets longer or loading higher riskier assets getting use of the interest rate differential between them and the ECB offer which can lead to strong unreliable exposure for making a quick profit specially if the growth pace continued to be at its current soft rates.
God willing, EURUSD can meet now resistance again at 1.3320 whereas it has failed to continue rising up last Thursday easing back to 1.3154 last Friday and in the case of getting over 1.3320, it can another resistance at 1.3546 before 1.3613 while getting down again from here can be met by supporting levels at 1.3154, 1.3088, 1.3025 before the psychological level at 1.30 which can be followed by another supporting levels at 1.2930, 1.2874 before 1.2631 again whereas the pair could rebound to these current levels underpinned by easing of the markets EU Debt crisis worries on successful EU bonds auctions could drag its yields down sufficiently comparing with last November highs thanks to the ECB efforts for lowering the cost of borrowing.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The British pound is still holding most of its last week gains versus the greenback despite the current easing of the risk apatite in the first US trading session of this week which lead it to ease back to these current levels after it could break its recent resistance versus the greenback by the end of last week at 1.5883 reaching 1.5899 despite the contraction of UK Q4 GDP by 0.2% q/q as it was expected growing yearly by 0.7% while it was expected to show yearly growth by 0.8% and also the preliminary slump of UK quarterly total business investment by 5.6% which it was expected to show decreasing by just 0.7% after rising by 1% in the third quarter of last year following strong rising in the second quarter by 11.6% showing the strong need for the current QE plans of BOE.
God Willing, the markets are waiting ahead today for the voting results on the second bailing out plan of Greece in the germane parliament and later this week for the next EU summit meeting which is expected to discuss the issue of rising the EFSF amount under the pressure of the G20 recent meeting demand for trusting in funding the IMF efforts to help Europe to get over its debt problems.
while the cable is expected to face resistance now again at 1.593 which is still containing its previous rising from 1.5231 until now and the breaking of it can lead to facing the psychological level at 1.6 which can be followed by another resistance a 1.6091 before 1.6128 and 1.6164 while the way down can be met by important supporting level at 1.564 which could contain another falling of it last week following the minutes release of the recent MPC meeting on the 9th of this month which have shown voting in favor of increasing BOE's assets purchasing plan by Stg 75 Bln by its members miles and Posen while the other 7 members were preferring increasing by just Stg 50 Bln to not increase the current markets worries about UK economy and the current pressure on it amid the easing of the global economic growth pace and the EU debt crisis negative impacts on the economy which dampened the confidence in the business spending and consuming spending.
But the British pound could succeed to rise again underpinned by the rising of the risk appetite which has been fueled by increasing of the market certainty about the European funding of the Greek debt by the issuance of the second bailing out plan choosing helping Greece over letting it to the defaulting and its consequences and so, the pressure came back on the greenback helping the cable to form a second bottom above 1.564 giving its technical support to rise while breaking 1.564 was supposed to lead to meeting another supporting level at 1.5515 which can be followed by another one at 1.5449 before 1.5319 which breaking it can lead to 1.5231 again.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The pressure on the Aussie dollar has continued into the US session falling below its previous support versus the greenback at 1.0595 which has supported it previously on 23rd of last month and helped it to go up to 1.0854 whereas it has started easing back again to put technical pressure too on The Aussie dollar which came under pressure in the Asian session after the RBA decided too keep the interest rate unchanged again at 4.25% hinting that there can be a chance for a cut to come in the case of further deterioration in the economic performance amid continued easing of the inflation pressures saying that the inflation outlook would provide scope for easier monetary policy expecting CPI inflation to fall further over the next quarter or two and on the underlying terms, it expected the inflation to be around 2½ per cent over the coming one to two years and by abstracting from it the effects of the carbon price, it expected inflation to be from 2% to 3% y/y.
This maintained dovish inflation outlook could weighed on the Aussie dollar which has been actually undermined by the falling back of Feb AIG services performance index to 46.6 into the contracting territory after rising in Jan to 51.6 from 49 in December and 47.7 in November and also by the massive drop of the companies operating profits in the fourth quarter quarterly by 6.5% while the markets were waiting for no change after rising in the third quarter rising by 4.7%.
From another side, the Aussie has found the another pressure coming from the Chinese growth downgrading by china's prime minister Wen in his annual testimony in front of the Chinese Congress to be just 7.5% in 2012 from the previous estimation in 2005 to be 8% putting inflation target at 4% this year which means that the Chinese officials are expecting the growth to dampen the prices while the Chinese inflation rate in January was 4.5%y/y showing rooms for deeper declining to come and So, these expectations have raised the markets speculations of lower demand for the Australian commodities to be this year from China weighing down on the Aussie dollar.
From another side the greenback is still keeping its ascending pace since the Bernanke's semi annual testimony in front of the financial committee of the house last week which has dampen the expectation of having a QE3 soon again pushing up the demand for the US dollar which has been already underpinned by market risk aversion sentiment with the current worries about the possibility of failing of the current Greek offering to its debt private creditors for exchanging it with longer term debt voluntary which can trigger collective action clauses in Greece's bond swap to force them to do which can cause financial turmoil in the CDs market. So, the profit taken option was the favorite option to the investors at these current levels in the equities market before the end of this offering later next Thursday which is carrying new ECB and BOE meetings are need to be watched too by God's will.
God Willing, the Aussie dollar can face now versus the greenback, in the case of falling supporting levels at 1.0524, 1.0426, 1.0351, 1.0230, 1.0191, 1.0143. 1.0042 before parity while rising up again can face now resisting level at 1.0815 before 1.0854 again which breaking it can open the way for 1.1 psychological level before meeting another resistance at 1.1078 whereas it has starting falling on 27th of last July to reach 0.9385 on 4th of last October whereas it has formed its bottom to the these current levels.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

Despite the British conservative governmental choice to take the direction of lowering the budget deficit by placing austerities measures since it has started to rule after the labor government amid the debt crisis in EU, Fitch credit rating agency has changed the outlook of the British long term debt to negative from stable which means that there is 50% chance to lower its AAA rating in the coming 2 years by God's will.
Fitch has said that this step has come from its side because of it has addressed very limited fiscal space to absorb further adverse economic shocks amid the current debt crisis risks which weighing down on the economic growing pace of the Euro zone.
Fitch's decision has come last week even before the new budget announcement of 2013 which could be criticized too if it is to have stimulating plans because of the current high levels of debt or even if it is to have more austerities measures because of the current economic slow down!
While the inflation easing pressure in UK can help BOE to add more funds to its assets purchasing plan this year by God's will, after the inflation yearly rate had come under pressure in UK this year after diminishing the impact of the standard rate of VAT increasing to 20% from 17.5% on 4th January 2011 which has contributed in raising the inflation by about 0.75% yearly over all the months of 2011 to not be less than 4% yearly in any month of it, while the yearly inflation target of BOE is just 2%.
We have seen also last week significant drop of the wages in UK which can undermine the inflation upside risks too as UK Feb labor report has shown last week that UK ILO unemployment rate is still at 8.4% in the previous 3 months to January which is the highest since 1995 while in this same period, the average earnings excluding bonus have grown by 1.7% while the markets were waiting for easing back to just 1.9% from 2.0% and also the average earnings including bonus have decreased to 1.4% from 1.9% in the previous 3 months to December showing that's there is no worries about building inflation pressure, in the case of taking more easing steps by BOE.
The release of the MPC meeting minutes on the 9th of last February have shown also tendency of adding more funds by both of the MPC's members Posen and Miles who have voted in favor of increasing BOE's assets purchasing plan by Stg 75 Bln while the other 7 members were preferring increasing by just Stg 50 Bln to not increase the current markets worries about UK economy and the current pressure on it amid the easing of the global economic growth pace and the EU debt crisis negative impacts on the economy which dampened the confidence in the business spending and consuming spending which means that there is still chance for adding more funds to this plan by God's will in May after consuming the recent Stg 50 Bln added in that meeting next month as it is planed for spurring investment stimulating the economy which has contracted in the last quarter of 2011 by 0.2% growing yearly by just 0.7% on falling of UK quarterly total business investments by 5.6% which were expected to show decreasing by just 0.7% after rising by 1% in the third quarter of last year following strong rising in the second quarter by 11.6% referring to the strong need for the current QE policy while UK CPI is still heading down on the economic slowing down pressure which dragged the inflation rate down to 3.6% y/y in January from 5.2% in last September and we are waiting ahead tomorrow by God's will for the figure of February which is expected to show further easing to 3.4% yearly.
God willing, in the case of rising, the cable can meet now resistance at 1.5885 after breaking it previous resistance at 1.5745 by the end of last week after the data had come from US showing receding of the consuming confidence in March and monthly cooling of the industrial production in Feb beside continued easing of the inflation pressure over the consuming level after the producing level has shown also previously last week easing of the pricing power.
And in the case of breaking above 1.5885, it can meet another resistance at 1.60 psychological level after failing to break it by the end of last month making top at 1.5995 whereas it has started setting back to 1.5601 whereas it has formed its recent bottom which pushed it up to this current levels and in the case of declining, it can meet now supporting levels at 1.569 before 1.5601 again and breaking it can open the way for another supporting level at 1.5515 which can be followed by 1.5449 before another one at 1.5319 before its bottom at 1.5231.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

By God's will, the single currency is waiting now for what the EU Fin Min Meeting in Copenhagen can end to today while the speculations are increasing for emerging the current EFSF plan and the ESM which is awaited to work in the middle of this year as there can be put together in one package containing the 240b euros which is the lending capacity of the EFSF and the 500b which is the current planed value of the ESM.
This request has been highlighted also by the IMF managing director legarde but there was opposing from Merkel who looked much more convincible recently for adding more efforts for getting over the debt crisis even by enlarging the current bailing out plan as it has been asked by US, Japan and China in the recent G20 meeting for giving the IMF the role their supporting in the face of the crisis and current global economic slow down.
While the greenback is still suffering from the persisting conservative position of the Fed's Chief Bernenke toward removing the current accommodative easing policy worrying about the employment sector performance downplaying the inflation upside risks which can result from the current rising of the energy prices over the medium term.
The data from Europe has shown today that the Germane retail sales of February have rose by 1.7% monthly like what it has don in January while they were expected to rise by just 0.1% but EURUSD is still facing hardness to get over 1.34 and God willing, in the case of getting over it the pair can face another resistance at 1.3489 whereas it has formed its recent top which dragged the pair to 1.3003 and in the case of breaking 1.3489 the pair can meet other resisting levels at 1.3546, 1.3613, 1.3808 before 1.387 which is still unbreakable since the end of last October and after several tries to break it in last November while getting down from here can face supporting level again at 1.3251 which was this week low and breaking it can be followed by other supporting levels at 1.3133, 1.3048, 1.3003, 1.2973. 1.2930, 1.2874 before 1.2631 which was the pair formed bottom on 13th of last January to these current levels.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The single currency could get over 1.33 versus the greenback again with improving of the market sentiment after it has come under pressure yesterday on increasing worries about the Euro zone economic slow down which open the way for taking further easing steps by ECB for reviving the economy which is negatively impacted by EU governmental efforts for underpinning its revenues by hiking taxes and cutting its spending for having a stabilized financial situation in the face of the debt crisis risks which are still looming threating its creditability.
Yesterday, Mar EU Manufacturing PMI has come at 47.7 as expected and as the preliminary reading of it from 49 in February and also Feb EU Unemployment rate has come at 10.8% as expected from 10.7% in January but by the end of last week we have seen EU CPI flash reading of March coming at 2.6% y/y while it was expected to ease further to 2.5% from 2.7% in Feb and Jan which is well above the ECB 2% inflation target showing that there is still inflation upside risks as the ECB president Draghi has maintained recently because of the rising of the energy prices despite the economic slow down in the Euro zone.
God willing, the pair can face now resistance at 1.3384 which could stand in the face of it last week and breaking it can open the way for 1.3489 again whereas it has formed its recent top which dragged the pair to 1.3003 and in the case of breaking 1.3489 the pair can meet other resisting levels at 1.3546, 1.3613, 1.3808 before 1.387 which has not been broken since the end of last October and after several tries to break it in last November while getting back down from here can face supporting level at 1.3251 which could cap the pair falling supporting it to get over 1.33 again and in the case of breaking it, this can open the door for testing other supporting levels at 1.3133, 1.3048, 1.3003, 1.2973. 1.2930, 1.2874 before 1.2631 which has been the pair formed bottom on 13th of last January.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The worries about the US labor market have renewed again today with the rising of US initial jobless claim of the week ending on 7th April to 380k while it was expected to fall to 355k from 367k a week earlier.
The greenback has fallen across the broad as this figure pushed up the speculations of having another QE3 later this year and also lowered the possibility of hiking the interest rate in the beginning of 2004
The gold looked the most gainer of this data and jumped above 1670$ again in a similar reaction following the release of Mar US NFP which came adding only 120k Jobs while the market was widely waiting for 200k from 240k in February.
The single currency also could get over the current looming worries about the Spanish debt and it could get over its previous resistance versus the greenback at 1.3163
While the US equity market is trying to get more of its lost ground recently by this increasing prospective of having further easing steps by the Fed which always cares of the labor market performance which was worrying the Fed's chief Bernenke even before these recent data which highlighted to the market the vulnerable to deterioration stance of the US labor market while the market will be closely watching tomorrow for the release of Mar US CPI which is expected to show easing to 2.7% y/y from 2.9% in Feb by God's will to know more about the inflation pressure in US over the consuming level after the producing level have shown today falling of US PPI in March to 2.8% while it was forecasted to decline to 3.1% from 3.3% in Feb.
God willing, the gold can face now another resistance at $1684 resistance before the psychological level at $1700 per ounce which can be followed by another resistance at $1726 before $1790 whereas the it has started to fall by the end of last Feb to reach its recent bottom at $1612 in the fourth of this month and in the case of retreating back again from here, it can meet supporting level at $1650 before meeting this bottom again and breaking it too can open the way for another supporting level at $1592 before $1523 again which could contain previously its falling from $1920 driving it back up to these current levels.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The worries about the US labor market have renewed again today with the weekly US initial jobless claim of the week ending on 14th April coming at 386k while they were expected to fall to 370k from 380k a week earlier have been revised to 388k. So, the US equity market has opened in a mixed stance negatively impacted by this figure but cheered by the successful Spanish bonds Auctions today.
The greenback has under pressure after these weak data about the labor market performance which raised the speculations of having another QE3 later this year by the Fed lowering the possibility of hiking the interest rate in the beginning of 2014 to help the British pound to stand above 1.60 psychological level versus the greenback which has been surpassed yesterday after the MPC recent meeting minutes release yesterday which have shown that there was only one voting from Miles in favor of increasing the assets purchasing plan of BOE by Stg 25 Bln to Stg 350 Bln against 8 voters for making no change as Posen has finally joined the majority which is preferring keeping it at Stg 325 Bln.
The minutes have also shown BOE's worries about the inflation outlook because of the energy prices and the substantial contribution of BOE's assets purchasing programs for stimulating the economy in raising the prices in the same time showing that BOE believes that the inflation is to continue holding above its target in the near future by God's will.
We have seen this week that UK CPI has grown in March by 0.3% monthly to be up 3.5% y/y from 3.4% in February and this was the first rising after five consecutive drops since September 2011 when its formed its peak at 5.2% yearly and also over the producing level, we have seen recently that the prices have come higher than expected as the input prices rose by 5.8% yearly while they were expected to rose by just 4.7% from 7.8% in February and also the output prices have rose by 3.6% y/y while they were forecasted to rise by just 3.4% from 4.1% in February while the wages inflation upside risks are still easing as UK average earnings including bonus have decreased to 1.1% in the previous 3 months to February from 1.3%.
The yearly inflation rate had come under pressure in UK this year after diminishing the impact of the standard rate of VAT increasing to 20% from 17.5% on 4th January 2011 which has contributed in raising the inflation by about 0.75% yearly over all the months of 2011 to not be less than 4% yearly in any month of it, while the yearly inflation target of BOE is just 2%.
God willing, in the case of rising, the cable can meet now resistance at 1.6091 then 1.6128 before its recent top at 1.6164 which has been formed by the end of last October before setting back again reached its recent bottom at 1.5231 whereas it has started to rise again to these current levels and in the case of falling again the cable can have psychological support 1.6 before 1.5892 which can be followed by other supporting levels at 1.58, 1.5769, 1.569, 1.5515, 1.5449, 1.5319 before 1.5231 again.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The worries about the manufacturing sector performance in EU could contain the market sentiment in the beginning of this week with mysterious political outlook in France after the first round of the presidential elections which have shown greater than expected possibility of the social candidate Francois Hollande to win Nicolas Sarkozy and this political uncertainty in France can weigh on the Single currency in the coming days by the second round on 6th of May as the social candidate can confront imposing further austerity measures preferring supporting the growth putting aside containing the budget deficit making split in the core policy of the EU which is formed by Germany and France.
So, it looked to the market as a public referendum in France about this austerity policy and from another side, April EU manufacturing PMI flash reading has come down persisting of this sector weakness by sinking deeper into the contracting territory below 50 reaching 46 while the market was waiting for rising to 48 from 47.7 in April undermined by the germane manufacturing PMI preliminary reading of March which has fallen to 46.3 from 48.3 in March while the consensus was referring to rising to 49.
The Single currency has opened the week on a gap brought it below 1.32 versus the greenback and after the release of this weak data, it is trying hardly currently to stand above 1.31 while the greenback is getting momentum across the broad by the risk aversion sentiment which dampened the equities markets in EU and US.
God willing, further falling of the this pair can meet now support at 1.3056 before the psychological level at 1.30 which can be followed by other supporting levels at 1.2973. 1.2930, 1.2874 before 1.2631 which has been the pair formed bottom on 13th of last January while getting up again can face resistance at 1.3223 which has been reached by the end of last week and breaking it can open the way to 1.3384 again before 1.3489 whereas it has formed its recent top and in the case of breaking 1.3489 the pair can meet other resisting levels at 1.3546, 1.3613, 1.3808 before 1.387 which has not been broken since the end of last October and after several tries to break it in last November.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

With the rising of the market risk appetite again, the sterling could keep its place above 1.61 versus the greenback after the debt data which has shown rising of the total debt in March to Stg 1.02 trillion as the governmental deficit has rose in March excluding the banking support by Stg 18.2b and including it by Stg 15.87b from Stg 9.938b in February pushing the total debt to GDP ratio to 66% excluding the financial interventions highlighting the threat of credit downgrading again and the need of avoiding it.
As Fitch credit rating agency has changed previously last month the outlook of the British long term debt to negative from stable which means that there is 50% chance to lower its AAA rating in the coming 2 years by God's will and it has said that this step has come from its side because it has addressed very limited fiscal space to absorb further adverse economic shocks amid the current debt crisis risks which weighing down on the economic growing pace of the Euro zone while the British economic growth is still struggling growing up hardly by just 0.1% in the first quarter of this year quarterly from 0.3% in the last quarter of last year.
The British pound has been supported recently by the release of the MPC's meeting minutes which have shown BOE's worries about the inflation outlook because of the energy prices and the substantial contribution of BOE's assets purchasing programs in raising the prices which has shown rising yearly in March over the consuming level by 0.3% y/y from 3.4% in February and this was the first rising after five consecutive drops since September 2011 when UK CPI formed its peak at 5.2% yearly and these minutes have shown also have shown that there was only one voting from Miles in favor of increasing the assets purchasing plan of BOE by Stg 25 Bln to Stg 350 Bln against 8 voters for making no change as Posen has finally joined the majority which is preferring keeping it at Stg 325 Bln.
From another side, the British pound could find strength b y the end of last week by the release of UK retail sales of March which have rose by 3.3% y/y while the market was waiting for rising by just 1.4% from 1% in February.
God willing, in the case of rising, the cable can meet now resistance at its recent top at 1.6164 which has been formed by the end of last October and breaking it can open the way for higher resisting levels at 1.6206, 1.6251, 1.6332, 1.6452 and 1.5670 before its previous top at 1.6616 while the way down can be met by psychological support 1.6 before other supporting levels at 1.5892, 1.58, 1.5769, 1.569, 1.5515, 1.5449 and 1.5319 before 1.5231 again.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The greenback came under pressure again versus the Japanese yen following the release of March US consuming spending of March which came up monthly by 0.3% while the consensus was referring to rising by 0.4% after rising by 0.9% in February showing easing of US consuming pace after US consumer confidence of April came last week at 69.2 while it was expected to rose to 69.7 from 69.5 in March increasing the speculations of having more Fed's stimulating steps as its inflation preferred gauge PCE came today down to 2.1% y/y in March and it was expected to slide to 2.2% from 2.3% in February showing easing of the inflation pressure in the same time.
The greenback is trading now again below 80 psychological level versus the Japanese yen has been underpinned after BOJ had raised its JGB purchase by just Y10 trillion extending its 2 years maturity purchase of them to three years extending in the same time the deadline of its asset purchasing plan 6 months to June 2013 buying more 3 years corporate bonds showing its belief in reaching the short term inflation target which it has placed at 1% y/y last February.
The Japanese yen could get use of the dovish sentiment as a low yielding funding currency following this weak consuming figure too and God willing, USDJPY can meet now other supporting levels 78.97, 78.17, 77.35, 76.47 before 76.01 whereas it has started rising to 84.16 underpinned by the recent BOJ easing steps for fighting deflation and stimulating the economy which weighed down on the Japanese yen versus the greenback and in the case of rising of this pair again, it can face resisting level now at 81.76 and this can be followed by 83.37 before 84.16 again.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The Single currency is still facing difficulty in getting over 1.32 again after Draghi's press conference which has reflected the sack of confidence in the euro zone economy amid the debt crisis negative impacts on the governmental spending and on the demand for borrowing in the same time with the current inflation upside risks which are resulted from the high energy, commodities prices and the imposed taxes for supporting the EU governmental resources weighing down on the EU labor market which is in a weak stance while the economic pace of growth in US is still struggling.
These elements of missing trust are still capping the EU banking sector from taking full advantage from the ECB's LTROs despite its effectiveness in underpinning the liquidity in this sector avoiding collapse of it in the recent months after 2 rounds of giving loans for 3 years with just 1% yearly interest rate for reviving this sector with easy collateral rules could open the door for the small banks too to get use of them.
These loans which passed 1 trillion euros could give buffering for capital restructuring in this sector but it can be a given chance also for carrying risky assets longer or loading higher riskier assets getting use of the low yielding offered loans by the ECB which can lead to stronger unreliable exposure to toxic assets specially, if the growth pace held on this struggling situation in the face of the ongoing downside risks.
The ECB president looked worried also yesterday about the labor market in EU which carries the negative impact of debt crisis and the negative impact of the governmental efforts for getting over it by cutting its spending and hiking the taxes with rising of March EU unemployment to 10.9% showing persisting difficulty facing this sector called him for asking for restructure reforms and spending on the infrastructures for supporting demand in this market.
While the demand in the EU manufacturing sector has managed to fall further in the last month as we have seen also this week April EU manufacturing PMI coming at 45.9 deeper into the contracting territory below 50 from 46 in March from 49 in February and it is important here to mention that this index has not find a place above 50 in the expansion territory since July 2011.
He has avoided talking about the French election and its expected results impacts while it is still seen in the markets that winning of the social candidate can confront imposing further austerity measures making split between France and Germany who are the main policies markers in the Euro zone in the face of the crisis.
But anyway the single currency could have a place to close above 1.31 yesterday as he has not signaled a close interest rate cut or new LTROs or hinting to do as what was discounted to some extent in the markets and God willing in the case of falling further, this pair can meet now support at 1.3056 before the psychological level at 1.30 which can be followed by other supporting levels at 1.2973. 1.2930, 1.2874 before 1.2631 which has been the pair formed bottom on 13th of last January while getting up again can face resistance at 1.3281 whereas it has managed to come down this week and breaking it can open the way to 1.3384 again before 1.3489 whereas it has formed its recent top and in the case of breaking 1.3489 the pair can meet other resisting levels at 1.3546, 1.3613, 1.3808 before 1.387 which has not been broken since the end of last October and after several tries to break it in last November.
God willing, the market attention will be paid today to the release of US labor report of March which is expected to show rising of the US non-farm payrolls by 170K after adding 120k in March with no change of the Unemployment rate which is expected to be steady at 8.2% after April US ADP employment came earlier this week adding just 119k while the market was waiting for 175k from 201k in March.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The presidential elections in France and the parliament elections in Greece results are still putting pressure on the single currency as they looked to the market like a referendum on the austerities measures like this which has been asked by the previous Greek PM George Papandreou which lead to his resignation last year after retreating back of doing it amid strong criticism from EU core funding countries of the Greek debt as it is obvious that the streets in the countries south of Europe which are suffering from debt crisis are against these measures.
These measures included cuts of the public sector wages and jobs and cuts of the governmental spending and in the same time increasing of the taxes to dampen the growth in the same time they cut the deficit of these debt ailing countries budgets.
But the situation is different surely from France to Greece as it is not allowed to this last one to say no these measures and there is no leeway to go through without the European strict following up specially after announcing the second bailing out plan of Greece which counted this expected change into its account in its structure.
While the case in France is another thing as it will be required from the wealthy people to pay much with this new social president who promised to make a change in the EU fiscal pact in the benefit of the current struggling EU growth and this stance has effected negatively on the French stocks market as Germany can not accept this change easily and this can cause a split between these 2 countries who are the main EU policies markers in the face of the crisis which can lead to cracks inside the Euro zone which is suffering strong downside growth risks and weak labor market as what has been highlighted recently from The ECB president who looked worried last week after the ECB decision to keep the interest rate unchanged about the labor market in EU which carries the negative impact of debt crisis and the negative impact of the governmental efforts for getting over it by cutting its spending and hiking the taxes with rising of March EU unemployment to 10.9% showing persisting difficulty facing this sector and this pushed him to call for restructure reforms and spending on the infrastructures for supporting demand in this market for adding more jobs.
The ECB is still looking for positive changes by its recent LTROs 2 rounds in the European economy as they have done in the banking sector inside the EU which has been saved by this program but its impact on the European economy is still looking lagged behind and the sack of confidence in the euro zone economy can move it forward to take more steps in stimulating this economy which is giving weak signs and this prospective is putting pressure on the single currency versus the greenback from another side as it is not looking crucial to be done by the Fed as it looks currently in the euro zone so, it looks now that the ECB is the closer one to these measures than the Fed.
The ECB has not given last week hinting of a new LTROs or an interest rate cut decision which has not been discussed in the last meeting of its member as what has been announced in the press conference after it showing appreciation of the current inflation upside risks which are resulted from the high energy, commodities prices and the imposed taxes while the downside risks are pushing down by the economic slowing down expecting the inflation to stance above the ECB 2% y/y target in 2012 before easing below it in the beginning of 2013 by God's will.
God willing after opening this week below its previous support at 1.3056 falling below its psychological level at 1.30 reaching 1.2953 in the beginning of the week, this pair can meet another supporting level at 1.2930, 1.2874 before 1.2631 which has been the pair formed bottom on 13th of last January while getting up again can face resistance at 1.30 63 whereas it has failed to recover further this week to fall again below 1.30 and in the case of breaking it, it can meet a higher resistance at 1.3180 and this can be followed by 1.3281 which its breaking can open the way to 1.3384 again before 1.3489 whereas it has formed its recent top and in the case of breaking 1.3489 the pair can meet other resisting levels at 1.3546, 1.3613, 1.3808 before 1.387 which has not been broken since the end of last October and after several tries to break it in last November.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The presidential elections in France and the parliament elections in Greece results are still putting pressure on the single currency as they looked to the market like a referendum on the austerities measures like this which has been asked by the previous Greek PM George Papandreou which lead to his resignation last year after retreating back of doing it amid strong criticism from EU core funding countries of the Greek debt as it is obvious that the streets in the countries south of Europe which are suffering from debt crisis are against these measures.
These measures included cuts of the public sector wages and jobs and cuts of the governmental spending and in the same time increasing of the taxes to dampen the growth in the same time they cut the deficit of these debt ailing countries budgets.
But the situation is different surely from France to Greece as it is not allowed to this last one to say no these measures and there is no leeway to go through without the European strict following up specially after announcing the second bailing out plan of Greece which counted this expected change into its account in its structure.
While the case in France is another thing as it will be required from the wealthy people to pay much with this new social president who promised to make a change in the EU fiscal pact in the benefit of the current struggling EU growth and this stance has effected negatively on the French stocks market as Germany can not accept this change easily and this can cause a split between these 2 countries who are the main EU policies markers in the face of the crisis which can lead to cracks inside the Euro zone which is suffering strong downside growth risks and weak labor market as what has been highlighted recently from The ECB president who looked worried last week after the ECB decision to keep the interest rate unchanged about the labor market in EU which carries the negative impact of debt crisis and the negative impact of the governmental efforts for getting over it by cutting its spending and hiking the taxes with rising of March EU unemployment to 10.9% showing persisting difficulty facing this sector and this pushed him to call for restructure reforms and spending on the infrastructures for supporting demand in this market for adding more jobs.
The ECB is still looking for positive changes by its recent LTROs 2 rounds in the European economy as they have done in the banking sector inside the EU which has been saved by this program but its impact on the European economy is still looking lagged behind and the sack of confidence in the euro zone economy can move it forward to take more steps in stimulating this economy which is giving weak signs and this prospective is putting pressure on the single currency versus the greenback from another side as it is not looking crucial to be done by the Fed as it looks currently in the euro zone so, it looks now that the ECB is the closer one to these measures than the Fed.
The ECB has not given last week hinting of a new LTROs or an interest rate cut decision which has not been discussed in the last meeting of its member as what has been announced in the press conference after it showing appreciation of the current inflation upside risks which are resulted from the high energy, commodities prices and the imposed taxes while the downside risks are pushing down by the economic slowing down expecting the inflation to stance above the ECB 2% y/y target in 2012 before easing below it in the beginning of 2013 by God's will.
God willing after opening this week below its previous support at 1.3056 falling below its psychological level at 1.30 reaching 1.2953 in the beginning of the week, this pair can meet another supporting level at 1.2930, 1.2874 before 1.2631 which has been the pair formed bottom on 13th of last January while getting up again can face resistance at 1.30 63 whereas it has failed to recover further this week to fall again below 1.30 and in the case of breaking it, it can meet a higher resistance at 1.3180 and this can be followed by 1.3281 which its breaking can open the way to 1.3384 again before 1.3489 whereas it has formed its recent top and in the case of breaking 1.3489 the pair can meet other resisting levels at 1.3546, 1.3613, 1.3808 before 1.387 which has not been broken since the end of last October and after several tries to break it in last November.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The pressure is still continued at the single currency because of the political risks which threatening the union after Hollande's winning in France and the failure of forming a new government in Greece which will be waiting for another parliament elections next month by God's will.
The negative side of this critical situation is standing mainly over the short term to the single currency with the markets shrugging off any positive data or successful bonds auctions in the Euro zone focusing on these risks which can lead to expelling Greece out of the euro increasing the risks looming around other debt ailing countries like Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy.
While the positive side is that this debt ailing country getting out of the euro can make it much more credible especially as EU has been dealing with the Greece situation as a special case in the Euro zone from the beginning despite the weak financial situation of other countries inside the Euro zone but it is not allowed to Greece to say no any measures and there is no leeway to go through without the European strict following up after announcing the second bailing out plan of Greece which counted this expected change into its account in its structure.
The running discussions in the market now are about a great chance of buying the single currency after this event but the fear of contagion risks will be always there with the need of stability in the EU financial system and confidence in the governments ability to get over its budget deficit while the economy is struggling and in need to be revived to make the investors trust that the worst has become behind of us.
So, The ECB can find that it is inevitable again to start another LTROs round or cutting the interest rate as a monetary option with the current growing social direction inside the Euro zone which is fighting the austerities measure and that's still looking from Hollande's stance which can encourage other countries to do so laying on the need of stimulating the economy currently..
God willing, in the case of falling further the pair can meet now 1.2631 which has been formed bottom on 13th of last January and breaking it can open the way for lower supporting levels at 1.2586, 1.2151 before 1.1876 whereas the pair has rebounded forming its bottom on 7th of June 2010 which drove the pair later to reach 1.4939 on 4th of May 2011 whereas the pair has managed to ease back again and in the case of rising again the pair can face resisting levels now at 1.2757, 1.2867, 1.3063, 1.3180 and this can be followed by 1.3281 which its breaking can open the way to 1.3384 again before 1.3489 whereas it has formed its recent top and in the case of breaking 1.3489 the pair can meet other resisting levels at 1.3546, 1.3613, 1.3808 before 1.387 which has not been broken since the end of last October and after several tries to break it in last November.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The greenback could find demand again after the risk appetite has got a new hit today by the released Chinese comments about its plans to not be aggressive in stimulating its economy while the worries about the Spanish banking system are still putting pressure on the single currency versus the greenback after it could raise its head over the 1.26 level in the beginning of the week following an opinion poll in Greece has shown rising of the pro-bailing out parties.
The single currency could hardly hover over 1.25 by the end of last week with increasing market worries about the debt contagion risks in the EU and the economic slow down which can lead to further ECB's easing steps by injecting more cheap money into its struggling banking system for reviving the economy and calling the market worries especially in the case of Greece's departure out of the EU.
God Willing, We are waiting today for May US consumer confidence release which is expected to be 70 from 69.2 in April before series of data about the US economy to come this week about US pace of growth in the first quarter and also about the manufacturing sector and the labor market performances this month while the market is living a wait and see stance looking for new clues about the political situation in Greece and the Spanish banking sector.
God willing, in the case of falling further the pair can meet now supporting level at 1.25 psychological level which is still holding capping it from further loses which can lead to reaching 1.2151 which its breaking can open the way for 1.1876 again whereas the pair has rebounded forming its bottom on 7th of June 2010 which drove the pair later to reach 1.4939 on 4th of May 2011 whereas the pair has managed to ease back again and in the case of rising again the pair can face resisting levels now at 1.2626, 1.2757, 1.2867, 1.3063, 1.3180 and this can be followed by 1.3281 which its breaking can open the way to 1.3384 again before 1.3489 whereas it has formed its recent top and in the case of breaking 1.3489 the pair can meet other resisting levels at 1.3546, 1.3613, 1.3808 before 1.387 which has not been broken since the end of last October and after several tries to break it in last November.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

بدأ اليورو تداولاته هذا الإسبوع امام الدولار فوق مستوى ال 1.24 بعد أن تغير الجو العام لأسواق يوم الجمعة الماضية في إتجاة بيع الدولار عقب صدور تقربر العمالة الأمريكي لشهر مايو و الذي أظهر إضافة 69 الف وظيفة خارج القطاع الزراعي بينما كانت تُشير التوقعات لإضافة 150 ألف وظيفة كما تم مراجعة إضافة إبريل ل 77 ألف من 115 ألف في القراءة الأولية كما أظهر التقرير أيضاً إرتفاع معدل البطالة ل 8.2% بينما كان من المُنتظر إستقراره عند 8.1% كما كان الحال في إبريل كما تلى صدور تلك البيانات التي تُشير إلى صعوبة في إنتاج الوظائف في الولايات المتحدة مجيء أيضاً مؤشرISM لمديرين المشتريات في الولايات المتحدة عن القطاع الصناعي على تراجع ل 53.5 عن شهر مايو بينما كان المتوقع تراجعه ل 53.9 فقط من 54.8 في إبريل كما تراجع مؤشر الأسعار المدفوعة داخل هذا المؤشر بقوة ل 47.5 بينما كان المُنتظر تراجع ل 56.8 من 61 في إبريل مما يُشير إلى تراجع الضغوط التضخمية داخل هذا القطاع الذي يشهد في نفس الوقت تراجع في أسعار المواد الخام ليتعرض الدولار الأمريكي لضغط أمام اليورو نتيجة تنامي التوقعات بإتخاذ الفدرالي مذيد من الخطوات التحفيزية قد تأتي في صورة خطة ثالثة لدعم الكمي خاصةً بعد إتمام تنفيذ قرار الإنتقال من السندات قصيرة الأجل لسندات طويلة الأجل بقيمة 400 مليار دولار بنهاية الشهر الجاري ليتمكن اليورو من إغلاق الإسبوع فوق مستوى ال 1.24 أمام الدولار بعد أن قد كان يتداول قبل صدور بيانات سوق العمالة الأمريكية عند 1.232 أمام الدولار.
و قد أدى تراجع شهية المخاطرة المصاحب لصدور هذة البيانات لهبوط اليورو أمام الدولار ل 1.2286 قبل أن يعود و يرتد لأعلى حيثُ يتداول عند هذة المستويات الحالية بعد تركيز الأسواق على تراجع الإقتصاد الأمريكي و احتياجه للتحفيز و تنتظر الاسواق بإهتمام هذا الإسبوع صدور بيان ال Beige Book كما تنتظر حديث من بن برنانكي رئيس الفدرالي لمعرفة المذيد عن إتجاة الفدرالي و كان قد سبق و أقر بن برنانكي بأن المشاكل التي يُعاني منها سوق العمل الحالية دورية و ليست هيكلية مما قد يُرجح الإتجاة لتحفيزه من خلال الفدرالي الذي ظل في تقاريره الصادرة عنه مؤخراً محتفظاً بإحتمال اللجوء إلى هذا الخيار في حال تدهور أداء الإقتصاد الأمريكي الذي نمى ب 1.9% سنوياً في البرع الأول كما اظهرت أخر قراءة له الإسبوع الماضي.
و يُتوقع أن يُقابل اليورو الأن بإذن الله في حال مواصلة الإرتفاع مقاومة عند مستوى ال 1.25 النفسي ثم عند 1.2622 يليها 1.2822 ثم عند مستوى ال 1.30 النفسي قبل 1.3063 ف 1.318 ثم 1.3281 التي قد يتبع سقوطها مواجهة 1.3384 قبل مقابلة مقاومتة السابقة عند 1.3489 التي فشل في إختراقها بنهاية شهر فبراير الماضي ليُعاود الهبوط و يُنتظر في حال الإستمرار في هذة الهبوط مواجهة 1.2286 التي إرتد منها يوم الجمعة الماضية يليه 1.2151 قبل ملاقاة مستوى لدعم النفسي عند 1.20 الذي قد يتبعه 1.18 حيثُ أدنى نقطة وصل إليها في السابع من يونيو 2010 تحت ضغط أذمة الديون اليونانية أيضاً.

خبير أسواق العملات
وليد صلاح الدين
00201224659143
mail@fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The pressure on the greenback has continued during the Asian session after the market focusing had been shifted to the weakness of the US labor market and the possibility of having more easing steps from the Fed to stimulate it from the EU debt crisis and the problems which are facing the Spanish banking sector and the mixed political situation in Greece.
The single currency could rise again over 1.25 psychological level versus the greenback despite the current market risk aversion sentiment which always underpins the greenback and the Japanese yen by unwinding of the carry trades as low yielding currencies.
God Willing, The market is waiting now for the release of Fed's Beige Book and the testimony of the Fed's Chief later this week to know more about the fed's appreciation of the current economic pace of growth specially after the recent manufacturing and industrial data which have shown further losing momentum as May US ISM Manufacturing index has come at 53.3 by the end of last week while the market was waiting for 53.9 from 54.8 in April and in the beginning of this week we have seen US factories orders of April down monthly by 0.6% while the market consensus was referring to rising by 0.3%after falling by 2.1% in March.
The market is also waiting tomorrow for the ECB's interest rate decision and the press conference of Mario Draghi which is awaited after it to know more about the stance amid the current exacerbating economic conditions in the EU to know whether there are new injection of cheap money into its struggling banking system for reviving the economy or not with the current market worries about Greece's departure out of the EU.
We have seen also easing of the pricing pressure in the manufacturing sector by the falling of US ISM manufacturing prices paid index into the contracting territory to 47.5 while the market was waiting for easing to 56.8 from 61 in April showing easing of the inflation pressure accompanied with the recent falls of energy and commodities prices giving distance to the Fed's to take such waited steps to stimulate the economy with no worries about the inflation upside risks.
God willing, the single currency can meet now resisting levels at 1.2626, 1.2757, 1.2867, 1.3063, 1.3180 and this can be followed by 1.3281 which its breaking can open the way to 1.3384 again before 1.3489 whereas it has formed its recent top and in the case of breaking 1.3489 the pair can meet other resisting levels at 1.3546, 1.3613, 1.3808 before 1.387 which has not been broken since the end of last October and after several tries to break it in last November while its way for falling again can be met with supporting levels at 1.2357 before 1.2286 which could hold by the end of last week and the breaking of it can lead again to 1.2151 which its breaking can open the way for 1.1876 again whereas the pair has rebounded forming its bottom on 7th of June 2010 which drove the pair later to reach 1.4939 on 4th of May 2011 whereas the pair has managed to ease back again.

Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com