للتسجيل اضغط هـنـا
أنظمة الموقع تداول في الإعلام للإعلان لديـنا راسلنا التسجيل طلب كود تنشيط العضوية   تنشيط العضوية استعادة كلمة المرور
تداول مواقع الشركات مركز البرامج
مؤشرات السوق اسعار النفط مؤشرات العالم اعلانات الشركات الاكثر نشاط تحميل
 



العودة   منتديات تداول > الادارة والاقتصاد > مـــنــــتــــــدى السلع و العملات والنفط



إضافة رد
 
أدوات الموضوع
قديم 16-05-2014, 12:08 AM   #81
walid
متداول نشيط
 
تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي 15/5/2014 - The Current Market Sentiment

The risk aversion continued its possession of the current market sentiment by dovish US industrial production in March has been drown down by 0.6% monthly, while the market was waiting for unchanged monthly figure after rising by 0.7% in march has been revised up to be by 0.9% driving the US treasuries yield down to watch UST 10YR now at 2.49% undermining the demand for the greenback.

USDJPY could not have a place over 102 again following the release of this figure to retreat to its previous supporting level at 101.31, while the Japanese yen has been actually well-supported by the flash release of the Japanese GDP growth in Q1 which rose by 5.9%, while the market was waiting for 4.2% from 0.3% in the fourth quarter of last year.

BOJ’s Chief Krouda came also to say that he is confident in the Japanese economic in the summer, after digesting the negative impact of the sales taxes rising by 3% this financial year to lower the probability of having precedent easing measures in the face of the negative consequences of this levy hiking.

Kuroda has shown also trust in continued rising of the inflation to reach 2.1% yearly by 2017 financial year from 1.3% this year showing that all options are possible to BOJ to use to reach the 2% yearly inflation target of BOJ.

God willing, USDJPY can meet now in the case of going down further below 101.31 supporting level at 102.75 before 101.72 which could stave off its falling last week but breaking it can be followed by meeting another supporting level at 101.19 which could support it 2 times last March, while breaking it can lead to 100.73, before the psychological level at 100 which can open the way to other lower supporting levels have been formed last year at 99.55, 99.08 and 97.61, while rising from here can be met by resisting level at 102.1 before 102.35 which capped the pair from getting over its 200 h4 moving average this week before 103 which has been reached last week on the release of US bullish labor report of April, while going over it can be met by higher resistance at 103.38 before104.12 which has been reached also following the release of March US labor report in a repeated characteristic of this pair, while surpassing it can be followed by facing 105 psychological resisting level again which could hold on last January to bring he pair down from 104.92, while breaking it can open the way to this year high at 105.44 which has been reached in the beginning day of it.






Kind Regards



FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

Mob: +20 12 2465 9143

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 16-05-2014, 06:05 AM   #82
walid
متداول نشيط
 
تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي The risk aversion put more pressure on USDJPY

The risk aversion continued its possession of the current market sentiment by dovish US industrial production in March has been drown down by 0.6% monthly, while the market was waiting for unchanged monthly figure after rising by 0.7% in march has been revised up to be by 0.9% driving the US treasuries yield down to watch UST 10YR now at 2.49% undermining the demand for the greenback.

USDJPY could not have a place over 102 again following the release of this figure to retreat to its previous supporting level at 101.31, while the Japanese yen has been actually well-supported by the flash release of the Japanese GDP growth in Q1 which rose by 5.9%, while the market was waiting for 4.2% from 0.3% in the fourth quarter of last year.

BOJ’s Chief Krouda came also to say that he is confident in the Japanese economic in the summer, after digesting the negative impact of the sales taxes rising by 3% this financial year to lower the probability of having precedent easing measures in the face of the negative consequences of this levy hiking.

Kuroda has shown also trust in continued rising of the inflation to reach 2.1% yearly by 2017 financial year from 1.3% this year showing that all options are possible to BOJ to use to reach the 2% yearly inflation target of BOJ.

God willing, USDJPY can meet now in the case of going down further below 101.31 supporting level at 101.19 which could support it 2 times last March, while breaking it can lead to 100.73, before the psychological level at 100 which can open the way to other lower supporting levels have been formed last year at 99.55, 99.08 and 97.61, while rising from here can be met by resisting level at 102.1 before 102.35 which capped the pair from getting over its 200 h4 moving average this week before 103 which has been reached last week on the release of US bullish labor report of April, while going over it can be met by higher resistance at 103.38 before 104.12 which has been reached also following the release of March US labor report in a repeated characteristic of this pair,while surpassing it can be followed by facing 105 psychological resisting level again which could hold on last January to bring he pair down from 104.92, while breaking it can open the way to this year high at 105.44 which has been reached in the beginning day of it.






Kind Regards



FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

Mob: +20 12 2465 9143

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 28-05-2014, 04:43 PM   #83
walid
متداول نشيط
 
تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي 28/5/2014 - The Current Market Sentiment

XAUUSD is still the most watched instrument since yesterday gaining of the US major equities indexes which rose in its first session this week underpinned by new good economic data could not be ignored to push S&P 500 higher further over 1900 psychological level.
S&P 500 could reach these levels basically on the release of the FOMC’s recent meeting minutes which have shown tries for finding a way to the opposite direction lowering its easing stance further with keeping the reinvestment of maturing assets, after the beginning of raising the interest rate.
The greenback has been underpinning by these minutes and also the US equities with no expectations of beginning of selling soon of the $4.34 trillions of assets in the current Fed’s way of tightening its policy.
These minutes impacts have materialized on the greenback versus its currencies rivals last week but it took its toll against the gold this week too to watch XAUUSD getting away from its adopted side way of trading around 1300$ psychological level since falling from 1392$ following Crimea referendum.
The gold came under pressure with oil prices easing down on hopes for having quick solutions in the East of Ukraine with the new president to drive Brent to be traded now below its trend line support extended from 106.42 to 107.02.
From another, the risk appetite improving could contain the market into the new week to make the gold less attractive and unable to hold trading near 1300$ at least currently to reach 1260$ per ounce during the Asian session, after breaking its previous supporting levels at 1285$, 1279$, 1274$ and 1268$ and by God’s will in the case of retreating further, it can meet other supporting levels at 1231$, 1216$ before 1200$psychological level which can be followed by its lowest level of last year at 1180$ which could hold supporting it at the end of it to rebound from 1182$,while rising gain can be met by resisting levels at 1308$, 1331$, 1342$ and 1363$ before its recent peak at 1392$ again.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 08-06-2014, 04:20 AM   #84
walid
متداول نشيط
 
تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي الأسواق تجد مزيد من الثقة في الإقتصاد الأمريكي بعد بيانات سوق العمل لشهر مايو

إرتفعت الثقة في أداء الإقتصادي الأمريكي بعد مجيء تقرير العمالة الأمريكي لشهر مايو ليُظهر إستقرار مُعدل البطالة عند 6.3% كما كان في إبريل بينما كان المُتوقع إرتفاعه ل 6.4% كما جاء بيان التغير في الوظائف خارج القطاع الزراعي ليُظهر إضافة 217 ألف وظيفة ليكون مايو هو الشهر الرابع على التوالي الذي يأتي في البيان فوق مُستوى ال 200 ألف وظيفة و هو ما لم يحدث مُنذ بداية القرن الحالي فلم يتكرر ذلك منذ أن جاء هذا البيان في أخر ثلاثة اشهر من 1999 و في يناير 2000 فوق 200 ألف وظيفة.
فبعد صدور هذة البيانات قبل بداية جلسة الجمعة تمكنت مؤشرات الأسهم الأمريكية الرئيسية من إفتتاحها على إرتفاع حافظت عليه حتى نهاية الجلسة ليُغلق الداو جونز الصناعي على إرتفاع ب 88 نقطة عند 16924 كما صعد الناسداك المُجمع أسهم التكنولوجيا ب 25 نقطة ليُغلق عند 4321 كما أنهى مؤشر إستدارد أند بورز الجلسة مُرتفعاً ب 8 نقاط عند أعلى مُستوى يصل له في تارايخه عند 1949.
بينما شهدت الجلسة إستقرار للعوائد على إذون الخزانة الأمريكية دون تغيير مُحتفظتً بما حققته من مكاسب في الإثنين و الثلاثاء الماضيين صعد معهما العائد على إذن الخزانة لمدة 10 اعوام ل 2.6% بعد ان قد وصل لقرب ال 2.4% في الثالث من الشهر الجاري حيثُ المُستوى الدنى منذ يونيو 2013.
كما وجدت أسعار النفط و المواد الأوالية الدعم مع هذة البيانات التي دعمت شهية المُخاطرة و رفعت الثقة في حدوث تسارع في نمو الإقتصاد الأمريكي بعد إنكماشه ب 1% في الربع الأول بسبب سوء الأحوال الجوية.
ليصعد خام برنت فوق مُستوى ال 109 ويصل ل 109.28 قبل أن يعود و يغلق الإسبوع عند 108.8 بعد أن كان يتداول قبل صدور بيان الوظائف الأمريكي لشهر مايو دون ال 108 لبرميل كما ادى هذا الإرتفاع لدعم الذهب أيضاً كمِرأة للتضخم ليصعد ل 1257 للاونصة قبل أن يتراجع ليُغلق الإسبوع عند 1253 دولار للأونصة.
بينما يظل النفط و الذهب في ترابط مع إستمرار ترقب الأسوق لصدور أخبار جديدة عن الوضع في شرق أوكرنيا فقد تداولت اخبار مُؤخراً عن رفع روسيا لتواجدها على الحدود مع اوكرنيا بعدد ان قد خففتها في الإسبوع قبل الماضي كما صرحت بانها قد تلجئ لوقف تصدير النفط و الغاز لدول الأوروبية في حال إتجاهها لإعادة تصديره لأوكرانيا التي تُطالبها بسداد ما عليها من مُستحقات لروسيا مُقابل مدها بلوقود.
فبعد أن أمضى الذهب أغلب فترات تداوله الإسبوع الماضي بلقرب من لكن دون ال 1250 دولار للأونصة يُنتظر الأن بإذن الله أن يُقابله في حال الصعود مقاومة عند 1268 ثم 1284 يليها 1295 قبل مُستوى ال 1300 دولار النفسي الذي قد يتبع مُقابلة مقاومة اخرى عند 1315 يليها 1331 ثم 1342 دولار للأونصة ثم مقاومة أخرى عند 1363 ثم عند 1392 حيثُ أعلى مستوى وصل إليه هذا العام بسبب الأزمة الأوكرانية بينما يُنتظر في حال معاودة التراجع نقاط دعم عند 1240 ثم عند 1231 ثم 1218 قبل مستوى الدعم النفسي عند 1200 الذي يليه 1180 التي تمكنت من دعمه في أخر ساعات تداول العام الماضي ليُعاود الصعود مُكوناً قاع أخر عند 1182.
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 10-06-2014, 08:57 AM   #85
walid
متداول نشيط
 
تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي 10/6/2014 - The Current Market Sentiment

After it had found difficulty to get over 1.3678 resisting level, the single retreated again versus the greenback to be traded currently below 1.36 ahead of the release of April industrial productions of France and Italy.
The pair could rebound from 1.35 area twice last week one following the ECB’s easing package last Thursday and the second following the bullish release of US labor report of May which suggest more tightening steps to come by the Fed.
This divergence persisting between these 2 central banks can lead the direction of this pair in the coming period with no sign of a change yet.
Draghi has said last Thursday that the ECB has not finished yet and it is ready to react and the Fed’s recent minutes have shown discussions about raising the deposit interest rate with maintaining the reinvestment of maturing assets unchanged in the beginning of the tightening cycle and this is in the same time we see the deposit rate at -0.1% in EU.
As the ECB decided last Thursday to lower deposit rate by -0.1% from zero has been introduced since 5th of July 2012 with cutting of the refinancing interest rate by 0.1% to 0.15% for pushing up the inflation and stimulating the economy but without imposing a QE plan.
The ECB has decided to offer other LTRO rounds, despite the knowledge of that it takes longer time to reach the real economy and the ECB has mentioned in more than an opportunity in the first half of 2012 that it waits to see positive effects of the previous taken 2 rounds on the economy, after they could revive the banking during 2012 and the market was waiting too for a greater impact on the economy.
The LTRO has really given the banking sector a way to survive in real critical situation by providing low cost liquidity to fund its operations and sustain its financial position in easier conditions.
But it seemed not effective enough to spur growth as it has been to the banks which have found in it easier credit conditions while they have been in sack of its cheap liquidity to recover and get back the trust of the markets, while the sovereign yields of the EU peripheral countries were at record highs in critical time of the debt crisis.
That’s why the ECB went later in July 2012 to lower the deposit rate definitely to be zero to not pay for what’s more than Eur800b of the banks funds turning over every day at it to open a way to these funds to the economy.
So, the ECB has decided this time to take all possible measures on its mandate to drive the inflation up and spur investment at once avoiding the criticism of the QE and the discussions about the ECB mandates of intersecting in the financial markets or the countries directly by a QE which made the EU recovery lagged behind the pace of UK, US and even Japan which invented this way of stimulation for fighting the deflation which looms to the EU economy.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 23-06-2014, 03:15 PM   #86
walid
متداول نشيط
 
تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي 23/6/2014 - The Current Market Sentiment

The single currency is still trading under 1.36 versus the greenback undermined by the release of June EU manufacturing PMI Flash reading which came down to 51.9 while the consensus was referring to 52.2 from 53.4 in May and also by the falling of June EU Services PMI Flash reading which retreated to 52.8 while the market was waiting for rising to 53.3 from 53.2 in May driving June Flash EU Composite PMI down to 52.8 too while the median forecast was 53.5 as the same as May.

These data came also after unexpected drop of June Flash EU Consuming confidence index which has been released by the last week end to show falling to -7.4, while the consensus was referring to -6.5 from -7.1 in May to weigh down on EURUSD to plunge to 1.3564 before ending last week just below 1.36

The weekend has shown also another signal from the ECB Mario draghi that the ECB has not finished yet and it is to impose a QE plan can have what’s more than sovereign bonds buying, in the case of facing further retreating of the inflation and more need for stimulating the EU economic growth.

The ECB has decided this month to lower the deposit rate by -0.1% from zero has been introduced since July 2012 lowering the refinancing interest rate by 0.1% to 0.15% and in an unconventional way, it has decided to introduce 2 LTRO rounds next September and next December valued €400b and in what could be a step to the QE, the ECB managed to prepare for outright purchases of asset backed securities and also ended the sterilization of the SMP extending the fixed rate full allotment till the end of 2016.

The single currency has suffered after these decided measurements especially as Draghi has indicated during the press conference following the ECB meeting that the ECB has not finished yet and it can do what’s more weighing down on the bonds yields in the European secondary money market.

Last week, The Fed has sent a message to the market that it is not to start directly raising the interest rate following the end of the QE which will be lowered by the same measured way and also it has highlighted that there is no plans yet to cut its balance sheet even after the beginning of raining the interest rate which can be started with the hiking the deposit rate.

This message has put pressure on the greenback and drove US blue chips up with longer than expected stimulating period of time to be represented by the Fed.

EURGBP came under pressure and the cable could maintain a place over 1.70 getting use of these current monetary stances of the Fed and the ECB which could make the British pound outpace the EUR and USD especially, as the MPC meeting minutes of June have shown tendency to hiking the interest rate as long as there is accord among the members that the pace of tightening will be gradual while the labor market conditions are improving and the mortgage debt is growing with the houses prices building up.

The gold could be supported by the message which put pressure on the US treasuries yields to make the gold much more attractive as a safe haven to be traded currently above $1300 per ounce supported from another side by the growing political concerns in Iraq which fueled the energy prices which are also underpinned by low funding costs for longer period in US and also from another side by Russian Gasprom decision to trim sending Gas to Ukraine.









Kind Regards



FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

Mob: +20 12 2465 9143

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 31-07-2014, 02:46 PM   #87
walid
متداول نشيط
 
تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي 31/7/2014 - The Current Market Sentiment

The greenback is still looking well underpinned by the preliminary release of Q2 GDP which has shown that the Americans have not canceled their businesses but they have just delayed them to later time because of the bad weather in Q1 to see growth by 4% in Q2 while the market was waiting for 3% after shrinking by 2.9% has been revised to 2.1%.

The Fed decided as expected to taper again in QE month scale by $10b referring to the need of boosting jobs demand further despite the progress which has been achieved. The Fed has changed its language about the current inflation upside risks saying that it has been just less worried about the low inflation level.

The FOMC Member Plosser has dissented this message which came following the bullish Q2 GDP figure saying it ignored the current considerable economic improvement and it is not suitable forward guidance.

The Fed President of Philadelphia Charles Plosser had demonstrated before that the Fed is closer to hiking the interest rate than many others are anticipating telling also that the delaying of taking such appropriate tightening step can lower the Fed’s creditability.

The Fed has tried to tell in the same time that there are no worries about the economy as before but that was not enough for USD to rise further to come again under pressure by the end of the US session, after this message which has shown maintaining of the stance of wait and see which looked not suitable any more for many market participants who were waiting for reference to a tightening step or at least higher appreciation of the economic progress.



Kind Regards



FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

Mob: +20 12 2465 9143

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 17-08-2014, 02:38 AM   #88
sari606
متداول جديد
 
تاريخ التسجيل: Aug 2014
المشاركات: 25

 
افتراضي

The gold is trading now above the support line of 1302 so,

Upside Scenario: if the support line of 1302 holds, a rise to the levels of 1322, then 1333 could be seen.

Downside: Breaking below the suppport line of 1298 could push the metal down into the levels of 1287, then 1275.

Regards

Sari Alasiri
sari606 غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
قديم 19-08-2014, 02:08 PM   #89
walid
متداول نشيط
 
تاريخ التسجيل: May 2004
المشاركات: 848

 
افتراضي 19/8/2014 - The Current Market Sentiment

The pressure on the sterling returned back with lower inflation data over the consuming level and the producing level too, as the data have shown today that UK CPI retreated to 1.6% year on year in July while the market was expecting 1.8% from 1.9% in June.

UK PPI input prices slid by 1.6% y/y in July while the consensus was falling by 1.1% after slumping by 0.9% in June while the UK PPI out pout prices plummeted by 7.3% y/y and the expectations were referring to 6.5% slide after dropping by 4.5% in June.

While the concerns about the houses prices retreating have been underscored again today by rising of UK DCLG Housing price index by only 10.2% while the consensus was 11.2% from 10.5% in June, after Rightmove housing price index of August came in the beginning of the week to show monthly slide by 2.9% has been the biggest since December 2011 from -0.8% in July.

The sterling has been actually supported in the beginning of the new week by Careny’s Comments that it is not a condition for hiking rate to watch wages rising inflation Pressure in UK.

These comments in the weekend leaded the cable to open on a gap at 1.6715 as the market has been actually focusing on the wages inflation pressure in UK to the limit of dropping the cable following the release of July UK Labor report which has shown that the wages including the bonus the figure came down by 0.2% following rising up by 0.4% in the previous 3 months to May and also wages rising excluding the bonus in the previous 3 months to June by 0.6% from 0.9% in the previous 3 months to May, despite the falling of ILO unemployment rate to 6.4% in the previous 3m to June which is the lowest level since Dec 2009 from 6.5% in the precious 3m to May which has came in the same labor report.

The Cable could not rise for more than 1.6735 to start retreating to reach today until now 1.6633 on the dovish inflation figures of July which suggest longer holding of the interest rate in UK at the current low levels.

While the greenback has been actually supported across the broad by the US treasuries yields rebound which started in the beginning of this week before the release of US CPI which is expected to show yearly rising by 2% down from 2.1% in June.

While the market is waiting also for rebound today with the new housing figures of US in July, after the worries increased about it following June figures which have shown slide of the housing starts to 0.893m from 0.985m in May and also drop of the building permits to 0.963m with falling also of the new home sales to 0.406m while the market was waiting for 0.479 from 0.442m in May.






Kind Regards



FX Market Strategist

Walid Salah El Din

Mob: +20 12 2465 9143

E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

http://www.fx-recommends.com
walid غير متواجد حالياً   رد مع اقتباس
إضافة رد

مواقع النشر (المفضلة)

أدوات الموضوع

تعليمات المشاركة
لا تستطيع إضافة مواضيع جديدة
لا تستطيع الرد على المواضيع
لا تستطيع إرفاق ملفات
لا تستطيع تعديل مشاركاتك

BB code is متاحة
كود [IMG] متاحة
كود HTML معطلة

الانتقال السريع


الساعة الآن 12:10 AM. حسب توقيت مدينه الرياض

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.