SKYHAWK
01-04-2005, 12:01 AM
ELN تهوي الى3.20$ الساعة الثانية عشر وخمسين دقيقة بعد منتصف الليل بتوقيت المملكة...
وذلك بسبب الأخبار التي وردت بمتعاطي ثالث للدواء..
بالمناسبة: الله يعين الذين تورطوا فيها،
اشتريتها ب6.41 وبعتها ب 7.28 لأني بصراحة خفت منها..
LAST: 3:20
CHANGE: -3:78
...
Wednesday's news that a third Tysabri user has been suspected of developing an extremely rare and deadly brain disease has further dampened hopes that the drug will eventually be put back on the market.
Elan shares plummeted about 55 percent to $3.16 on Thursday.
The news prompted several brokerages to lower their ratings of Elan (ELN (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=ELN&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoostoryquote): news (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/news.asp?siteid=yhoo&symb=ELN&dist=yhoostorynews), chart (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?siteid=yhoo&symb=ELN&dist=yhoostorychart), profile (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?siteid=yhoo&symb=ELN&dist=yhoostoryprofile)) , with analysts at Deutsche Bank, A.G. Edwards, Smith Barney all lowering their ratings of the stock to "sell."
Morgan Stanley analysts bluntly called the third case of PML "likely the final nail in the coffin on this product."
The new case is highly significant in that the patient, who died in 2003, had been using Tysabri alone, while the other two patients had been using both Tysabri and with another Biogen drug, Avonex. Many investors had hoped that the disease was being triggered by an unexpected negative interaction between Avonex and Tysabri, rather than by Tysabri itself.
Elan has said that it expected to turn the corner to profitability by the end of 2006, largely on the sales of Tysabri. The drug was expected to have peak sales of about $4 billion in 2009, with Elan and Biogen sharing equally in the profits.
According to a note released by Smith Barney, profitability will now be delayed until 2009.
Meanwhile, Elan continues to operate in the red. In 2004, Elan reported a loss of $376 million, or 96 cents a share, on revenue of $481.7 million. The company has three other products, Maxipime, Prialt and Azactam, on the market and receives royalties on several others. Most of its pipeline focuses on such neurological diseases as Alzheimer's.
The Irish drugmaker's financial picture is also clouded by its recent $1 billion dollar bond offering, the debt of which will come due in 2008. The company has said it has said it has $1.5 billion in cash.
And earlier this year, Elan agreed to pay a $15 million fine to the Securities and Exchange Commission over charges stemming from its handling of a past joint venture. The company said it has put away $55 million to cover costs associated with that case. It has also had several shareholders suits filed against it over Tysabri.
If Elan does flounder, it will not be the first time that it has peeked into a financial abyss. In 2002, the company was forced to sell off assets to avoid running aground.
"Absent Tysabri, we believe Elan effectively belongs to its debt holders," wrote AG Edwards analysts. "Heavy restructuring may allow the company to meet interest obligations, but paying down principal will be tough."
However, at least one analyst group remained somewhat positive about Elan's financial outlook.
"While this latest case of PML makes the drug's return to market more uncertain, Elan still has $1.5 billion of cash on hand and does not face significant debt maturities until February 2008. This liquidity remains an important support for the current credit rating," wrote analysts at Standard & Poor's, who have a "stable" rating on the company.
Once hailed as a break-through drug in the treatment of multiple sclerosis, Biogen and Elan abruptly pulled Tysabri from the market on February 28 after two patients were diagnosed with the progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML, a rare but often fatal brain infection.
One of those patients has since died of the disease. On Wednesday, the companies said that a review of old medical records revealed that another suspected case, involving a patient who had died during the course of a clinical trial in 2003. At the time, the patient's death was attributed to a form of brain cancer. The patient had been a participant in a clinical trial being run by Elan testing Tysabri for the treatment of Crohn's disease, according to Biogen. It is also believed that the patient had taken immunosupressants at some point.
Elan's lost almost 70 percent of its market capitalization since the Feb. 28 announcement.
Meanwhile, The Times of London reported earlier this week that Elan's board of directors was considering splitting the company's European drug delivery operations from its biotechnology researcher group, which is based primarily in San Francisco.
The article said it was unclear whether senior executive management, including chief executive officer Kelly Martin, was in favor of the plan.
"Without Tysabri, it is very difficult to assign value to equity holders without assuming dramatic cost cuts or a complete restructuring of the company. A break-up valuation suggests that shares of Elan are worth $2.69," wrote analysts at Smith Barney, who lowered their rating of the stock to "sell" with a price target of $2.50.
وذلك بسبب الأخبار التي وردت بمتعاطي ثالث للدواء..
بالمناسبة: الله يعين الذين تورطوا فيها،
اشتريتها ب6.41 وبعتها ب 7.28 لأني بصراحة خفت منها..
LAST: 3:20
CHANGE: -3:78
...
Wednesday's news that a third Tysabri user has been suspected of developing an extremely rare and deadly brain disease has further dampened hopes that the drug will eventually be put back on the market.
Elan shares plummeted about 55 percent to $3.16 on Thursday.
The news prompted several brokerages to lower their ratings of Elan (ELN (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=ELN&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoostoryquote): news (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/news.asp?siteid=yhoo&symb=ELN&dist=yhoostorynews), chart (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?siteid=yhoo&symb=ELN&dist=yhoostorychart), profile (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?siteid=yhoo&symb=ELN&dist=yhoostoryprofile)) , with analysts at Deutsche Bank, A.G. Edwards, Smith Barney all lowering their ratings of the stock to "sell."
Morgan Stanley analysts bluntly called the third case of PML "likely the final nail in the coffin on this product."
The new case is highly significant in that the patient, who died in 2003, had been using Tysabri alone, while the other two patients had been using both Tysabri and with another Biogen drug, Avonex. Many investors had hoped that the disease was being triggered by an unexpected negative interaction between Avonex and Tysabri, rather than by Tysabri itself.
Elan has said that it expected to turn the corner to profitability by the end of 2006, largely on the sales of Tysabri. The drug was expected to have peak sales of about $4 billion in 2009, with Elan and Biogen sharing equally in the profits.
According to a note released by Smith Barney, profitability will now be delayed until 2009.
Meanwhile, Elan continues to operate in the red. In 2004, Elan reported a loss of $376 million, or 96 cents a share, on revenue of $481.7 million. The company has three other products, Maxipime, Prialt and Azactam, on the market and receives royalties on several others. Most of its pipeline focuses on such neurological diseases as Alzheimer's.
The Irish drugmaker's financial picture is also clouded by its recent $1 billion dollar bond offering, the debt of which will come due in 2008. The company has said it has said it has $1.5 billion in cash.
And earlier this year, Elan agreed to pay a $15 million fine to the Securities and Exchange Commission over charges stemming from its handling of a past joint venture. The company said it has put away $55 million to cover costs associated with that case. It has also had several shareholders suits filed against it over Tysabri.
If Elan does flounder, it will not be the first time that it has peeked into a financial abyss. In 2002, the company was forced to sell off assets to avoid running aground.
"Absent Tysabri, we believe Elan effectively belongs to its debt holders," wrote AG Edwards analysts. "Heavy restructuring may allow the company to meet interest obligations, but paying down principal will be tough."
However, at least one analyst group remained somewhat positive about Elan's financial outlook.
"While this latest case of PML makes the drug's return to market more uncertain, Elan still has $1.5 billion of cash on hand and does not face significant debt maturities until February 2008. This liquidity remains an important support for the current credit rating," wrote analysts at Standard & Poor's, who have a "stable" rating on the company.
Once hailed as a break-through drug in the treatment of multiple sclerosis, Biogen and Elan abruptly pulled Tysabri from the market on February 28 after two patients were diagnosed with the progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML, a rare but often fatal brain infection.
One of those patients has since died of the disease. On Wednesday, the companies said that a review of old medical records revealed that another suspected case, involving a patient who had died during the course of a clinical trial in 2003. At the time, the patient's death was attributed to a form of brain cancer. The patient had been a participant in a clinical trial being run by Elan testing Tysabri for the treatment of Crohn's disease, according to Biogen. It is also believed that the patient had taken immunosupressants at some point.
Elan's lost almost 70 percent of its market capitalization since the Feb. 28 announcement.
Meanwhile, The Times of London reported earlier this week that Elan's board of directors was considering splitting the company's European drug delivery operations from its biotechnology researcher group, which is based primarily in San Francisco.
The article said it was unclear whether senior executive management, including chief executive officer Kelly Martin, was in favor of the plan.
"Without Tysabri, it is very difficult to assign value to equity holders without assuming dramatic cost cuts or a complete restructuring of the company. A break-up valuation suggests that shares of Elan are worth $2.69," wrote analysts at Smith Barney, who lowered their rating of the stock to "sell" with a price target of $2.50.