وفاة الدولار الامريكي

[امير النت]

مادري وش سالفة الروابط لكن على العموم انسخ العنوان والصقه على صفحه جديده راح توصل للموقع ان شاء الله

[امير النت]

The Death of the Dollar

Jason Hommel

Ceasar was supposed to be a god.
Julias Caesar was killed
on the Ides of March (March 15th)

Today, we don't make men gods. Instead society has made our financial system into a false god.

On March 15th, 2005, (the ides of March) we may have just witnessed the beginning of the death of our financial system as General Motors stock took a nosedive from $34/share down to $30.

It does not seem like much (GM down just over 10% in one day), but as of March 17th, the stock is down to $28.35, and the market cap is down to $16 billion. (GM is down nearly 18% for the week.) It's the type of volatility that we usually only see in silver stocks!

What does this mean?

GM's stock price decline is like a dagger right into the heart of the U.S. financial system, and the dollar itself!

Why did it happen?

Apparently, someone in power did the equivalent of shouting "the emperor has no clothes" and people woke up, and are beginning to see more clearly! The media decided it was time to expose the truth that GM is nearly insolvent, and will expect to lose $1.50/share in the first quarter alone!

But the story is worse than that! GM has $300 billion in debt http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GM

...and has a market cap, now, of $16 billion. See the problem there? The bondholders could buy the company nearly 20 times over if they used their money to buy stock instead of loan it to the company. The implication is clear--that GM is headed towards bankruptcy, and will default on the bondholders, who will then own a company worth less than $16 billion dollars!

For every one point that interest rates rise, refinancing GM's debt will cost an additional $3 billion in annual interest payments -- money that they clearly do not have! Where is GM going to get another $3 to $6 to $9 billion as interest rates rise by 1%, 2%, and 3% more? Selling cars? Nope. Selling stock? Unlikely in this market! Borrowing more? From whom? The U.S. government itself is propping up this bond market, and there are no buyers even for U.S. bonds, and there haven't been for months now!

So, therefore, GM will soon be a $300 billion dollar blow-up!

How big is that? It's bigger than Enron, Global Crossing, LTCM, K-Mart, and the IRAQ war all put together!

$300 billion going belly up is a big enough event to topple the U.S. government! How so? It will shake the confidence in the entire financial system. Companies as big as GM are not supposed to go bankrupt in our "normal" world. They are "supposed" to be "too big to fail".

The value of the "official" U.S. gold hoard of 261 million oz., at $440/oz. is only a mere $115 billion.

See what this $300 billion blow-up will mean? Imagine the financial chaos as a pile of wealth almost three times larger than the current value of the U.S. "official" gold hoard evaporates!

The annual deficit is around $700 billion. How will the U.S. government sell bonds to finance the deficit if bondholders are getting wiped out?

If the government can't sell bonds while running a deficit, then the government must simply be printing money to fund the deficit--and they are, as can be seen in the rate of growth of the money supply, M3! Therefore, inflation is raging, and interest rates must keep pace, which is why GM is doomed!

Interest rates must head up, as confidence in the U.S. dollar bond market will be shaken like a tree in a hurricane!

Foreign nations are all sounding the alarm already that they will be selling U.S. bonds to diversify the holdings of their central banks: Russia, India, China, South Korea, Japan... what major foreign nation is left to buy them?

A Tsunami of dollar selling is about to begin, and will make the recent dollar decline seem like a small bump in the road.

It may take a few months for this to play out. You may have time to buy silver at under $10/oz. for a few more weeks or months. But after GM declares bankruptcy, which may take between 3 months to a year, get ready for the dollar to crash by more than 90% in the following 6-12 months.

Germany's hyperinflation in the 1930's took about a year and a half. Recently, Argentina's took place nearly overnight. Who knows which way the dollar will die, whether a quick death, or a more slow and painful one?

Either way, the dollar is dead. Long live gold and silver!

March 18th, 2005

هذا الموضوع نسخته من موقعه الاصلي

[جمشيد]

المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة ترايدر

ماس
لاتأخذ الاستثمار بعواطفك وهذي نصيحه وهمسه في اذنك
اخي الكريم من خلال موضوع افضل الشركات في المداخيل والمبيعات تذكر شركة BCR كم سعرها اليوم( 66.51$) وراح اذكرك بعد اشهر لين وصلت 80$ هذا تحليل فني وصدقني التحليل الاساسي يوصلها 90$ بمشيئة الله تعالى .
============

تحياتي ترايدر

نعم لا اختلف معك انا اميل للعاطفه بالاستثمار
لكن كون الرئيس التنفيذي لشركة فورد قام بشراء
1.51m سهم الا يعطيني فكره والله اعلم

[جمشيد]

Date Broker New Recommendation Old Recommendation

1/27/2005 Standard & Poor's Buy from Hold
bcr بالفعل سهم جيد

[ترايدر]

المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة mass61

نعم لا اختلف معك انا اميل للعاطفه بالاستثمار
لكن كون الرئيس التنفيذي لشركة فورد قام بشراء
1.51m سهم الا يعطيني فكره والله اعلم

====
عذراً امير النت ما انتبهت لردك اشكرك على الثقه ومنكم نستفيد
تقبل تحياتي
=========
ماس
هذا تقرير عن سهم BNE
مختصر التقرير تعريف بالشركة واحد المحللين اعطاها اب قريد ويتوقع لها مستقبل جيد واكد تقرير هذا المحلل شراء شركة(BMW) !!!!!!!!!!!!! حيث اشترت اسهم في هذه الشركة واعطتها تارجت 21$ خلال سنة السعر الحالي (14.79$) .
تاريخ التقرير March 9, 2005
===========
Take a look at $562.5 million (market cap.) Bowne & Co. (Ticker: BNE), the world’s #1 printing firm specializing in financial documents such as prospectuses, annual and interim reports, and all that other Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) stuff: like electronic filings via the SEC’s EDGAR system. BNE is also highly sort after for high-volume mailing services. But what Michael Price’s MFP Partners – which recently snapped up 307,900 shares worth $4.7 million – has noticed is that BNE, once an old-fashioned, paper-based, disparate, and labor-intensive typesetting operation has quietly transformed itself into an integrated, state-of-the-art, low-cost, security printer. Not only has BNE taken full advantage of rising bandwidth and software that enables it to work on a myriad of financial documents simultaneously, this New York-based company has also worked feverously to develop its own homegrown software.

It’s starting to pay off. For the year ended 12/31/04, revenues increased by 6% to $899 million and the net loss from continuing operations (BNE last year sold its outsourcing business segment to Williams Lea for $180 million) decreased by 14% to $8.2 million. To be sure, BNE’s transformation into a high-tech security printer is not before time. Not only did it lose money last year, but its return on assets was a pitiful -1.14%, and return on equity -2.22%.

Michael Price’s investment style centers on “prospective mergers, undervalued assets, bankruptcies and reorganizations.” And, reassuringly for other investors in the same stock, he never shrinks from voicing his opinions on how a management can better run a company. He’s usually right. Which almost certainly means that analyst expectations for BNE to earn 69 cents a share this year, and 74 cents a share next year, are too conservative. And a prospective p/e of 21, with the stock at $15.70, too high. BMW is backing the savvy Mr. Price’s judgment and buying BNE with a target of $21 within a year.


تحياتي ترايدر