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26-05-2006, 10:34 PM | #11 |
متداول نشيط
تاريخ التسجيل: Jan 2004
المشاركات: 676
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تحياتي ترايدر
من الربع الثالث من 2005 وارباح الشركات تتفوق على التوقعات ، بمعتى أننا مررنا بثلاث ارباع ونحن متماسكون ، اذا اتت ارباح الشركات للربع الثاني حسب لغتهم متأثرة قليلا بمعدلات الفائدة فهذا يعني تناغم واضح بين التوقعات والنمو ، ومزيدا من التأكيدات على قدرة الاقتصاديات على تحمل اسعار الطاقة والفائدة المتصاعدة ، وفي كل الأحوال(شيبان وول ستريت) يقولون السوق فوق منهم ورن بوفت والوعد 30 ديسمبر2006 |
01-06-2006, 10:18 PM | #12 |
مشرف الاسهم الامريكية
تاريخ التسجيل: Jan 2004
المشاركات: 1,262
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Fed Brief About this page | Print version
In depth analysis of Federal Reserve Policy. Archive Updated: 31-May-06 15:28 ET New in the Research Section: FOMC Fed Minutes Inconclusive but Consistent with June Hike The May FOMC minutes didn't offer much insight on the June 29 policy direction. They noted that "members were uncertain about how much, if any, further tightening would be needed after today's action". However, if inflation worsened -- as the back to back 0.3% gains in core inflation suggest -- some further policy firming could be required. With a full month of data ahead of the month-end decision the data-dependent conclusion is far from clear but sides with a June rate hike. The Committee agreed to emphasize that "the extent and timing of any such firming will depend importantly on the evolution of the economic outlook as implied by incoming information." Members debated the appropriate characterization of inflation expectations in the statement. The apparent pickup core inflation and longer-term expectations, while worrisome, was relatively small. They remained within the range seen over the past couple of years, and the increase could well reverse before long. Accordingly, it appeared appropriate to characterize inflation expectations again as "contained." The funds futures market clung to the idea that the Fed would respond to the recent inflation data with further policy firming. Obviously, an offset in the core inflation data released on June 14 carries the potential to reverse the policy expectations. Near the close the July contract priced in 74% probability for a quarter percent hike to a 5.25% policy rate at month end. The implied rates peak at November's 5.32% as the market begins to price in the potential for another hike after June 29. ============================= هناك احتمال ضعيف لرفع نسبة الفائدة لاجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي في اجتماعة القادم في 29-6-2006م الا في حالة واحده ان تسفر التقارير الاقتصادية عن نسبة في التضخم اكثر من 0.3% . وقد نرى ارتفاع في معدل سعر الفائدة ولكن بعد الاجتماع القادم . ================= يجب استغلال ارتفاع الاسواق وعدم النظر الى الا في التقارير الرسمية التي تصدر من اصحاب قرار الاقتصاد الامريكي فهي المحرك الوحيد لاتجاه الاسواق . =============== اهلين من نجد بصراحه وارن بوفت عقليه استثمارية تستحق كل الاحترام وانت تستحق كل التقدير =========== ترايدر |
05-06-2006, 10:30 PM | #13 |
مشرف الاسهم الامريكية
تاريخ التسجيل: Jan 2004
المشاركات: 1,262
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Fed Chairman Still Worried About Inflation
Monday June 5, 2:46 pm ET By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer Fed Chairman Still Worried About Inflation, Even Though Economic Growth Is Moderating WASHINGTON (AP) -- Even though the once barreling U.S. economy is now slowing down, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Monday called recent increases in inflation unwelcome and pledged to make sure surging energy prices don't make things worse. ADVERTISEMENT In deciding the Federal Reserve's next rate move in late June, Bernanke said the inflation outlook "will receive particular scrutiny." Fed policy-makers "will be vigilant" to ensure that the recent pattern of higher readings in core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, "is not sustained," he said in remarks prepared for an international monetary conference here. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrials slid 160 points as Bernanke's fresh warnings on inflation rattled investors. Bernanke offered his most extensive assessment of current economic conditions and the challenges facing Fed policy-makers. "With the economy now evidently in a period of transition, monetary policy must be conducted with great care and with close attention to the evolution of the economic outlook," Bernanke said. He stressed anew that future rate decisions will rely heavily on what economic barometers say about inflation and business activity. So far this year, inflation at the consumer level has been elevated in large part by rising energy prices, Bernanke said. As measured by the Consumer Price Index, "core" inflation -- which excludes food and energy prices -- rose at an annual rate of 3.2 percent over the last three months and 2.8 percent over the past six months. "These are unwelcome developments," he said. Fed policy-makers pay close attention to "core" inflation figures to get a better sense of how prices of lots of other goods and services are behaving. As these core measures have marched higher, economists have worried that surging energy prices are feeding into higher price tags for more and more items. Oil prices, which hit a record high of more than $75 a barrel, are hovering around $73 a barrel. Gasoline prices have climbed, topping $3 a gallon in some areas. To combat inflation, Fed policy-makers have boosted interest rates 16 times since June 2004. The Fed, which meets next on 28-29, has said that coming rate decisions will rely heavily on how barometers on economic activity and inflation look. Some economists believe the Fed will raise rates again at that time to blunt inflation. Others, however, think the Fed will leave rates alone, taking a pause in its two-year rate-raising campaign to assess economic conditions. The economy, which grew at a brisk 5.3 percent pace in the opening quarter of this year, is slowing to a more moderate pace, Bernanke said. Higher energy prices are playing a role by making some consumers more cautious in their spending. Another factor is a cooling housing market, he said. "The anticipated moderation of economic growth seems now to be under way," he declared. Private economists believe economic growth in the April-to-June quarter will probably clock in around a 2.5 percent pace or slightly better. Although consumers, who account for two-thirds of all economic activity, are showing signs of moderating their buying appetite, businesses on the other hand are spending and investing at a robust clip, Bernanke noted. He also pointed out that the slower job creation seen in recent months and an edging up in filings for unemployment benefits also are "consistent with the softening in the pace of overall economic activity that seems to be under way." Employers added just 75,000 jobs in May, the fewest in seven months. Job gains for March and April turned out to be lower than previously thought. =============== رئيس المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي بن برنانكي مازال قلق بشأن التصخم بالرغم من النمو المعتدل للاقتصاد الامريكي كما اشار بانه في حالة استمرار التضخم الى حين الاجتماع القادم في واخر شهر June فانه من المرجح ان يتم رفع معدل سعر الفائدة خلال هذا . هناك قلق بشأن اسعار الطاقة بالاضافة الى الارقام الاقتصادية في ظل تزايد حجم التضخم التي يعاني منها الاقتصاد الامريكي . ============ ترايدر |
05-06-2006, 10:30 PM | #14 |
مشرف الاسهم الامريكية
تاريخ التسجيل: Jan 2004
المشاركات: 1,262
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Fed Chairman Still Worried About Inflation
Monday June 5, 2:46 pm ET By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer Fed Chairman Still Worried About Inflation, Even Though Economic Growth Is Moderating WASHINGTON (AP) -- Even though the once barreling U.S. economy is now slowing down, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Monday called recent increases in inflation unwelcome and pledged to make sure surging energy prices don't make things worse. ADVERTISEMENT In deciding the Federal Reserve's next rate move in late June, Bernanke said the inflation outlook "will receive particular scrutiny." Fed policy-makers "will be vigilant" to ensure that the recent pattern of higher readings in core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, "is not sustained," he said in remarks prepared for an international monetary conference here. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrials slid 160 points as Bernanke's fresh warnings on inflation rattled investors. Bernanke offered his most extensive assessment of current economic conditions and the challenges facing Fed policy-makers. "With the economy now evidently in a period of transition, monetary policy must be conducted with great care and with close attention to the evolution of the economic outlook," Bernanke said. He stressed anew that future rate decisions will rely heavily on what economic barometers say about inflation and business activity. So far this year, inflation at the consumer level has been elevated in large part by rising energy prices, Bernanke said. As measured by the Consumer Price Index, "core" inflation -- which excludes food and energy prices -- rose at an annual rate of 3.2 percent over the last three months and 2.8 percent over the past six months. "These are unwelcome developments," he said. Fed policy-makers pay close attention to "core" inflation figures to get a better sense of how prices of lots of other goods and services are behaving. As these core measures have marched higher, economists have worried that surging energy prices are feeding into higher price tags for more and more items. Oil prices, which hit a record high of more than $75 a barrel, are hovering around $73 a barrel. Gasoline prices have climbed, topping $3 a gallon in some areas. To combat inflation, Fed policy-makers have boosted interest rates 16 times since June 2004. The Fed, which meets next on 28-29, has said that coming rate decisions will rely heavily on how barometers on economic activity and inflation look. Some economists believe the Fed will raise rates again at that time to blunt inflation. Others, however, think the Fed will leave rates alone, taking a pause in its two-year rate-raising campaign to assess economic conditions. The economy, which grew at a brisk 5.3 percent pace in the opening quarter of this year, is slowing to a more moderate pace, Bernanke said. Higher energy prices are playing a role by making some consumers more cautious in their spending. Another factor is a cooling housing market, he said. "The anticipated moderation of economic growth seems now to be under way," he declared. Private economists believe economic growth in the April-to-June quarter will probably clock in around a 2.5 percent pace or slightly better. Although consumers, who account for two-thirds of all economic activity, are showing signs of moderating their buying appetite, businesses on the other hand are spending and investing at a robust clip, Bernanke noted. He also pointed out that the slower job creation seen in recent months and an edging up in filings for unemployment benefits also are "consistent with the softening in the pace of overall economic activity that seems to be under way." Employers added just 75,000 jobs in May, the fewest in seven months. Job gains for March and April turned out to be lower than previously thought. =============== رئيس المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي بن برنانكي مازال قلق بشأن التصخم بالرغم من النمو المعتدل للاقتصاد الامريكي كما اشار بانه في حالة استمرار التضخم الى حين الاجتماع القادم في واخر شهر June فانه من المرجح ان يتم رفع معدل سعر الفائدة خلال هذا الاجتماع . هناك قلق بشأن اسعار الطاقة بالاضافة الى الارقام الاقتصادية في ظل تزايد حجم التضخم التي يعاني منها الاقتصاد الامريكي . ============ ترايدر |
07-06-2006, 12:17 AM | #15 |
متداول نشيط
تاريخ التسجيل: May 2005
المشاركات: 427
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مشرفنا ترايدر خلال ثلاث سنوات كم مره رفعت الفائده على الدولار
أو بالأصح كم كانت في عام 2001 إلى الآن |
07-06-2006, 12:21 AM | #16 |
متداول نشيط
تاريخ التسجيل: May 2005
المشاركات: 427
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ما صار لهم شهر رافعين الفائده
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08-06-2006, 04:21 PM | #17 |
مشرف الاسهم الامريكية
تاريخ التسجيل: Jan 2004
المشاركات: 1,262
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اهلين اخي الكريم هامور البلاد
من عام 2001الى الان منتصف عام 2006م ارتفعت 16 مره بواقع ربع نقطه وكانت في عام 2001 1% طبعاً كل شئ وارد في حالة قياس التضخم وفق المعايير الخاصة بالتقارير الاقتصادية ولكن المحلليين يستبعدون ان يكون هناك رفع لمعدل سعر الفائدة في الاجتماع القادم . ============ ترايدر |
09-06-2006, 02:58 PM | #18 |
متداول نشيط
تاريخ التسجيل: May 2005
المشاركات: 427
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في 3 يناير 2001 خفض سعر الفائدة على الدولار بمقدار 0.5% ليصبح 6%
أيااام رئيس البنك الفيدرالي " آلان جرينسبان" مما يعني أنه كان 6% في الشهر الأول من السنه هل يعني انه قام بتخفيض النسبه من 6% إلى 1% خلال أشهر أرجو التوضيح وشكراً لك مره أخرى |
09-06-2006, 04:36 PM | #19 | |
مشرف الاسهم الامريكية
تاريخ التسجيل: Jan 2004
المشاركات: 1,262
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اقتباس:
اهلين اخي الكريم هامور البلاد في ثاني رد في الموضوع الاقتباس بعاليه . تقرير من New - Yahoo! Finance نص وتاريخ ووقت التاريخ كما هو بعاليه كان معدل سعر الفائدة 4.5% وفي حالة رفع ربع نقطه ستصل الى 4.75% وهو الارتفاع الخامس عشر على التوالي من شهر ابريل عام 2001م حسب التقرير بعاليه (اللون الاحمر) . وفي 10ماي ارتفع معدل سعر الفائدة بواقع ربع نقطه لتصل الى 5% ويعتبر الارتفاع السادس عشر على التوالي حسب التقرير المرفق مع الشارت بعاليه . ====== هذا تقرير من بريفنق يذكر بما نصه انه في حالة ارتفاع معدل سعر الفائدة في الاجتماع القادم في 28-29/6/2006م يعتبر السابع عشر على التوالي (اللون الاحمر). وجميع التقارير التي يعتمد عليها ترايدر هي اما من بريفنق او New - Yahoo! Finance باعتبارهما افضل مصادر الاخبار عن السوق الامريكي على الاطلاق . نص التقرير ============= Updated: 10-May-06 16:56 ET Fed's Flexibility for June Policy Direction The Fed's policy making committee -- the FOMC -- came through with the 25 bp hike in the overnight policy rate expected. The federal funds policy rate is now targeted at 5% as the discount rate has been set higher at 6%. The wording of the policy statement left the door wide open for the FOMC to either pull the policy trigger for a 17th consecutive time at the June 28-29 FOMC meeting or pause to assess the effects on the economy. Given the strength of the economy Briefing.com assumes that rate hike(s) would return after a pause. The policy statement noted Fed expectations for growth to moderate given the cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices. However, the Fed remains keenly aware of the inflation risks. The outlook stated 'that some further policy firming may yet be needed to address inflation risks but emphasizes that the extent and timing of any such firming will depend importantly on the evolution of the economic outlook as implied by incoming information'. The translation is simply that the policy makers don't have a clear pre-disposition for the meeting 7 weeks away and will depend on the economic releases in making that June 29 policy decision. The minutes from the meeting released May 31 may provide the substance of any debate among the FOMC members just as the minutes from the March meeting noted that 'most members thought that the end of the tightening process was likely to be near as some expressed concerns about the dangers of tightening too much...' Fed Chairman Bernanke has already been clear that forward policy direction is dependent on the economic data as a pause in the tightening may only interrupt the rate hikes rather than end them. Historically, Fed tightening cycles have ended when the policy rate reached levels of 6% or higher which stalled the economy. Given the current conditions of contained core inflation, the Fed doesn't want to make the mistake of going too far. From here the policy outlook depends chiefly on core inflation growth and the extent of resource utilization, energy and commodity prices which help drive inflation ==================== اخي الكريم المرفق بعاليه نص تقارير بالساعة واليوم والشهر والسنه . وعملية ارتفاع وانخفاض معدل سعر الفائدة شئ وارد حسب سياسية المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي ونظرته تجاه التضخم المصاحب للاقتصاد الامريكي . ============= ترايدر . |
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09-06-2006, 07:56 PM | #20 |
متداول نشيط
تاريخ التسجيل: May 2005
المشاركات: 427
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لا أعلم عن موضوع سعر الفائده شيء ولكن بالصدفه قرأت مقال لأحد الإقتصاديين العرب وبين ذلك
قد تكون مصادرك أدق بحكم خبرتك ماشاء الله شكراً لك مره أخرى |
مواقع النشر (المفضلة) |
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