اجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي واحتمال زيادة معدل سعر الفائدة ربع نقطه

[ترايدر]

Updated: 28-Mar-06 08:34 ET


08:34 ET

Fed Day :
The Fed will announce a 1/4% hike in the fed funds rate target to 4 3/4% this afternoon at about 2:15 ET. They will also release their policy statement at that time.

The stock market is likely to be very stable up until the announcement. It could be very volatile afterwards.

There are expectations that the Fed will change the wording of the announcement to signal that the end of the current round of rate hikes will soon be ending. In fact, they might change the wording slightly. New Fed Chairman Bernanke may prefer a different wording.

Any change won't be significant, however. The Fed doesn't know for sure how many more rate hikes are coming, so it is impossible for them to provide a clear signal to the market. The end is certainly coming closer with each move, but changing a word from "may be needed" to "might be needed" is not some cryptic code that actually means just one more rate hike. It will depend on the trends in the economy and inflation in the months ahead.

There is no hidden plan that will be revealed to those who can break the Fed's code words.

The recent data hasn't changed enough for the Fed to signal any great change in approach. The economy remains strong, and inflation is steady. In fact, there is an argument that conditions have worsened and that Fed needs to remain aggressive. The previous policy statement said, "possible increases in resource utilization as well as elevated energy prices have the potential to add to inflationary pressures."

If that phrase is in the statement again, it means the Fed is concerned that tight labor and industrial market conditions need to be addressed. Hourly earnings and core PPI have picked up recently as unemployment remains low and capacity utilization is rising.

The market is fully capable of over-analyzing the policy statement. Our belief is that the Fed currently expects that, depending on the data, they will need to raise rates at least one more, and possibly two more times.

The only other major news this morning is that oil is up this morning and pushing $65 a barrel. It is starting to re-emerge as a market concern. -- Dick Green, Briefing.com.




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سيكون اجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي في ظل رئيسه الجديد بن برنانكي، اليوم الثلاثاء الموافق 28-3-2006م في تمام الساعة 2.15 ظهراً بتوقيت نيويورك واحتمال ان يسفر الاجتماع عن زيادة معدل سعر الفائدة ربع نقطه لتصل بذلك الى 4.75 نقطه .
من المتوقع ان يكون تداول السوق الى حين الاجتماع يشوبه نوع من الحذر لترقب زيادة معدل سعر الفائدة ليأخذ السوق المسار الصحيح بعد الاعلان المرتقب كما سيتم خلال الاجتماع الاعلان عن زيادات قادمه او الاكتفاء بمعدل سعر الفائدة الحالي التي بدأت بالارتفاع من عام 2004م ثمان مرات بواقع ربع نقطه البيان الذي سيصدر اليوم الثلاثاء ويأتي عقب اجتماعات "الاحتياطي الفيدرالي" السابقة سيكون هو المُحرك الرئيسي للسوق ورغبات المُستثمرين، إنه البوصلة التي تُحدد اتجاه الجميع، ففي كل مرة يزداد ارتباط المُستثمرين بمصير الفائدة أكثر من ذي قبل، فالجميع يظن أن رفع الفائدة قد انتهى وأنه اقترب زوال الضغوط المالية التي تفرضها سياسة رفع الفائدة على أرباح الشركات وتكاليف تشغيلها، لذا فإنه في حالة صدور مفاجأة إيجابية في كلام المحافظ فإن السوق سيقفز بشكل قوي ولا يُستبعد حدوث ارتفاع سريع Rally.

إذن سيقود السوق في بداية الأسبوع بيان البنك المركزي ثم سيتولى من بعده القيادة عدد من البيانات الاقتصادية المهمة، حيث فسيصدر يوم الثلاثاء مؤشر ثقة المُستهلك لشهر آذار (مارس)، الذي يُتوقع له أن يرتفع إلى 102 بعد أن كان 101.7 في شباط (فبراير)، أما يوم الخميس سيصدر معدل الناتج المحلي عن الربع الرابع بصورته النهاية ليصل حسب التوقعات إلى 1.7 في المائة بعد أن وصل إلى 1.6 في المائة.

أيضاً ستستمر البيانات والمؤشرات الاقتصادية في الصدور حتى يوم الجمعة، وأهمها بيان عن حجم دخل الفرد وإنفاقه. توقعات الاقتصاديين تتحدث عن ارتفاع في دخل الفرد بنسبة 0.4 في المائة مقارنة بالنمو 0.7 في المائة في شباط (فبراير) الماضي، بينما على النقيض يُتوقع انخفاض إنفاقه 0.1 في المائة بعد أن كان 0.9 في المائة في شباط (فبراير) الماضي، كما يجب التنويه ان سعر البترول وصل في تعاملات هذا الصباح الى سعر
65$.[/FONT]

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ترايدر

[ahmadalmalki]

جزاك الله خير على التنبيه
وياليت تعطينا الاخبار اول باول وتأثيرها على السوق
بارك الله فيك

[moosab52]

السلام عليكم

اخي العزيز تراير مشكور على هذه المعلومه

والمعلومه الاهم راقب قطاع المعادن وخاصه الفضه منه للاسابيع القادمه

مجرد فضه فقط

[ترايدر]

السلام عليكم

اخي العزيز تراير مشكور على هذه المعلومه

والمعلومه الاهم راقب قطاع المعادن وخاصه الفضه منه للاسابيع القادمه

مجرد فضه فقط

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اخي الكريم
القطاعات التي لاتتأثر بالتضخم وبالتالي من ارتفاع معدل سعر الفائدة في حالة كون الاقتراض بفائدة = صفر فهي على النحو التالي :
القطاعات الاقل تأثير
Industry: Department Stores
Industry: Drugs - Generic
Industry: Restaurants
القطاعات المستفيده
Industry: Investment Brokerage - National

==============

ترايدر

[ترايدر]

AP
Fed Boosts Key Interest Rate for 15th Time
Tuesday March 28, 3:10 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Fed Boosts Key Interest Rate to Highest in Five Years; Officials Leave Door Open for More Hikes


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve on Tuesday boosted a key interest rate to the highest level in five years as new Chairman Ben Bernanke followed the Alan Greenspan inflation-fighting formula.
The action, the 15th consecutive quarter-point move, left the federal funds rate at 4.75 percent, its highest level since April 2001.

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Fed officials, who were holding their first interest rate meeting under Bernanke, left the door open for further rate increases although private economists believe only one or two more rate hikes are likely.

The quarter-point rate hike had been widely expected. Bernanke has emphasized since being chosen by President Bush that he planned to continue Greenspan's approach toward setting interest rates. That approach was characterized by baby steps aimed at giving markets and investors plenty of time to adjust.

"Mr. Bernanke has chosen incrementalism over radical change in his first meeting," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, a consulting firm.

"There is no fundamental change from Mr. Greenspan," said David Jones, chief economist at DMJ Advisors, another firm.

Jones said the only small difference was in an expanded paragraph that went into greater detail about the Fed's views on how the economy is performing.

The Fed said economic growth had "rebounded strongly" and the run-up in the price of energy and other commodities had had only a "modest effect on core inflation."

Jones predicted the Fed would raise rates one more time to 5 percent and then stop.

On Wall Street, investors pushed stocks lower following the Fed announcement, expressing disappointment that the central bank did not send a stronger signal that the rate hikes would be ending soon.

The Fed's latest move will mean higher interest rates for both consumers and businesses. KeyCorp was the first bank to announce it was raising its prime lending rate by a similar quarter-point to 7.75 percent. The prime is the benchmark for millions of business and consumer loans.

In its statement, the Fed sounded at an upbeat note about the current business climate, saying "economic growth has rebounded strongly in the current quarter but appears likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace."

The statement retained language used last time that "some further policy firming may be needed." That was seen by financial markets as a signal that further rate hikes could occur.

When the central bank began tightening credit conditions in June 2004, the prime rate stood at 4 percent and so did the federal funds rate, both the lowest levels since the late 1950s when Dwight D. Eisenhower was president.

Those unusually low levels were reached as the central bank beginning in 2001 worked to protect the economy from the blows dealt by a bursting stock market bubble, the 2001 recession, terrorist attacks and a prolonged period of job losses even after the economy began to recover in November of that year.

The Fed's goal has been to reach a point where interest rates are neither stimulating nor depressing economic growth.

Many analysts believe the Fed is very close to that level but may feel the need to push the funds rate up one more time to 5 percent from moving to the sidelines for the rest of the year.

However, other analysts who are more worried about inflation pressures say the Fed may feel the need to boost rates not only at the next meeting on May 10 but also at perhaps two more meetings after that, leaving the funds rate at 5.5 percent.

Greenspan retired after 18 1/2 years at the Fed. Bernanke was nominated by Bush to succeed him. Bernanke had been an economics professor at Princeton specializing in monetary policy before serving as a Fed board member from 2002 to 2003 when Bush tapped him to be chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.



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تم رفع معدل سعر الفائدة بواقع ربع نقطه لتصل الى 4.75 % ويعتبر الارتفاع الخامس عشر منذ عام 2001م
كما المح رئيس المصرف الفدرالي ان قد تكون امامنا زياده لمره او مرتين بواقع ربع نقطه وانه ماضي في سياسه جرينسبان الرئيس السابق للمصرف الفدرالي للحد من التضخم كما ان ثقه الرئيس بوش فيه تقتضي الاسراع في حل المشاكل الاقتصادية التي قد تعترض الاقتصاد الامريكي الا ان المفيد في هذا الاجتماع انه صرح بان الاقتصاد الامريكي عاد الى حالة الطبيعية وبقوه رغم تأثير اسعار الطاقة والسلع التي اثرت بشكل بسيط على التضخم .
كما المح ان قد تصل معدل سعر الفائدة الى 5 % وقد تتوقف مما اثر على اداء المستثمرين بشكل عام كونه لم يعطي اشارة قويه الى توقف سعر الفائدة بشكل نهائي كما انه ركز الى ان الفقاعة التي صاحبت احداث الحادي عشر من سبتمر من عام 2001م لن تكرر حفاظا على نمو الاقتصاد الامريكي بشكل اسرع خلال هذا الربع كونه عاد بقوه الى حالته الطبيعه ويتوقع ان يتسارع بشكل اكبر خلال هذا الربع مع الحد على التضخم بشكل متوازن .
كما توقع محللون ان تكون الزيادة القادمه بربع نقطه في 10 مايو القادم وقد تصل في نهاية العام الى 5.5% .
ويشعر بعض المحلليين بالقلق ازاء ضغوط التضخم .
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بقيه التقرير عباره عن سيرته الذاتيه بشكل مختصر متخصص في السياسة النقديه عمل في لجنة المصرف الفدرالي من عام 2002-2003 وبعدها تم تعيينه كبير الاقتصاديين في البيت الابيض من قبل بوش وبعد احالة جرينسبان الى التقاعد تم تعيينه خلفه عنه .
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ترايدر

[ترايدر]

Fed Brief About this page | Print version

In depth analysis of Federal Reserve Policy. Archive



Updated: 08-May-06 12:51 ET

New in the Research Section: FOMC

Rate Hike Wednesday but June Unclear


The Fed's policy making committee -- the FOMC -- meets Wednesday as expectations are united for a 25 bp hike in the overnight policy rate to 5%. By noting 'that some further policy firming may be needed' in the March policy statement the forward policy read was set as Fedspeak never debated the markets' expectation.

The tone provided by the May policy statement will provide a read on the direction of policy rates at the June and forward meetings. The minutes from the March meeting included that 'most members thought that the end of the tightening process was likely to be near as some expressed concerns about the dangers of tightening too much...' Fed Chairman Bernanke has been clear that forward policy direction is dependent on the economic data as a pause in the tightening may only interrupt the rate hikes rather than end them.

Briefing.com expects the Fed to craft a statement which is non-committal on June policy direction which will leave some frustration from the market which now presumes transparency on future direction. The truth is that a neutral statement with an inflation bias (given risks) would be quite upfront as the policy makers want to assess the need for further rate hikes given the lagged effects of policy adjustment on the economy. When the policy rate reached 6%+ levels in past tightening cycles the economy stalled. The Fed doesn't need or want to short circuit the strong economy.

Only 5 of the 22 primary dealers currently expect a June hike in the policy rate as the other 77% expect a June pause. A small majority (59%) expects 2006 to end with a 5% or lower policy rate as the 41% expecting a higher year-end rate only include one or two added hikes.

The funds futures market reflects those market expectations with a 25 bp hike fully priced in for Wednesday. The July contract currently argues for a pause given the no-go 40% probability for a June 29 hike at the FOMC meeting. However, the August contract currently prices in 92% probability for a return to a 25 bp hike to a 5.25% policy rate at the August 8 policy meeting. The extended contracts are quite volatile and will respond to the policy statement, Fedspeak and the key economic data

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سيكون اجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي في ظل رئيسه الجديد بن برنانكي، غداً الاربعاء الموافق 10-5-2006م ومن المحتمل ان يسفر الاجتماع عن زيادة معدل سعر الفائدة ربع نقطه لتصل بذلك الى5 % .

من المتوقع ان يكون تداول السوق الى حين الاجتماع يشوبه نوع من الحذر لترقب زيادة معدل سعر الفائدة ليأخذ السوق المسار الصحيح بعد الاعلان المرتقب كما سيتم خلال الاجتماع الاعلان عن زيادات قادمه او الاكتفاء بمعدل سعر الفائدة الحالي التي بدأت بالارتفاع من عام 2004م 9مرات بواقع ربع نقطه البيان الذي سيصدر غدا الاربعاء ويأتي بعد اجتماعات "الاحتياطي الفيدرالي" سيكون هو المُحرك الرئيسي للسوق ورغبات المُستثمرين،وهو البوصلة التي تُحدد اتجاه المستثمرين ، ففي كل مرة يزداد ارتباط المُستثمرين بمصير الفائدة أكثر من ذي قبل، فالجميع يظن أن رفع الفائدة قد ينتهي وأنه اقترب زوال الضغوط المالية التي تفرضها سياسة رفع الفائدة على أرباح الشركات وتكاليف تشغيلها، لذا فإنه في حالة صدور مفاجأة إيجابية في كلام المحافظ فإن السوق سيقفز بشكل قوي كردة فعل ايجابية طبعا كمستثمرين في الاسواق الامريكية نتمنى ان يتم الاشارة الى التحسن في الاسواق الامريكية وتحديد اتجاه الكوارتر القادم حتى وان تم رفع معدل سعر الفائدة كما حدث في الاجتماع الماضي .

مع التنبيه انه في حالة نزول اي شركة تمتلكه بدون اي اخبار عن الشركة فهذا شئ طبيعي جدا نظراً لترقب الاسواق لنتائج هذا الاجتماع .
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ترايدر

[ترايدر]

Page One About this page | Print version

Synopsis of Briefing.com's analysis. Archive



Updated: 10-May-06 08:19 ET


08:19 ET

Fed Day Finally Arrives:
The market is still on Fed watch. The S&P was up less than 1 point yesterday after about a 1 point decline on Monday. S&P futures suggest a near flat open this morning.

The stability will end after the Fed policy statement this afternoon at about 2:15 ET. Another 1/4% hike in the fed funds rate target to 5% is assumed. The big issue will be the wording of the policy statement and whether that implies that the Fed is concerned about continued strong economic growth and associated inflationary pressures, or whether a "pause" is likely.

The Fed may indeed indicate that they are inclined to not raise rates at the June 29 meeting based on current conditions. They may deem it prudent to take some time to assess the impact of previous rate hikes. However, they won't paint themselves into a corner. They need the flexibility to react to incoming data, whatever it may be, and that next meeting is a full seven weeks away. The statement won't provide any guarantees.



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سيكون الاجتماع في تمام الساعة 2.15 بتوقيت نيويورك في هذا اليوم الاربعاء الموافق 10-5- 2006 م
و من المحتمل ان يتم رفع معدل سعر الفائدة بربع نقطه خلال هذا الاجتماع
وسيكون الاجتماع القادم في 29-6-2006 م بعد سبع اسابيع من الان ومن المحتمل ان لايتم رفع سعر الفائدة خلال الاجتماع القادم .
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ترايدر

[ترايدر]

ed Leaves Door Open for Further Hikes
Wednesday May 10, 4:10 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Federal Reserve Raises Key Interest Rate to 5 Percent, Leaves Door Open for Further Rate Hikes


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised a key interest rate to the highest level in more than five years and signaled it may pause to assess the impact of its string of rate hikes. However, the Fed also left the door open for further rate increases.
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The Fed boosted its target for the federal funds rate to 5 percent. The funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, stood at a 46-year low of 1 percent when the central bank began raising rates in June 2004 to keep inflation under control.

In its statement announcing the decision, Fed policymakers indicated they may take at least a brief pause in pushing rates up further. It said the "extent and timing" of further rate increases would depend on future economic data.

Analysts said they read the new wording as a strong signal that the central bank will not raise rates at the next meeting on June 28-29. But analysts also said that if the economy does not slow as the Fed is forecasting, then the central bank will hike rates one or possibly two more times later this year.

"The most likely outlook is that they will pause at the June meeting, but if growth does not slow this summer, they will be tightening by August," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.

Wall Street, which had been hoping the Fed would state more plainly that it could be finished raising rates, expressed disappointment with the new statement. Stocks widened their losses after the midafternoon announcement.

The Fed's rate hikes have raised the borrowing costs for millions of Americans on everything from adjustable rate home mortgages to auto loans.

Commercial banks quickly followed the Fed announcement by raising their prime rate, the benchmark for many consumer and business loans, to a five-year high of 8 percent.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had raised expectations that the central bank was getting ready to pause when he told Congress on April 27 that the central bank might take a break for "one or more meetings."

Bernanke, who succeeded the legendary Alan Greenspan as Fed chairman on Feb. 1, said a pause would give the central bank time to assess the impact that its long string of rate increases was having on the economy.

In the statement announcing Wednesday's rate increase, the Fed said some further hikes "may yet be needed." That marked a slight modification from the March statement when it said further rate increases "may be needed."

It added another phrase in the latest statement saying that "the extent and timing of any such firming will depend importantly on the evolution of the economic outlook as implied by incoming information."

Bernanke had created confusion about the exact meaning of his congressional remarks when he was quoted by CNBC as saying that financial markets had misread his congressional testimony.

That comment came after bond prices, always sensitive to inflation worries, had fallen on fears that Bernanke would not be as tough as Greenspan in fighting inflation.

Private economists are split over whether Wednesday's rate hike will be the last for awhile or whether the Fed may pause for one or two meetings and then raise rates another one or two times to make sure that a recent jump in energy prices does not create more widespread inflation problems.

In assessing the current state of the economy, the Fed's brief statement tracked the comments Bernanke had made to the Joint Economic Committee.

The statement said that while economic growth had been "quite strong so far this year," the central bank still expected growth would moderate to a more sustainable pace, "partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices."

The overall economy grew at a sizzling pace of 4.8 percent in the first three months of this year, the fastest spurt for the gross domestic product in 2 1/2 years. But private forecasters believe growth has slowed in the current quarter, reflecting in part rising mortgage rates, which have dampened home sales.

On inflation, the Fed said the surge in energy prices so far had had "only a modest effect on core inflation" with inflation expectations remaining contained.

The statement noted a unanimous vote for the quarter-point increase in the funds rate.



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بالفعل تم رفع معدل سعر الفائدة الى ربع نقطه لتصل بذلك الى 5% وهي الاعلى منذ خمس سنوات .
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يتوقع المحلليين ان الاجتماع القادم في 29-6-2006 م بعد سبع اسابيع من الان لن يتم رفع معدل سعر الفائدة
كما توقعوا ان تكون امامنا ارتفاع لمره او مرتين بواقع ربع نقطه خلال هذا العام 2006م .

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ترايدر

[MWAFFAQ]

هل نفهم من ذلك أن رفع معدل سعر الفائدة ذو علاقة عكسية مع أسواق الأسهم الأمريكية، إذا أرتفع معدل سعر الفائدة إنخفض السوق والعكس صحيح؟

شكراً أخي ترايدر

[ترايدر]

Updated: 26-May-06 08:49 ET


08:49 ET

The Fears Abate Further:
Stock futures jumped this morning on an as-expected economic report. That reflects the fact that excessive fears had crept into the market and are now being squeezed out.

The April core PCE was up 0.2%. That was in line with most forecasts, but after a 0.3% reading in March, and back-to-back core CPI gains of 0.3%, there were concerns that another 0.3% gain would spark inflation fears. The market was extremely sensitive to these releases the past few months and took a dive at times when the inflation reports were poor.

It isn't as if a 0.2% monthly reading on inflation is bullish. That translates into roughly a 2.4% annual rate. The April increase also pushed the year-over-year increase in the core PCE to 2.1% from 2.0% in March. That is above the Fed's forecast of 1 3/4% to 2% for all of 2006. It isn't a great number.

Yet, because it wasn't a worse number, stock futures have jumped. The same thing happened yesterday on mixed data in the GDP report. After the sharp sell-off, for the time being - no bad news is good news.

This confirms our view that the market outlook is neutral, and not bearish. The market had gotten overly pessimistic, just as it was overly optimistic in April. Stock prices have been reacting to sentiment and undergoing normal fluctuations that happen in every market. Every day, there were reports that the market was up/down due to commodities, economic releases, whatever. It was the type of noise that individual investors need to ignore.

In reality, the fundamentals haven't changed much at all over the past two months. The economy and earnings growth will slow in the second half of the year in response to rising interest rates. Inflation may firm, but it won't get out of control. The summer months could be difficult, but stocks should end higher on the year. -- Dick Green

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بدأت الاسواق تهدئ من مخاوفها من التضخم حيث قفزت اسعار الاسهم المستقبليه بشكل متوقع والذي يعكس الحقيقة
في ابريل كان PCE (مقياس التضخم) 0.2% كما هو متوقع من الكثير من المحلليين ولكن في مارس وصلت الى 0.3% مما اثار كثير من مخاوف التضخم وكانت الاسواق حساسة نتيجة هذا الرقم خلال الاشهر القليلة الماضية حيث ان النسبة التي تم قياسها في ابريل 0.2% تعتبر شرسه جدا حيث انها ترفع المعدل السنوي إلى 2.4 % حيث دفع هذا القراءة في مارس من 0.2% إلى 2.1% مما دعى المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي الاتجاه في رفع نسبة الفائدة لعام 2006م من
1.75% إلى 2% بزيادة ربع نقطة عن المتوقع ، حيث حدث نفس الشئ في البيانات المختلطة امس GPD مجمل الناتج القومي حيث قفزت الاسهم المستقبلية باعتبار ذلك اخبار جيده وليست سيئة .

كانت وجه نظر السوق محايدة وليست للانخفاض (بالنسة لمعدل سعر الفائدة) حيث اصبحت السوق متشائمة جدا عكس ماكانت عليه في ابريل من التفائل وهذا يحدث في جميع الاسواق حيث تتقلب اسعار الاسهم حسب تغير ارقام التقارير الاقتصادية

في الواقع الاساسيات لم يحدث فيها اي تغيير في الشهرين الماضيين بشكل كبير حيث ان( نمو المداخيل والاقتصاد سيتباطآن في الربع الثاني) من عام 2006م ردا على ارتفاع معدل سعر الفائدة ولازالت الاسواق تعاني من التضخم ولكنه لن يخرج عن السيطرة وقد تعاني الاسواق خلال هذا الصيف ولكنها ستغلق في نهاية العام على ارتفاع .
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ترايدر

[من نجد]

تحياتي ترايدر
من الربع الثالث من 2005 وارباح الشركات تتفوق على التوقعات ، بمعتى أننا مررنا بثلاث ارباع ونحن متماسكون ، اذا اتت ارباح الشركات للربع الثاني حسب لغتهم متأثرة قليلا بمعدلات الفائدة فهذا يعني تناغم واضح بين التوقعات والنمو ، ومزيدا من التأكيدات على قدرة الاقتصاديات على تحمل اسعار الطاقة والفائدة المتصاعدة ، وفي كل الأحوال(شيبان وول ستريت) يقولون السوق فوق منهم ورن بوفت والوعد 30 ديسمبر2006

[ترايدر]

Fed Brief About this page | Print version

In depth analysis of Federal Reserve Policy. Archive



Updated: 31-May-06 15:28 ET New in the Research Section: FOMC

Fed Minutes Inconclusive but Consistent with June Hike


The May FOMC minutes didn't offer much insight on the June 29 policy direction. They noted that "members were uncertain about how much, if any, further tightening would be needed after today's action". However, if inflation worsened -- as the back to back 0.3% gains in core inflation suggest -- some further policy firming could be required. With a full month of data ahead of the month-end decision the data-dependent conclusion is far from clear but sides with a June rate hike.

The Committee agreed to emphasize that "the extent and timing of any such firming will depend importantly on the evolution of the economic outlook as implied by incoming information." Members debated the appropriate characterization of inflation expectations in the statement. The apparent pickup core inflation and longer-term expectations, while worrisome, was relatively small. They remained within the range seen over the past couple of years, and the increase could well reverse before long. Accordingly, it appeared appropriate to characterize inflation expectations again as "contained."

The funds futures market clung to the idea that the Fed would respond to the recent inflation data with further policy firming. Obviously, an offset in the core inflation data released on June 14 carries the potential to reverse the policy expectations. Near the close the July contract priced in 74% probability for a quarter percent hike to a 5.25% policy rate at month end. The implied rates peak at November's 5.32% as the market begins to price in the potential for another hike after June 29.


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هناك احتمال ضعيف لرفع نسبة الفائدة لاجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي في اجتماعة القادم في 29-6-2006م الا في حالة واحده ان تسفر التقارير الاقتصادية عن نسبة في التضخم اكثر من 0.3% .
وقد نرى ارتفاع في معدل سعر الفائدة ولكن بعد الاجتماع القادم .


=================
يجب استغلال ارتفاع الاسواق وعدم النظر الى الا في التقارير الرسمية التي تصدر من اصحاب قرار الاقتصاد الامريكي فهي المحرك الوحيد لاتجاه الاسواق .
===============

اهلين من نجد
بصراحه وارن بوفت عقليه استثمارية تستحق كل الاحترام
وانت تستحق كل التقدير
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ترايدر

[ترايدر]

Fed Chairman Still Worried About Inflation
Monday June 5, 2:46 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Fed Chairman Still Worried About Inflation, Even Though Economic Growth Is Moderating


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Even though the once barreling U.S. economy is now slowing down, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Monday called recent increases in inflation unwelcome and pledged to make sure surging energy prices don't make things worse.
ADVERTISEMENT


In deciding the Federal Reserve's next rate move in late June, Bernanke said the inflation outlook "will receive particular scrutiny." Fed policy-makers "will be vigilant" to ensure that the recent pattern of higher readings in core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, "is not sustained," he said in remarks prepared for an international monetary conference here.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrials slid 160 points as Bernanke's fresh warnings on inflation rattled investors.

Bernanke offered his most extensive assessment of current economic conditions and the challenges facing Fed policy-makers.

"With the economy now evidently in a period of transition, monetary policy must be conducted with great care and with close attention to the evolution of the economic outlook," Bernanke said. He stressed anew that future rate decisions will rely heavily on what economic barometers say about inflation and business activity.

So far this year, inflation at the consumer level has been elevated in large part by rising energy prices, Bernanke said.

As measured by the Consumer Price Index, "core" inflation -- which excludes food and energy prices -- rose at an annual rate of 3.2 percent over the last three months and 2.8 percent over the past six months. "These are unwelcome developments," he said.

Fed policy-makers pay close attention to "core" inflation figures to get a better sense of how prices of lots of other goods and services are behaving. As these core measures have marched higher, economists have worried that surging energy prices are feeding into higher price tags for more and more items.

Oil prices, which hit a record high of more than $75 a barrel, are hovering around $73 a barrel. Gasoline prices have climbed, topping $3 a gallon in some areas.

To combat inflation, Fed policy-makers have boosted interest rates 16 times since June 2004. The Fed, which meets next on 28-29, has said that coming rate decisions will rely heavily on how barometers on economic activity and inflation look.

Some economists believe the Fed will raise rates again at that time to blunt inflation. Others, however, think the Fed will leave rates alone, taking a pause in its two-year rate-raising campaign to assess economic conditions.

The economy, which grew at a brisk 5.3 percent pace in the opening quarter of this year, is slowing to a more moderate pace, Bernanke said. Higher energy prices are playing a role by making some consumers more cautious in their spending. Another factor is a cooling housing market, he said.

"The anticipated moderation of economic growth seems now to be under way," he declared.

Private economists believe economic growth in the April-to-June quarter will probably clock in around a 2.5 percent pace or slightly better.

Although consumers, who account for two-thirds of all economic activity, are showing signs of moderating their buying appetite, businesses on the other hand are spending and investing at a robust clip, Bernanke noted.

He also pointed out that the slower job creation seen in recent months and an edging up in filings for unemployment benefits also are "consistent with the softening in the pace of overall economic activity that seems to be under way."

Employers added just 75,000 jobs in May, the fewest in seven months. Job gains for March and April turned out to be lower than previously thought.

===============

رئيس المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي بن برنانكي مازال قلق بشأن التصخم بالرغم من النمو المعتدل للاقتصاد الامريكي كما اشار بانه في حالة استمرار التضخم الى حين الاجتماع القادم في واخر شهر June فانه من المرجح ان يتم رفع معدل سعر الفائدة خلال هذا .
هناك قلق بشأن اسعار الطاقة بالاضافة الى الارقام الاقتصادية في ظل تزايد حجم التضخم التي يعاني منها الاقتصاد الامريكي .
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ترايدر

[ترايدر]

Fed Chairman Still Worried About Inflation
Monday June 5, 2:46 pm ET By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Fed Chairman Still Worried About Inflation, Even Though Economic Growth Is Moderating


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Even though the once barreling U.S. economy is now slowing down, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Monday called recent increases in inflation unwelcome and pledged to make sure surging energy prices don't make things worse.
ADVERTISEMENT


In deciding the Federal Reserve's next rate move in late June, Bernanke said the inflation outlook "will receive particular scrutiny." Fed policy-makers "will be vigilant" to ensure that the recent pattern of higher readings in core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, "is not sustained," he said in remarks prepared for an international monetary conference here.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrials slid 160 points as Bernanke's fresh warnings on inflation rattled investors.

Bernanke offered his most extensive assessment of current economic conditions and the challenges facing Fed policy-makers.

"With the economy now evidently in a period of transition, monetary policy must be conducted with great care and with close attention to the evolution of the economic outlook," Bernanke said. He stressed anew that future rate decisions will rely heavily on what economic barometers say about inflation and business activity.

So far this year, inflation at the consumer level has been elevated in large part by rising energy prices, Bernanke said.

As measured by the Consumer Price Index, "core" inflation -- which excludes food and energy prices -- rose at an annual rate of 3.2 percent over the last three months and 2.8 percent over the past six months. "These are unwelcome developments," he said.

Fed policy-makers pay close attention to "core" inflation figures to get a better sense of how prices of lots of other goods and services are behaving. As these core measures have marched higher, economists have worried that surging energy prices are feeding into higher price tags for more and more items.

Oil prices, which hit a record high of more than $75 a barrel, are hovering around $73 a barrel. Gasoline prices have climbed, topping $3 a gallon in some areas.

To combat inflation, Fed policy-makers have boosted interest rates 16 times since June 2004. The Fed, which meets next on 28-29, has said that coming rate decisions will rely heavily on how barometers on economic activity and inflation look.

Some economists believe the Fed will raise rates again at that time to blunt inflation. Others, however, think the Fed will leave rates alone, taking a pause in its two-year rate-raising campaign to assess economic conditions.

The economy, which grew at a brisk 5.3 percent pace in the opening quarter of this year, is slowing to a more moderate pace, Bernanke said. Higher energy prices are playing a role by making some consumers more cautious in their spending. Another factor is a cooling housing market, he said.

"The anticipated moderation of economic growth seems now to be under way," he declared.

Private economists believe economic growth in the April-to-June quarter will probably clock in around a 2.5 percent pace or slightly better.

Although consumers, who account for two-thirds of all economic activity, are showing signs of moderating their buying appetite, businesses on the other hand are spending and investing at a robust clip, Bernanke noted.

He also pointed out that the slower job creation seen in recent months and an edging up in filings for unemployment benefits also are "consistent with the softening in the pace of overall economic activity that seems to be under way."

Employers added just 75,000 jobs in May, the fewest in seven months. Job gains for March and April turned out to be lower than previously thought.

===============

رئيس المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي بن برنانكي مازال قلق بشأن التصخم بالرغم من النمو المعتدل للاقتصاد الامريكي كما اشار بانه في حالة استمرار التضخم الى حين الاجتماع القادم في واخر شهر June فانه من المرجح ان يتم رفع معدل سعر الفائدة خلال هذا الاجتماع .
هناك قلق بشأن اسعار الطاقة بالاضافة الى الارقام الاقتصادية في ظل تزايد حجم التضخم التي يعاني منها الاقتصاد الامريكي .
============

ترايدر

[هامور البلاد]

مشرفنا ترايدر خلال ثلاث سنوات كم مره رفعت الفائده على الدولار

أو بالأصح كم كانت في عام 2001 إلى الآن

[هامور البلاد]

ما صار لهم شهر رافعين الفائده

[ترايدر]

اهلين اخي الكريم هامور البلاد

من عام 2001الى الان منتصف عام 2006م ارتفعت 16 مره بواقع ربع نقطه

وكانت في عام 2001
1%


طبعاً كل شئ وارد في حالة قياس التضخم وفق المعايير الخاصة بالتقارير الاقتصادية ولكن المحلليين يستبعدون ان يكون هناك رفع لمعدل سعر الفائدة في الاجتماع القادم .
============
ترايدر

[هامور البلاد]

في 3 يناير 2001 خفض سعر الفائدة على الدولار بمقدار 0.5% ليصبح 6%
أيااام رئيس البنك الفيدرالي " آلان جرينسبان"

مما يعني أنه كان 6% في الشهر الأول من السنه هل يعني انه قام بتخفيض النسبه من 6% إلى 1%
خلال أشهر
أرجو التوضيح وشكراً لك مره أخرى

[ترايدر]

AP
Fed Boosts Key Interest Rate for 15th Time
Tuesday March 28, 3:10 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Fed Boosts Key Interest Rate to Highest in Five Years; Officials Leave Door Open for More Hikes


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve on Tuesday boosted a key interest rate to the highest level in five years as new Chairman Ben Bernanke followed the Alan Greenspan inflation-fighting formula.
The action, the 15th consecutive quarter-point move, left the federal funds rate at 4.75 percent, its highest level since April 2001.
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Fed officials, who were holding their first interest rate meeting under Bernanke, left the door open for further rate increases although private economists believe only one or two more rate hikes are likely.

The quarter-point rate hike had been widely expected. Bernanke has emphasized since being chosen by President Bush that he planned to continue Greenspan's approach toward setting interest rates. That approach was characterized by baby steps aimed at giving markets and investors plenty of time to adjust.

"Mr. Bernanke has chosen incrementalism over radical change in his first meeting," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, a consulting firm.

"There is no fundamental change from Mr. Greenspan," said David Jones, chief economist at DMJ Advisors, another firm.

Jones said the only small difference was in an expanded paragraph that went into greater detail about the Fed's views on how the economy is performing.

The Fed said economic growth had "rebounded strongly" and the run-up in the price of energy and other commodities had had only a "modest effect on core inflation."

Jones predicted the Fed would raise rates one more time to 5 percent and then stop.

On Wall Street, investors pushed stocks lower following the Fed announcement, expressing disappointment that the central bank did not send a stronger signal that the rate hikes would be ending soon.

The Fed's latest move will mean higher interest rates for both consumers and businesses. KeyCorp was the first bank to announce it was raising its prime lending rate by a similar quarter-point to 7.75 percent. The prime is the benchmark for millions of business and consumer loans.

In its statement, the Fed sounded at an upbeat note about the current business climate, saying "economic growth has rebounded strongly in the current quarter but appears likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace."

The statement retained language used last time that "some further policy firming may be needed." That was seen by financial markets as a signal that further rate hikes could occur.

When the central bank began tightening credit conditions in June 2004, the prime rate stood at 4 percent and so did the federal funds rate, both the lowest levels since the late 1950s when Dwight D. Eisenhower was president.

Those unusually low levels were reached as the central bank beginning in 2001 worked to protect the economy from the blows dealt by a bursting stock market bubble, the 2001 recession, terrorist attacks and a prolonged period of job losses even after the economy began to recover in November of that year.

The Fed's goal has been to reach a point where interest rates are neither stimulating nor depressing economic growth.

Many analysts believe the Fed is very close to that level but may feel the need to push the funds rate up one more time to 5 percent from moving to the sidelines for the rest of the year.

However, other analysts who are more worried about inflation pressures say the Fed may feel the need to boost rates not only at the next meeting on May 10 but also at perhaps two more meetings after that, leaving the funds rate at 5.5 percent.

Greenspan retired after 18 1/2 years at the Fed. Bernanke was nominated by Bush to succeed him. Bernanke had been an economics professor at Princeton specializing in monetary policy before serving as a Fed board member from 2002 to 2003 when Bush tapped him to be chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.



=================
تم رفع معدل سعر الفائدة بواقع ربع نقطه لتصل الى 4.75 % ويعتبر الارتفاع الخامس عشر منذ عام 2001م
كما المح رئيس المصرف الفدرالي ان قد تكون امامنا زياده لمره او مرتين بواقع ربع نقطه وانه ماضي في سياسه جرينسبان الرئيس السابق للمصرف الفدرالي للحد من التضخم كما ان ثقه الرئيس بوش فيه تقتضي الاسراع في حل المشاكل الاقتصادية التي قد تعترض الاقتصاد الامريكي الا ان المفيد في هذا الاجتماع انه صرح بان الاقتصاد الامريكي عاد الى حالة الطبيعية وبقوه رغم تأثير اسعار الطاقة والسلع التي اثرت بشكل بسيط على التضخم .
كما المح ان قد تصل معدل سعر الفائدة الى 5 % وقد تتوقف مما اثر على اداء المستثمرين بشكل عام كونه لم يعطي اشارة قويه الى توقف سعر الفائدة بشكل نهائي كما انه ركز الى ان الفقاعة التي صاحبت احداث الحادي عشر من سبتمر من عام 2001م لن تكرر حفاظا على نمو الاقتصاد الامريكي بشكل اسرع خلال هذا الربع كونه عاد بقوه الى حالته الطبيعه ويتوقع ان يتسارع بشكل اكبر خلال هذا الربع مع الحد على التضخم بشكل متوازن .
كما توقع محللون ان تكون الزيادة القادمه بربع نقطه في 10 مايو القادم وقد تصل في نهاية العام الى 5.5% .
ويشعر بعض المحلليين بالقلق ازاء ضغوط التضخم .
=========

بقيه التقرير عباره عن سيرته الذاتيه بشكل مختصر متخصص في السياسة النقديه عمل في لجنة المصرف الفدرالي من عام 2002-2003 وبعدها تم تعيينه كبير الاقتصاديين في البيت الابيض من قبل بوش وبعد احالة جرينسبان الى التقاعد تم تعيينه خلفه عنه .
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ترايدر

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اهلين اخي الكريم هامور البلاد

في ثاني رد في الموضوع الاقتباس بعاليه .
تقرير من New - Yahoo! Finance
نص وتاريخ ووقت التاريخ كما هو بعاليه كان معدل سعر الفائدة 4.5% وفي حالة رفع ربع نقطه ستصل الى 4.75% وهو الارتفاع الخامس عشر على التوالي من شهر ابريل عام 2001م حسب التقرير بعاليه (اللون الاحمر) .
وفي 10ماي ارتفع معدل سعر الفائدة بواقع ربع نقطه لتصل الى 5% ويعتبر الارتفاع السادس عشر على التوالي حسب التقرير المرفق مع الشارت بعاليه .

======

هذا تقرير من بريفنق يذكر بما نصه انه في حالة ارتفاع معدل سعر الفائدة في الاجتماع القادم في 28-29/6/2006م يعتبر السابع عشر على التوالي (اللون الاحمر).
وجميع التقارير التي يعتمد عليها ترايدر هي اما من بريفنق او New - Yahoo! Finance باعتبارهما افضل مصادر الاخبار عن السوق الامريكي على الاطلاق .

نص التقرير
=============




Updated: 10-May-06 16:56 ET

Fed's Flexibility for June Policy Direction

The Fed's policy making committee -- the FOMC -- came through with the 25 bp hike in the overnight policy rate expected. The federal funds policy rate is now targeted at 5% as the discount rate has been set higher at 6%.

The wording of the policy statement left the door wide open for the FOMC to either pull the policy trigger for a 17th consecutive time at the June 28-29 FOMC meeting or pause to assess the effects on the economy. Given the strength of the economy Briefing.com assumes that rate hike(s) would return after a pause.
The policy statement noted Fed expectations for growth to moderate given the cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices. However, the Fed remains keenly aware of the inflation risks. The outlook stated 'that some further policy firming may yet be needed to address inflation risks but emphasizes that the extent and timing of any such firming will depend importantly on the evolution of the economic outlook as implied by incoming information'.

The translation is simply that the policy makers don't have a clear pre-disposition for the meeting 7 weeks away and will depend on the economic releases in making that June 29 policy decision. The minutes from the meeting released May 31 may provide the substance of any debate among the FOMC members just as the minutes from the March meeting noted that 'most members thought that the end of the tightening process was likely to be near as some expressed concerns about the dangers of tightening too much...'

Fed Chairman Bernanke has already been clear that forward policy direction is dependent on the economic data as a pause in the tightening may only interrupt the rate hikes rather than end them.

Historically, Fed tightening cycles have ended when the policy rate reached levels of 6% or higher which stalled the economy. Given the current conditions of contained core inflation, the Fed doesn't want to make the mistake of going too far. From here the policy outlook depends chiefly on core inflation growth and the extent of resource utilization, energy and commodity prices which help drive inflation

====================

اخي الكريم

المرفق بعاليه نص تقارير بالساعة واليوم والشهر والسنه .

وعملية ارتفاع وانخفاض معدل سعر الفائدة شئ وارد حسب سياسية المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي ونظرته تجاه التضخم المصاحب للاقتصاد الامريكي .
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ترايدر
.

[هامور البلاد]

لا أعلم عن موضوع سعر الفائده شيء ولكن بالصدفه قرأت مقال لأحد الإقتصاديين العرب وبين ذلك

قد تكون مصادرك أدق بحكم خبرتك ماشاء الله

شكراً لك مره أخرى

[albrady]

منذ اسابيع وبعد ان وصل الذهب الي اعلي مستوياته في التاريخ الي 730 دولار للاونصة ومنذ اسابيع بعد رفع اخر فائدة بربع نقطة قال الامركان بانهم لن يرفعوا الفائدة لانهم يعتقدون بان التضخم في مستويات منخفضة,لذلك لاحظنا كل من العملات تطير الي مستويات عالية والداو جونز والناسدك الي مستويات لاباس بها. ثم بعد ذلك رجع الامركان وقالوا لا هناك تضخم وبداؤ يطبلوا بارفاع الفائدة اعلي من الربع نقطة ( ربما النصف نقطة) للتحكم بالتضخم والبطالة, وذلك بعد ان صرفوا الذهب وعقود البترول.

ما اعتقد به هوا ان الامركان هذه المرة قد يفاجوئنا بعدم رفع الفائدة ........لماذا؟

بعد ان طبلوا للذهب وقالوا ان الذهب سيصل ال1000 او اكثر قاموا بتصريفه وهم الذين جمعوه ابان حربهم علي العراق في فترة 2003 -2004 ثم عندما بداو بتصريفه ادخلوا العالم في وهم الحرب علي ايران و وضحوا بان العجز في الميزانية الامريكية لازال مرتفع . ما افترض حدوثه في اجتماع الامريكان في شهر ستة هوا اظهار بان العجز قد تحول الي فائض وفائض عظيم علي اساس المكاسب العظيمة من وراء تصريف في المعادن والبترول. هذه فرضية قد تصيب او تخطىء لذا ارجوا قراتها وذلك للفائدة . اخوكم البرادي

[ترايدر]

Fed Brief



Updated: 14-Jun-06 10:51 ET



Hawkish Fed Stance, Hike on June 29


The policy tone from the Fed has growth significantly more hawkish since the release of the May policy statement seeming to guarantee another 25 bp hike in the policy rate to 5.25% on June 29. Three consecutive 0.3% gains in core CPI, the return of the 4 year high of 2.4% yoy for core CPI inflation and the very hawkish tone coming from all sources within the Fed seem to seal the lid on the month-end policy decision.

The Fed speak seems intended to confirm to the market the Fed's intent to calm inflation pressures rather than be overly cautious regarding the pace of the economic expansion. That certainly doesn't mean the Fed is willing to drive the economy in to recession waiting for the lagging inflation measures to cool. The hawkish tone is simply intended to help hold down inflation expectations as heightened fear builds inflationary potential and increases consumer and business caution.

The danger zone for policy rates arrives as nominal rates near 6% or real (inflation-adjusted) rates approach 4%. Over the last decade those levels have been the choking point for the economy. A June 29 hike to a 5.25% policy rate leaves a real policy rate just above 3% -- still safe but in a warning zone.




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هناك اشاره من مقياس التضخم (PCE) بان الاقتصاد الامريكي لايزال يعاني من التضخم خاصة بعد زيادة معدل سعر الفائدة الاخير الذي كانت في شهر ماي حيث يشير مقياس التضخم الى الرقم 0.3% الذي يعتبر الاكبر منذ اربع سنوات باعتباره اعلى من الرقم 2.4% لذا قد نشهد ارتفاع لمعدل سعر الفائدة في الاجتماع القادم 29-6-2006م لتصل الى 5.25% وفي حالة استمرار مقياس التضخم (PCE) بالارتفاع فقد نصل الى ارتفاع لمعدل سعر الفائدة بالقرب من 6% ويعتبر رقم خطر لخنق الاقتصاد الامريكي .

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Fed Seems Set to Raise Rates Again Today
Thursday June 29, 8:07 am ET


By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Fed Seems Set to Raise Rates Again Today With Quarter-Point Hike Expected


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve is wrapping up a two-day meeting today, and analysts say there is little doubt the central bank will raise rates for the 17th consecutive time.
While some feared the Fed might boost rates by a half-point, most economists were looking for another quarter-point increase. That would push the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, to 5.25 percent, the highest level in more than five years.

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That increase would also mean a rise in the borrowing costs for millions of Americans, with banks' prime lending rate rising by a similar quarter-point to 8.25 percent, also the highest level in more than five years.

The Fed has been on a steady campaign to raise rates to fight inflation since its first increase in June 2004 when the funds rate was at a 46-year low of 1 percent.

The Fed has been remarkably consistent over the past two years in its actions on interest rates, but many analysts believe it has grown erratic in its ability to explain those actions.

Many are putting the blame on new Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who has sent markets on a rollercoaster ride in recent weeks with what appeared to be conflicting statements over the future course of rates.

Bernanke, a former Princeton economics professor and chief economist for the Bush White House, took over from Fed legend Alan Greenspan on Feb. 1. His first five months on the job have seen some rocky times.

Bernanke sent markets soaring after an April 27 appearance before Congress' Joint Economic Committee when he suggested the Fed might take a pause in its long rate-hike campaign.

Worried that Wall Street might perceive him as too dovish in fighting inflation, Bernanke sought to set the record straight by giving a tough anti-inflation speech on June 5. That contributed to a 199-point plunge in the Dow Jones industrial average as investors feared there could be a number of rate hikes to come.

Economists said Bernanke, in an effort to be more open about the Fed's thinking, is actually increasing confusion.

"He's talking way too much and he says one thing one day and then says something entirely different the next day," said Martin Regalia, chief economist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and a former Fed economist. "This is not increasing transparency. It is increasing confusion."

Some economists said it is unfair to make Bernanke take all of the blame. Part of the problem, they contend, is that after 18 years of learning to decipher Greenspan's almost impenetrable prose, markets are having trouble getting used to Bernanke's more straightforward speaking style.

"Greenspan was rather cryptic. Bernanke is much more open and the result is that the markets are over-interpreting everything he says," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York.

Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor, said, "With Greenspan, who was quite obscure, the deal was to look at his speeches with a magnifying glass until you found the one word that told you what he was signaling. Bernanke is not like that. He says what he means."

Many analysts believe that Fed officials will raise rates by a quarter-point this week and signal that they are still concerned about inflation, which would leave the door open for another increase at the Aug. 8 meeting.

But analysts are split on whether there will be a rate increase in August, saying it will depend on whether the economy has slowed enough by then to ease the Fed's inflation concerns.

With housing and consumer spending both cooling, many analysts believe the slowdown will be unmistakable at that point, and that the Fed may well call a halt to the rate boosts.

But analysts said they don't expect the Fed at this week's meeting to give a strong signal one way or the other on their future actions.

"We are at a turning point right now and not even the Fed can be sure how much more needs to be done," said David Jones, head of DMJ Advisors, a Denver-based consulting firm

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في ظهرهذا اليوم الموافق 29-6-2006م سيكون اجتماع للمصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي وكان هناك بعض الشكوك لبعض المحلليين بان تكون هناك زيادة ربع نقطة وهي الاعلى منذ خمس سنوات والسابعة عشر على التوالي خلال هذا الاجتماع لتصل بذلك الى 5.25% كما ذهب البعض الى ابعد من ذلك حيث خيشي بعض المحلليين ان تكون هناك زيادة نصف نقطة خلال هذا الاجتماع الامر الذي سيزيد من نسبة تكاليف الاقتراض لملايين الامريكان وفي حالة رفع معدل سعر الفائدة خلال هذا الاجتماع فهي ضمن سياسة المصرف الاحتياطي الفدارلي لمحاربة التضخم التي بدأت في يوليو من عام 2004م والتي كانت في ادنى مستوياتها منذ 46 سنه حيث كانت 1% .
كما عبر بعض المحليين والاقتصاديين عن قلقة بان تكون هناك ارتفاعات مفاجأة لمعدل سعر الفائدة خلال الاشهر القادمة .

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سيتم تزويدكم بنتائج الاجتماع في حينه
ترايدر

[ترايدر]

29-Jun-06
14:16 BONDX Fed raises funds rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% as expected

كانت نتائج الاجتماع ارتفاع معدل سعر الفائدة ربع نقطة لتصل بذلك الى 5.25% .

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[axe]

السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته
احببت المشاركه باضافة التشارت لمؤشر نازداك بعد اعلان الخبر وافضل طريقه لاستغلاله :


http://www.tdwl.net/vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=21732&stc=1&d=1151623819

تشارت اخر 7 ايام لنازداك ويبين الارتفاع العمودي وقت اعلان تقرير رفع الفائده "عند السهم الازرق" .
وارتداده من عند اخر مقاومه قبل 6 ايام في بدايه التشارت عند قرائه 2152 تقريبا.

http://www.tdwl.net/vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=21733&stc=1&d=1151623819

تشارت نازداك بتحديث كل دقيقتين يوضح خطوط ارتداد فيبوناتشي المحسوبه من اخر قمه وقاع، المؤشر ارتد بنسبه 50% بالضبط عند 2140
ثم عاود الارتفاع، الشراء يبداء "فوق السهم الازرق" بعد اول شمعه يغلق اسفلها فوق الاعلى لادنى شمعه تسبقها وهي التي كانت هنا تمثل نقطه الارتداد، والبيع اولا نصف الكميه تحت اخر مقاومه "اول سهم احمر" والنصف الثاني اذا تم الاختراق يكون البيع قبل الوصول لنفس طول الموجه المرتده" ثاني سهم احمر" اي تقريباً قبل الوصول الى 10 نقاط اعلى. بالنسبه لوقف الخساره يكون تحت مستوى 61 لفيبوناتشي "2137"
ويتم رفعه بعد اول 5 نقاط ارتفاع الى سعر الشراء ثم عند بلوغ الهدف الاول الى فوق الشراء بخمس نقاط بحيث يتم الحفاظ على المكاسب.
هذه المفاهيم تنطبق على غالبيه الاسهم التي تحركت بقوه مع المؤشر.


http://www.tdwl.net/vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=21734&stc=1&d=1151623819

واخيراً، للتأكد من ان الارتفاع كان حقيقيا يجب ان يكون مصحوباً بهبوط في الدولار مقابل باقي العملات، وهذا ما يوضحه تشارت اليورو مقابل الدولار حيث ارتفع اليورو بشكل قوي وقت الاعلان.


تمنياتي للجميع بالتوفيق.

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Fed Brief

In depth analysis of Federal Reserve Policy.



Updated: 29-Jun-06 16:06 ET

New in the Research Section: FOMC

June Hike, July 19 Testimony Provides Forward View


The Fed stepped in with the anticipated quarter percent hike on Thursday to lift the funds policy rate to 5.25% and the discount rate to 6.25%. Quarter percent rate hikes have been seen at every FOMC meeting since June 2004 as today's was the 17th consecutive increase from the 1% 45 year low.

The question ahead is when this long sting of rate hikes will end. While the text of the policy statement did not include the comment seen in the May statement that 'further policy firming may be needed', the open-ended statement that policy direction will depend on the data again allows the Fed to tighten or pause at the coming meeting(s).

The statement noted that economic growth is moderating as core inflation has been elevated in recent months. The implied inflation outlook included risks. While productivity gains have held down unit labor costs as inflation expectations remain contained, high levels of resource use and the prices of energy and other commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures.

Recent data have heightened the inflation and policy concern. Three consecutive 0.3% gains in core CPI left the return of the 2.4% four year high. The slightly tamer pace of core PCE inflation -- which the Fed prefers to CPI -- is released Friday (June 30) and may help to cool the market's inflation concerns if it comes in at the 2.1% Briefing.com expects.

The Fed's predicament is that the market is watching the lagging indicator of core inflation as the Fed sets policy which may not be reflected in inflation for another 3 quarters or so. The July 19 semi-annual testimony on monetary policy allows Chairman Bernanke to remind the markets of policy lags and thereby allow a pause in the tightening to better access the economic and inflation effects to date. Despite the Fed Chair's call for increased transparency a little cover is well timed during periods of economic transition

Allowing for a pause becomes more important as the funds policy rate nears the 6%+ economic 'choking point' seen over the last decade. The mid 90s soft-landing was the work of a 6% policy rate as the 6.5% peak reached in mid 2000 brought the 2001 recession. The June 29 hike to a 5.25% policy rate leaves a real (inflation adjusted) policy rate just above 3% -- still safe but approaching the 4% choking point of the mid 90s.

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في البدايه لن نقرأ حيثيات القرار فـ زيادة معدل سعر الفائدة ربع نقطة كانت امر غير مستغرب لتصل الى 5.25% ولكن المهم في قرار رئيس المصرف الفدرالي يتخلص في الاتي:
1. قلل من مخاوفه من التضخم نتيجية ارتفاع معدل سعر الفائدة السابعة عشر على التوالي والتي كان لها الاكثر الكبير في ابعاد الاسواق الامريكية عن شبح الكساد .
2. لم يلمح الى اي زيادة في الاجتماع القادم الامر الذي يعطي مزيداً من الوقت لقياس التضخم من خلال التقارير الاقتصادية التي ستصدر لاحقاً والتركيز على مقياس (PCE) خلال الايام القادمة ولم يستبعد اي ارتفاع لمعدل سعر الفائدة خلال هذا العام متى مادعت الحاجة لذلك لمعالجة التضخم ولمنع الكساد للاقتصاد الامريكي .
جاءات ردت فعل السوق اثناء صدور القرار ايجابية حيث ارتفعت اهم المؤشرات الرئيسية بشكل ايجابي (حسب المرفق )ولكن يجب الحذر من الايام والاسبوع القادم خاصة وان الاسواق الامريكية ستغلق يوم الثلاثاء 4-7-2006م بمناسبة يوم الاستقلال وفي يوم الاثنين الموافق 3-7-2006م سيكون التداول نصف يوم فقط اي ستغلق الاسواق في تمام الساعة الواحدة ظهراً بتوقيت نيويورك اي في تمام الساعة الثامنة مساءاً بتوقيت السعودية .

لازالت الثقة موجودة في الاقتصاد الامريكي للقضاء على التضخم وان الكساد لن يصاحب الاقتصاد الامريكي( بمشيئة الله تعالى) في ظل السياسة التي يتخذها المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي .

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Updated: 30-Jun-06 17:14 ET

Calmer Fed Amid Slowing Economy

While last week's FOMC meeting left a 17th consecutive rise in the policy rate to 5.25%, the tone of the statement was less hawkish than feared to bring some relief to the markets. Again the Fed stated that the extent and timing of any added policy tightening will depend on the incoming data and the outlook for growth and inflation. But gone was the May reference that 'further policy firming may be needed'.

Market expectations as seen through funds futures pricing currently sees another policy hike to 5.5% in August but at a current probability of 60% leaves plenty of room for changing opinion given Bernanke's July 19 testimony on monetary policy, a closer look at the policy discussion in the July 20 release of the FOMC minutes and all the economic reports due over the next six weeks

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صرح المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي بعد اجتماعة الاخير والذي رفع معدل سعر الفائدة السابع عشرة على التوالي الى ان وصلت الى 5.25% بان اي زيادة محتملة ستعتمد على التقارير الصادرة حيث قد تصل في اجتماع August القادم الى 5.5% وهذا يرجع الى حسب نتائج التقارير الصادرة خلال الستة اسابيع القادمة .

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AP
Dow Shoots Up After Bernanke Comments
Wednesday July 19, 10:27 am ET
By Ellen Simon, AP Business Writer
Dow Industrials Jump 100 on Comments by Fed Chief Bernanke That Inflation Remains Contained


NEW YORK (AP) -- Stock prices rallied Wednesday on remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that economic moderation "now seems to be under way" and that inflation remains contained. The Dow Jones industrial average shot up more than 100 points.
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In morning trading, the Dow rose 108.70, or 1.01 percent, to 10,907.93. Broader stock indicators also gained sharply. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 15.27, up 1.23 percent, to 1,252.13, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 24.29, or 1.19 percent, to 2,067.51.

Investors expected Bernanke to give more signals of an end to the Fed's streak of interest rate hikes as he continued testimony before Congress during the trading session.

Two government reports indicated that the economy is slowing. The Labor Department said the Consumer Price Index rose by just 0.2 percent in June, the smallest increase in four months, but core inflation, which excludes energy and food, rose by 0.3 percent in June, higher than the 0.2 percent Wall Street expected. That increase left core inflation rising for the past three months at an annual rate of 3.6 percent, far above the Federal Reserve comfort zone of 2 percent or less.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said construction of new homes fell by 5.3 percent in June, another sign that the once-booming housing market is slowing.

Strong earnings from International Business Machines Corp. and two of the nation's largest banks also helped stocks.

In morning trading, the Dow rose 108.70, or 1.01 percent, to 10,907.93.

Broader stock indicators also gained sharply. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 15.27, up 1.23 percent, to 1,252.13, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 24.29, or 1.19 percent, to 2,067.51.

Advancing issues led decliners by more than 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Bonds were down put recovering some lost ground on Bernanke's comments. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 5.16 percent, up from 5.14 percent Tuesday. The U.S. dollar was lower against other major currencies. Gold prices were higher.

Despite continued violence between Israel and Lebanon, crude oil futures fell. A barrel of light crude was quoted at $73.35, down 19 cents, in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In company news, IBM rose $1.99 to $76.25 after it reported second-quarter earnings of $2.02 billion, or $1.30 per share, on revenue of $21.9 billion. Its earnings beat analysts estimates.

Bank of America Corp., rose 65 cents to $49.09 after the company, the second-largest U.S. bank, said its acquisition of credit-card company MBNA Corp. helped lift second-quarter profit above Wall Street projections.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., rose $1.55, or 3.8 percent, to $42.26 after the nation's third-largest bank said its profit grew strongly in the second quarter. Net income was above analysts' projections.

Yahoo Inc. fell $6.12, or 19 percent, to $26.12 after its second-quarter profit declined. Last year's quarter was skewed by Yahoo's sale of its remaining stake in rival Google Inc., while this year's reflected new rules for accounting for stock options. Still, a delay in Yahoo's new advertising platform and slower growth than Google put off investors.

UnitedHealth Group Inc., rose $2.26, or 4.7 percent, to $50.66, after the company, the nation's second-largest health insurer, said its second quarter profits rose 26.5 percent. The company benefited from the acquisition of PacifiCare Health Systems and growth across its other businesses. It also raised its guidance for the rest of 2006 and issued bullish 2007 guidance.

Volume on the New York Stock Exchange was 178.62 million, up from 171.25 million the previous session.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 16.27, or 2.39 percent, to 697.91.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 0.44 percent. Bernanke's remarks sent European stocks up sharply. In afternoon trading, Britain's FTSE 100 was up 0.81 percent, Germany's DAX index was up 1.60 percent, and France's CAC-40 was up 1.36 percent.

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جميع أسهم مؤشر داو جونز الثلاثين سجلت الارتفاع والمؤشر نفسه ارتفع بأرقام ثلاثية بواقع 120 نقطة وارتفع ناسداك بواقع 25 نقطة وأس أند بي 500 بواقع 18 نقطة أي أن وول ستريت قد قفزت عالياً من الفرح وهذا الفرح جاء بعد تصريحات السيد بن برنانك أمام الكونجرس الأمريكي والتي أكد فيها أنه من المحتمل أن يتباطأ نمو الاقتصاد وهو الأمر الذي سيقلل من ضغوط التضخم وهذه الجملة فسرتها السوق على أن البنك المركزي قد فتح الباب على مصراعيه لإيقاف رفع معدل الفائدة في اجتماعه القادم في شهر أغسطس ولكن هناك أمراً أخر في تصريحات بن برنانك جديد ظهر اليوم وهو أن الرجل أصبح يفضل الغموض فتصريحاته يمكن فهمها على أنها تصريحات متشددة وفي نفس الوقت يمكن فهمها على أنها تصريحات مسالمة فرئيس البنك المركزي قد أكد أن ضغوط التضخم لا تزال موجودة وإن البنك المركزي يشعر بالقلق من ارتفاع الأسعار وهو ما كان متوقعاً من بن برنانك الذي أراد أن يمنح المسئولين داخل البنك ويمنح نفسه شخصياً فرصة لتحديد السياسية النقدية على ضوء البيانات الاقتصادية القادمة.
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ومن ناحية أخرى فقد فقد الدولار الكثير من مكاسبه بعد تصريحات بن برنانك حيث تراجع أمام الين الياباني إلى 116.92 ين ياباني مقابل 117.83 ين ياباني قبل تصريحات بن برنانك مباشرة كما تراجع أيضا أمام اليورو الأوروبي الذي بيع مقابل 1.2571 دولار مقابل 1.2473 دولار قبل التصريحات .

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وول ستريت كانت تنتظر الجديد من بن برنانك والرجل لم يخزلها فقد ركز في تصريحاته اليوم على المستقبل وهو أمراً رائع بعد أن كانت جميع تصريحاته الماضية تركز على الماضي والوضع الحالي وهذا الأمر الجديد دفع وول ستريت إلى الانطلاق وتسجيل مكاسب هائلة مباشرة عقب تلك التصريحات واستمرت تلك المكاسب خلال الدقائق الماضية أيضا فقبل لحظات كان مؤشر داو جونز مرتفعاً بواقع 165 نقطة وارتفع مؤشر ناسداك بواقع27 نقطة وارتفع مؤشر أس أند بي 500 بواقع 20 نقطة للتمكن تلك التصريحات بالإضافة إلى بيانات أرباح الشركات القوية مثل بيان شركة IBM وبيان أرباح شركة JPM والتي نجحت في رسم الاطمئنان لدي المستثمرين بشأن مستقبل أرباح الشركات في دفع وول ستريت لهذا الارتفاع.
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[ترايدر]

Slow Morning Today, Busy Week Ahead:
It is a quiet start to what will be a busy week. Stock futures suggest a lower open. That is a reaction to the strong gains last week more than the news today.

Continued tensions in the Middle East are getting some of the blame for the poor tone this morning. Oil prices are up a bit and holding near $73.50 a barrel. But it is hard to believe that the market was expecting much good news on the geopolitical front to develop over the weekend.

There are no economic releases yet this morning. The Chicago PMI manufacturing survey will be out at 10:00 ET. The real fireworks will come with the core PCE inflation data tomorrow and the July employment data on Friday.

There are only a couple of earnings reports of note. Humana and ArvinMentor had very nice reports. That won't move the market, however. Wal-Mart said that July same-store sales will be at the upper end of their forecast range, but still a tepid 2.4%.

The obsession for traders this week is likely to be how the economic releases affect the outlook for the Fed policy decision on August 8. Currently, fed funds futures are pricing in a 32% chance of a rate hike. If the core PCE deflator comes in at 0.3% for June, however, that may go up and the stock market will take a hit. If the core PCE comes in at 0.1%, it will be a boost to stocks.

The employment data on Friday is also critical. Expectations are for a gain of 125,000 to 150,000 in payrolls. The increases the past three months have been 92,000 and 121,000. Anything near 100,000 won't alter expectations for Fed policy. The hourly earnings figure in the employment data will also be closely watched. It has been 0.6%, 0.1%, and 0.5% the past three months. Wage increases are somewhat inflationary, although productivity gains offset the impact.

Sentiment clearly improved last week. There is more optimism about the longer term outlook. Interest rates are near their peak, whether the Fed moves on August 8 or not. Economic growth has slowed in a manner that suggests a successful soft landing (for more on this, see today's Big Picture column). Earnings growth remains impressive. If inflation starts to ease, the fundamentals are well aligned for market gains by year-end. -- Dick Green, Briefing.com.



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غدا بمشيئة الله تعالى 1/8 سيصدر تقرير مقياس التضخم PCE وفي حالة ان يكون الرقم 3% فاننا سنتوقع ارتفاع لمعدل سعر الفائدة في الاجتماع القادم 8/8 وفي حالة ان يكون الرقم 1% ستكون ردة فعل الاسواق ايجابيه جدا وستتجه انظار الاسواق الى الاجتماع القادم بكل ايجابيه .
كما سيصدر يوم الجمعة بيان التوظيف الذي قد يشكل نوع من الضغط على المصرف الاحتياطي الفدارلي سواء بالايجاب او السلب تجاه رفع معدل سعر الفائدة خلال الاجتماع القادم Aug 8 .

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من المهم جدا معرفة الرقم الذي سيكون عليه مقياس التضخم لمعرفة اتجاه السوق خلال الفترة القادمة .

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ترايدر

[ترايدر]

Updated: 04-Aug-06 08:55 ET


08:55 ET

Payroll Data Increases the Likelihood Fed Will Pause:
The critical factor for the near-term stock market outlook is the Fed policy decision next week. The employment data this morning is being interpreted entirely in that light.

July nonfarm payrolls rose 113,000. This was a bit less than the expected 125,000 to 150,000 increase. The initial reaction in the stock futures to the release was bullish. That is a valid response. The payroll numbers reflect moderate economic growth. The data decrease the likelihood of a Fed rate hike.

The data are not flat-out bullish. Hourly earnings rose 0.4%. This follows a strong 0.5% increase in June and leaves the year-over-year gain at 3.8%. Wage increases are clearly on the rise. That can add to inflation pressures. Wage hikes are partially offset by productivity gains, but a faster rate of wage hikes will be of some concern to the Fed.

The data reflect a slower rate of economic growth, but there is no indication of a recession. A 113,000 monthly increase in payrolls is almost exactly a 1% annual rate of increase. Coupled with 4% wage growth, consumer spending power is rising at about a 5% annual rate. That isn't much above total inflation, but it is enough to keep real consumer spending, and the economy, on a modest growth path.

The data are consistent with the soft landing that the Fed desires.

Our view is that the Fed will not raise rates at the meeting on Tuesday. Economic growth is slowing, and inflation rates need time to ease. Fed funds futures now incorporate only about a 20% chance of a rate hike on Tuesday. The Fed is cognizant of the fact that the market is not expecting a rate hike, and should take this opportunity to show that it is not stuck in a rut of always raising rates. Such action would not preclude them from raising rates again later in the year.

The stock market rally last week and this week incorporates optimism that the Fed won't raise rates on Tuesday. There is therefore no guarantee that the market will rally even if the Fed does pause, particularly if the policy statement makes it clear that further rate hikes may be needed. Nevertheless, the underlying tone has clearly improved.

-- Dick Green, Briefing.co

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اوضحت الارقام الاقتصادية الصادرة ان الاقتصاد يتباطأ ولكن لم يصل الى مرحلة الكساد لذا فانه من المرجح عدم رفع سعر الفائدة خلال اجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي القادم في 8 اوقست .
ردة فعل الاسواق كانت ايجابيه جداً .
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ترايدر

[ترايدر]

Updated: 08-Aug-06 08:55 ET


08:55 ET

Fed Day:
It is Fed Day. Stock futures suggest an up open. That reflects optimism that the Fed will not raise rates at today's FOMC policy meeting.

The market may indeed open higher, but then will probably go into a holding pattern until the Fed announcement at 2:15 ET. The market is often volatile after that, and not always in the direction that the announcement would suggest.

We do not expect the Fed to raise rates today. The associated policy statement will not, however, rule out the possibility of future rate hikes. The previous policy statement noted that "some inflation risks remain." That is certainly still the case.

The financial markets are assuming that there will be no rate hike. The action after the announcement could therefore be based on the policy wording more than on the fact that the Fed is "pausing" in this current interest rate cycle.

Second quarter productivity was reported up 1.1%. This is a little disappointing in that the year-over-year growth is now just 2.4%. Productivity growth helps keep inflation down by reducing unit labor costs - the labor costs to businesses of producing each unit of output. Unit labor costs were up a surprisingly strong 4.2% in the second quarter and the year-over-year increase is now 3.2%. Coupled with rising energy and other commodity prices, higher unit labor costs raise the pressure on businesses to increase prices.

The data this morning is a reminder that even though the Fed might not raise rates at today's meeting, an increase in underlying inflationary pressures over time could lead to the need to raise rates later this year.

Oil prices are slightly lower this morning, but still holding near $77 a barrel. -- Dick Green, Briefing.com.



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سيكون اجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي في تمام الساعة 2.15 بتوقيت نيويورك كما رشح العديد من المحلليين ان لايسفر الاجتماع عن رفع معدل سعر الفائدة نظرا لضعف الارقام الاقتصادية التي صدرت مؤخراً وكما يتوقع بمشيئة الله تعالى ارتفاع للسوق الامريكي خلال هذا اليوم نظرا لتأخير رفع معدل سعر الفائدة خلال الاجتماعات القادمة مع عدم اغفال وجود نسبة من التضخم وقد نشهد ارتفاع لمعدل سعر الفائدة ولكن على الارجح ليس في اجتماع هذا اليوم .

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ترايدر

[ترايدر]

Inflation Risks Remain


The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 5.25% at the August 8 meeting -- the first policy meeting without a hike since May 2004. However, opinion was mixed as Richmond Fed president Lacker dissented in favor of a rate hike to 5.50%. Outside of the post hurricane caution in September, the first dissent since the final ease to 1% in June 2003.

The tone of the policy statement was softer than expected as a more inflation hawkish tone was expected to join the lack of policy action. While it warned that the pause may be followed by further tightening, the heightened inflation indicators didn't get much attention.

The Fed noted the recent elevated growth of core inflation and that high utilization rates and high prices for energy and other commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures. But the reality of accelerated core inflation growth, the strong upturn in unit labor costs and a $77 price tag on a barrel of oil seemed to be calmed by the Fed's note that 'inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time' given moderated growth, contained inflation expectations and the effects of monetary policy actions still not reflected in the economy.

The door for further data-dependent rate hikes was retained by noting that 'inflation risks remain' and that 'additional firming may be needed to address these risks' given the Fed's outlook for both inflation and economic growth as implied by incoming information.

The inflation data leave Briefing.com siding with another rate hike ahead. Timing, however, will be difficult to gauge. Core inflation will continue to be the key indicator as continued 0.3% monthly gains (after that size over the last four months) will leave a yoy pace near 3% by the end of the quarter. Tuesday morning's report of Q2 growth and revisions lifting what was a 0.3% yoy rise in unit labor costs to 3.2% yoy in Q2 is also disturbing given its key read on labor market inflation pressures.

The release of the August FOMC minutes on August 29 will provide a read on any tensions surrounding the dissenting vote and if the desire for another hike was broader based than Lacker's single vote.

The futures market sees the policy statement as suggesting a lower probability for further rate hikes. Late Tuesday prices showed the November contract pricing in 68% probability that rates remain on hold through the September 20 and October 24/25 FOMC policy meetings. December's implied rate of 5.335% was the peak as March stood barely above the current policy rate at 5.29%.
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كما هو متوقع لم يكن هناك اي زيادة في معدل سعر الفائدة خلال اجتماع اوقست .
وفي الاجتماعات القادمة لك حدث حديث سنشير في حينه بمشيئة الله تعالى .

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ترايدر

[ترايدر]

The big event this week, of course, is the Fed policy meeting on Wednesday. The market is just about 100% convinced that there will be no change in policy, but the announcement will be over-analyzed as always. The core PPI data is out tomorrow, but it will have less impact than usual as the core CPI data is already out. PPI is usually released prior to the far more important CPI.

سيكون اجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي يوم الاربعاء القادم 20 سبتمبر كما ان هناك نسبة كبيره جدا من المحلليين يستبعدون ان يسفر الاجتماع عن رفع لمعدل سعر الفائدة خلال هذا الاجتماع

[ترايدر]

FOMC Policy Statement

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent. The moderation in economic growth appears to be continuing, partly reflecting a cooling of the housing market. Readings on core inflation have been elevated, and the high levels of resource utilization and of the prices of energy and other commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures. However, inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations, and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggre**** demand. Nonetheless, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.

14:13 BONDX Bond Watch: FOMC As expected Fed does not hike rates

مبروك تبقى اسعار الفائدة كما هي

[ترايدر]

المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي بدأ يلمح الى خفض سعر الفائدة خلال مارس 2007م نتيجة الارقام الاقتصادية الامريكية الضعيفة التي ادت الى نزول سعر الدولار الى ادنى مستوى له منذ 20 شهراً اما العملات الاجنبية

[ترايدر]

من خلال هذا الاجراء وهذه التلميحات بدأت تعود الاسواق الى حالتها الطبيعية وبانتظار اعلان الارباح الايجابية التي ستضع الاقتصاد الامريكي بمشيئة الله تعالى في مكانه الطبيعي وتعيد قوة عملته .

تمنياتي القلبية للجميع بالتوفيق في ظل سياسة اقتصادية مدروسة بعيدا عن العشوائية واهواء المستثمرين

[أسهم بقالة]

السلام عليكم
جزاك الله خير اخوي تريدر على مجهودك
لكن عندي سؤال (سؤال واحد جاهل بالاسواق العالمية)
مالاشياء الايجابية للسوق الامريكي وماهي الاشياء السلبيه للسوق الامريكي؟؟؟
مثلا رفع الفائده او انقاصها؟؟؟ او رفع الذهب والبترول او نزوله؟؟؟ مع العلم ان الحكومه االامريكية هي السبب في رفع اسعار البترول والذهب بسبب حروبهم الشعواء احتلالهم للدول ....
باختصار ما مستقبل السوق الامريكي في حال انتهاء حكم بوش وتولي الديموقراطيين الحكم ؟

[ترايدر]

السلام عليكم
جزاك الله خير اخوي تريدر على مجهودك
لكن عندي سؤال (سؤال واحد جاهل بالاسواق العالمية)
مالاشياء الايجابية للسوق الامريكي وماهي الاشياء السلبيه للسوق الامريكي؟؟؟
مثلا رفع الفائده او انقاصها؟؟؟ او رفع الذهب والبترول او نزوله؟؟؟ مع العلم ان الحكومه االامريكية هي السبب في رفع اسعار البترول والذهب بسبب حروبهم الشعواء احتلالهم للدول ....
باختصار ما مستقبل السوق الامريكي في حال انتهاء حكم بوش وتولي الديموقراطيين الحكم ؟


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اهلين اخي الكريم

ليس هناك جاهل وانت تنقصك المعلومة حفظك الله

من الصعب اننا نتحدث عن اقتصاد بحجم الاقتصاد الامريكي
ولكن بشكل مختصر

ايجابيات الاسواق الامريكية لاتعد ولا تحصى ولكني سأوجزها باختصار

اولاً واخيرا جميع اقتصاديات العالم مرتبطه بهذا الاقتصاد والاهم فان جميع المعادن الثمينة يتم تسعيرها على اساس $ العملة الامريكية بما فيها الذهب الاسود "النفط"
نسبة سعر الفائدة في اغلب دول العالم يتم قياسها بمعدل سعرة الفائدة الامريكي
عملة اغلب الدول بما فيها السعودية مرتبطة بالدولار والبقية التي تمتلك سلة من العملات فان الدولار الامريكي جزأ لايتجزأ من هذه السلة .

الاسواق الامريكية

كل ما ذكر له مردوده الايجابي على الاسواق الامريكية

تحمل الجوانب العديدة من المميزات التي لاتتوفر في أي سوق عالمي
الشفافية والمصداقية في نقل المعلومات والاهم هو سهولة الحصول عليها من خلال المواقع المفتوحه .
الاسواق الامريكية تتماشى مع اهم ركائز تحليل الاسواق وهو التحليل الفني والاساسي.
عمليات فتح الحساب من خلال البنوك والبروكرات متاح لجميع دول العالم من خلال مواقعها بعيدا عن البيروقراطيه والروتين

عدد المستثمرين في الاسواق الامريكية يتجاوز في آخر احصائية 85 مليون مستثمر يتم تداولهم من خلال ارقى انواع الاتصال المباشر واللغير مباشر بهذه الاسواق بكل مرونه .
ماذا تريدنا اتحدث عنه صناديق التقاعدات الخاصة بموظفي الحكومات والصناديق التعاونيه هي استثمارات في شركات هذا الاقتصاد .

الادوات الاستثمارية المستخدمة في الاسواق الامريكية لاتتوفر في أي سوق عالمي
سبق الحديث عنها ولكن بايجاز بأمكانك الحصول على قرض من البنك او البروكر لرفع القوة الشرائية الخاصة بالمستثمر او مايسمى بـ (المارقن) مع تحفظي على الشرعية بامكانك شراء كاش او عربون لاي سهم وبامكانك البيع قبل لاي سهم قبل عملية الشراء والمعروفة بالشورت سهل .


طبعاً هذه الادوات تتيح لاي مستثمر فرضية الربح سوى كان الصعود في ارتفاع من خلال الادوات الاستثمارية او كان السوق في هبوط ايضا من خلال نفس الادوات الاستثمارية وهذا لايتوفر الا في السوق الامريكي مع تحفظي على الاسواق الاوربيه لاختلافه آلية الاوبشن "العربون"

هناك تنظيم للاسواق وهي ثلاثة اسواق :
سوق رئيسي ايضا مقسم الى عدد من القطاعات واثنين ثانوية السوق الثاني صاحب الرمز ob والسوق الثالث صاحب الرمز pk وشروط ومواصفات للدخول في هذه الاسواق وكل سوق ومتابعة السوق الرئيسي بصفه خاصة من قبل الهيئة الخاصة بالاوراق المالية متابعة دقيقه وصارمة تعرض بعض الشركات للافلاس مهما كان وضعها وصفتها في السوق أي هناك شفافية في الارقام المالية لاي شركة مدرجة في السوق الرئيسي


ومهما تحدثنا فلن نصل الى انه افضل منظمومة اقتصادية على مستوى العالم

السلبيات في الاستثمار في هذا الاقتصاد وهي ان الولايات المتحدة الامريكية وبعد الحرب الباردة استطاعت ان تسيطرة على العالم عسكريا واقتصادية وهذه ميزة ولكن قد يشكل لها عداء من قبل الدول العظماء وهذا قد يرهق اقتصادها مع مرور الوقت فالصين نمو الاقتصادي قياسي بعيده كل البعد عن المشاكل بين الدول كما ان الاتحاد الاوربي يشكل خطر حقيقي قادم والنمو في البنية التحية لاقتصاد الهند التي تعتبر ثاني بلد بعد الصين في النمو الاقتصادي لها فهي ايضا دولة قادمة .

عملية ارتفاع اسعار البترول فهي تخض للعرض والطلب وخاصة ان هناك دول نسبة نموها السنوي فوق المعدل العالمي منها الصين والهند بالاضافة الى تكلفة استخراج برميل واحد من البترول في الولايات المتحدة اكثر بكثير عند قياسة بدول الخليج الذي يصل الى 1$ فقط بينما في الولايات المتحدة قد يصلى الى ثمانية اضعاف هذا الرقم .
وفيما يتعلق بارتفاع الذهب فالذهب ايضا فهو خاض للطلب والعرض ويزيد الطلب في الاحداث الجيوسياسه وخاصة في منطقة الشرق الاوسط فاغلب الدول تتخذ من الذهب هو الملاذ الامن للحفاظ على عملتها كما ان التضخم للاسواق الامريكية يرفع بدرجة كبيره سعر الذهب لان اغلب المستثمرين يلجأ الى الذهب في حالة وصول التضخم في الاسواق الامريكي الى مستويات مخيفة .

رفع معدل سعر الفائدة يؤثر بشكل مباشرة الى ارباح الشركات وبالتالي التأثير المباشر في السعر السوقي لاي شركة وارتباط ذلك بصرف الدولار الامريكي مقابل العملات العالمية الاخرى .

فيما يتعلق بالرئاسة الامريكية

فأن الرئاسة متداولة بين الحزب الجمهوري فهذا الحزب سياسية خارجية بحته لذا نجد ان الحروب الامريكية يتم تنفيذه ورسمها في حالة فوز هذه الحزب بالرئاسة ينتج عنا نزول في الاسواق الامريكية وارتفاع في اسعار البترول الى اسعار قياسية
وقد لايعي أي اتهمام للسياسة الداخلية للولايات المتحدة لذا نجد ارتفاع في معدل سعر الفائدة ووصولى الى ارقام قياسية وقس عليها .

وفي حالة فوز الديمقراطيين فان سياسية هذا الحزب سياسة داخلية يتم بالاقتصاد الامريكية وبالشعب فهي من اولوياته وتبدأ عملية التهدئة الامريكية في مشاكل الشرق الاوسط وهو الملاحظ الان
نتجه عنه ارتفاع وانتعاش في الاسواق الامريكية ونزول في اسعار البترول ونزول في معدل سعر الفائدة وبالتالي سينعكس على ارباح الشركات الامريكية .

وهذا مايتم الان على صعيد السياسة الامريكية التدئة في الشرق الاوسط في العراق وقد يتخلله انسحاب تدريجي للقوات الامريكية بالاضافة الى تدئة التصعيد مع ايران وسوريا وتلميحات المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي بخفض معدل سعر الفائدة

[الكـــايد]

اليوم الاجتماع ويتوقع ان يبقى سعر الفائدة بدون تغير !

[ترايدر]

بالفعل اسفر اجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي اليوم بابقاء معدل سعر الفائدة دون تغيير عند 5.25 نقطة