اجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي واحتمال زيادة معدل سعر الفائدة ربع نقطه

[ترايدر]

Updated: 28-Mar-06 08:34 ET


08:34 ET

Fed Day :
The Fed will announce a 1/4% hike in the fed funds rate target to 4 3/4% this afternoon at about 2:15 ET. They will also release their policy statement at that time.

The stock market is likely to be very stable up until the announcement. It could be very volatile afterwards.

There are expectations that the Fed will change the wording of the announcement to signal that the end of the current round of rate hikes will soon be ending. In fact, they might change the wording slightly. New Fed Chairman Bernanke may prefer a different wording.

Any change won't be significant, however. The Fed doesn't know for sure how many more rate hikes are coming, so it is impossible for them to provide a clear signal to the market. The end is certainly coming closer with each move, but changing a word from "may be needed" to "might be needed" is not some cryptic code that actually means just one more rate hike. It will depend on the trends in the economy and inflation in the months ahead.

There is no hidden plan that will be revealed to those who can break the Fed's code words.

The recent data hasn't changed enough for the Fed to signal any great change in approach. The economy remains strong, and inflation is steady. In fact, there is an argument that conditions have worsened and that Fed needs to remain aggressive. The previous policy statement said, "possible increases in resource utilization as well as elevated energy prices have the potential to add to inflationary pressures."

If that phrase is in the statement again, it means the Fed is concerned that tight labor and industrial market conditions need to be addressed. Hourly earnings and core PPI have picked up recently as unemployment remains low and capacity utilization is rising.

The market is fully capable of over-analyzing the policy statement. Our belief is that the Fed currently expects that, depending on the data, they will need to raise rates at least one more, and possibly two more times.

The only other major news this morning is that oil is up this morning and pushing $65 a barrel. It is starting to re-emerge as a market concern. -- Dick Green, Briefing.com.




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سيكون اجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي في ظل رئيسه الجديد بن برنانكي، اليوم الثلاثاء الموافق 28-3-2006م في تمام الساعة 2.15 ظهراً بتوقيت نيويورك واحتمال ان يسفر الاجتماع عن زيادة معدل سعر الفائدة ربع نقطه لتصل بذلك الى 4.75 نقطه .
من المتوقع ان يكون تداول السوق الى حين الاجتماع يشوبه نوع من الحذر لترقب زيادة معدل سعر الفائدة ليأخذ السوق المسار الصحيح بعد الاعلان المرتقب كما سيتم خلال الاجتماع الاعلان عن زيادات قادمه او الاكتفاء بمعدل سعر الفائدة الحالي التي بدأت بالارتفاع من عام 2004م ثمان مرات بواقع ربع نقطه البيان الذي سيصدر اليوم الثلاثاء ويأتي عقب اجتماعات "الاحتياطي الفيدرالي" السابقة سيكون هو المُحرك الرئيسي للسوق ورغبات المُستثمرين، إنه البوصلة التي تُحدد اتجاه الجميع، ففي كل مرة يزداد ارتباط المُستثمرين بمصير الفائدة أكثر من ذي قبل، فالجميع يظن أن رفع الفائدة قد انتهى وأنه اقترب زوال الضغوط المالية التي تفرضها سياسة رفع الفائدة على أرباح الشركات وتكاليف تشغيلها، لذا فإنه في حالة صدور مفاجأة إيجابية في كلام المحافظ فإن السوق سيقفز بشكل قوي ولا يُستبعد حدوث ارتفاع سريع Rally.

إذن سيقود السوق في بداية الأسبوع بيان البنك المركزي ثم سيتولى من بعده القيادة عدد من البيانات الاقتصادية المهمة، حيث فسيصدر يوم الثلاثاء مؤشر ثقة المُستهلك لشهر آذار (مارس)، الذي يُتوقع له أن يرتفع إلى 102 بعد أن كان 101.7 في شباط (فبراير)، أما يوم الخميس سيصدر معدل الناتج المحلي عن الربع الرابع بصورته النهاية ليصل حسب التوقعات إلى 1.7 في المائة بعد أن وصل إلى 1.6 في المائة.

أيضاً ستستمر البيانات والمؤشرات الاقتصادية في الصدور حتى يوم الجمعة، وأهمها بيان عن حجم دخل الفرد وإنفاقه. توقعات الاقتصاديين تتحدث عن ارتفاع في دخل الفرد بنسبة 0.4 في المائة مقارنة بالنمو 0.7 في المائة في شباط (فبراير) الماضي، بينما على النقيض يُتوقع انخفاض إنفاقه 0.1 في المائة بعد أن كان 0.9 في المائة في شباط (فبراير) الماضي، كما يجب التنويه ان سعر البترول وصل في تعاملات هذا الصباح الى سعر
65$.[/FONT]

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ترايدر

[ahmadalmalki]

جزاك الله خير على التنبيه
وياليت تعطينا الاخبار اول باول وتأثيرها على السوق
بارك الله فيك

[moosab52]

السلام عليكم

اخي العزيز تراير مشكور على هذه المعلومه

والمعلومه الاهم راقب قطاع المعادن وخاصه الفضه منه للاسابيع القادمه

مجرد فضه فقط

[ترايدر]

المشاركة الأصلية كتبت بواسطة moosab52

السلام عليكم

اخي العزيز تراير مشكور على هذه المعلومه

والمعلومه الاهم راقب قطاع المعادن وخاصه الفضه منه للاسابيع القادمه

مجرد فضه فقط

=============
اخي الكريم
القطاعات التي لاتتأثر بالتضخم وبالتالي من ارتفاع معدل سعر الفائدة في حالة كون الاقتراض بفائدة = صفر فهي على النحو التالي :
القطاعات الاقل تأثير
Industry: Department Stores
Industry: Drugs - Generic
Industry: Restaurants
القطاعات المستفيده
Industry: Investment Brokerage - National

==============

ترايدر

[ترايدر]

AP
Fed Boosts Key Interest Rate for 15th Time
Tuesday March 28, 3:10 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Fed Boosts Key Interest Rate to Highest in Five Years; Officials Leave Door Open for More Hikes


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve on Tuesday boosted a key interest rate to the highest level in five years as new Chairman Ben Bernanke followed the Alan Greenspan inflation-fighting formula.
The action, the 15th consecutive quarter-point move, left the federal funds rate at 4.75 percent, its highest level since April 2001.

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Fed officials, who were holding their first interest rate meeting under Bernanke, left the door open for further rate increases although private economists believe only one or two more rate hikes are likely.

The quarter-point rate hike had been widely expected. Bernanke has emphasized since being chosen by President Bush that he planned to continue Greenspan's approach toward setting interest rates. That approach was characterized by baby steps aimed at giving markets and investors plenty of time to adjust.

"Mr. Bernanke has chosen incrementalism over radical change in his first meeting," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, a consulting firm.

"There is no fundamental change from Mr. Greenspan," said David Jones, chief economist at DMJ Advisors, another firm.

Jones said the only small difference was in an expanded paragraph that went into greater detail about the Fed's views on how the economy is performing.

The Fed said economic growth had "rebounded strongly" and the run-up in the price of energy and other commodities had had only a "modest effect on core inflation."

Jones predicted the Fed would raise rates one more time to 5 percent and then stop.

On Wall Street, investors pushed stocks lower following the Fed announcement, expressing disappointment that the central bank did not send a stronger signal that the rate hikes would be ending soon.

The Fed's latest move will mean higher interest rates for both consumers and businesses. KeyCorp was the first bank to announce it was raising its prime lending rate by a similar quarter-point to 7.75 percent. The prime is the benchmark for millions of business and consumer loans.

In its statement, the Fed sounded at an upbeat note about the current business climate, saying "economic growth has rebounded strongly in the current quarter but appears likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace."

The statement retained language used last time that "some further policy firming may be needed." That was seen by financial markets as a signal that further rate hikes could occur.

When the central bank began tightening credit conditions in June 2004, the prime rate stood at 4 percent and so did the federal funds rate, both the lowest levels since the late 1950s when Dwight D. Eisenhower was president.

Those unusually low levels were reached as the central bank beginning in 2001 worked to protect the economy from the blows dealt by a bursting stock market bubble, the 2001 recession, terrorist attacks and a prolonged period of job losses even after the economy began to recover in November of that year.

The Fed's goal has been to reach a point where interest rates are neither stimulating nor depressing economic growth.

Many analysts believe the Fed is very close to that level but may feel the need to push the funds rate up one more time to 5 percent from moving to the sidelines for the rest of the year.

However, other analysts who are more worried about inflation pressures say the Fed may feel the need to boost rates not only at the next meeting on May 10 but also at perhaps two more meetings after that, leaving the funds rate at 5.5 percent.

Greenspan retired after 18 1/2 years at the Fed. Bernanke was nominated by Bush to succeed him. Bernanke had been an economics professor at Princeton specializing in monetary policy before serving as a Fed board member from 2002 to 2003 when Bush tapped him to be chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.



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تم رفع معدل سعر الفائدة بواقع ربع نقطه لتصل الى 4.75 % ويعتبر الارتفاع الخامس عشر منذ عام 2001م
كما المح رئيس المصرف الفدرالي ان قد تكون امامنا زياده لمره او مرتين بواقع ربع نقطه وانه ماضي في سياسه جرينسبان الرئيس السابق للمصرف الفدرالي للحد من التضخم كما ان ثقه الرئيس بوش فيه تقتضي الاسراع في حل المشاكل الاقتصادية التي قد تعترض الاقتصاد الامريكي الا ان المفيد في هذا الاجتماع انه صرح بان الاقتصاد الامريكي عاد الى حالة الطبيعية وبقوه رغم تأثير اسعار الطاقة والسلع التي اثرت بشكل بسيط على التضخم .
كما المح ان قد تصل معدل سعر الفائدة الى 5 % وقد تتوقف مما اثر على اداء المستثمرين بشكل عام كونه لم يعطي اشارة قويه الى توقف سعر الفائدة بشكل نهائي كما انه ركز الى ان الفقاعة التي صاحبت احداث الحادي عشر من سبتمر من عام 2001م لن تكرر حفاظا على نمو الاقتصاد الامريكي بشكل اسرع خلال هذا الربع كونه عاد بقوه الى حالته الطبيعه ويتوقع ان يتسارع بشكل اكبر خلال هذا الربع مع الحد على التضخم بشكل متوازن .
كما توقع محللون ان تكون الزيادة القادمه بربع نقطه في 10 مايو القادم وقد تصل في نهاية العام الى 5.5% .
ويشعر بعض المحلليين بالقلق ازاء ضغوط التضخم .
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بقيه التقرير عباره عن سيرته الذاتيه بشكل مختصر متخصص في السياسة النقديه عمل في لجنة المصرف الفدرالي من عام 2002-2003 وبعدها تم تعيينه كبير الاقتصاديين في البيت الابيض من قبل بوش وبعد احالة جرينسبان الى التقاعد تم تعيينه خلفه عنه .
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ترايدر

[ترايدر]

Fed Brief About this page | Print version

In depth analysis of Federal Reserve Policy. Archive



Updated: 08-May-06 12:51 ET

New in the Research Section: FOMC

Rate Hike Wednesday but June Unclear


The Fed's policy making committee -- the FOMC -- meets Wednesday as expectations are united for a 25 bp hike in the overnight policy rate to 5%. By noting 'that some further policy firming may be needed' in the March policy statement the forward policy read was set as Fedspeak never debated the markets' expectation.

The tone provided by the May policy statement will provide a read on the direction of policy rates at the June and forward meetings. The minutes from the March meeting included that 'most members thought that the end of the tightening process was likely to be near as some expressed concerns about the dangers of tightening too much...' Fed Chairman Bernanke has been clear that forward policy direction is dependent on the economic data as a pause in the tightening may only interrupt the rate hikes rather than end them.

Briefing.com expects the Fed to craft a statement which is non-committal on June policy direction which will leave some frustration from the market which now presumes transparency on future direction. The truth is that a neutral statement with an inflation bias (given risks) would be quite upfront as the policy makers want to assess the need for further rate hikes given the lagged effects of policy adjustment on the economy. When the policy rate reached 6%+ levels in past tightening cycles the economy stalled. The Fed doesn't need or want to short circuit the strong economy.

Only 5 of the 22 primary dealers currently expect a June hike in the policy rate as the other 77% expect a June pause. A small majority (59%) expects 2006 to end with a 5% or lower policy rate as the 41% expecting a higher year-end rate only include one or two added hikes.

The funds futures market reflects those market expectations with a 25 bp hike fully priced in for Wednesday. The July contract currently argues for a pause given the no-go 40% probability for a June 29 hike at the FOMC meeting. However, the August contract currently prices in 92% probability for a return to a 25 bp hike to a 5.25% policy rate at the August 8 policy meeting. The extended contracts are quite volatile and will respond to the policy statement, Fedspeak and the key economic data

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سيكون اجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي في ظل رئيسه الجديد بن برنانكي، غداً الاربعاء الموافق 10-5-2006م ومن المحتمل ان يسفر الاجتماع عن زيادة معدل سعر الفائدة ربع نقطه لتصل بذلك الى5 % .

من المتوقع ان يكون تداول السوق الى حين الاجتماع يشوبه نوع من الحذر لترقب زيادة معدل سعر الفائدة ليأخذ السوق المسار الصحيح بعد الاعلان المرتقب كما سيتم خلال الاجتماع الاعلان عن زيادات قادمه او الاكتفاء بمعدل سعر الفائدة الحالي التي بدأت بالارتفاع من عام 2004م 9مرات بواقع ربع نقطه البيان الذي سيصدر غدا الاربعاء ويأتي بعد اجتماعات "الاحتياطي الفيدرالي" سيكون هو المُحرك الرئيسي للسوق ورغبات المُستثمرين،وهو البوصلة التي تُحدد اتجاه المستثمرين ، ففي كل مرة يزداد ارتباط المُستثمرين بمصير الفائدة أكثر من ذي قبل، فالجميع يظن أن رفع الفائدة قد ينتهي وأنه اقترب زوال الضغوط المالية التي تفرضها سياسة رفع الفائدة على أرباح الشركات وتكاليف تشغيلها، لذا فإنه في حالة صدور مفاجأة إيجابية في كلام المحافظ فإن السوق سيقفز بشكل قوي كردة فعل ايجابية طبعا كمستثمرين في الاسواق الامريكية نتمنى ان يتم الاشارة الى التحسن في الاسواق الامريكية وتحديد اتجاه الكوارتر القادم حتى وان تم رفع معدل سعر الفائدة كما حدث في الاجتماع الماضي .

مع التنبيه انه في حالة نزول اي شركة تمتلكه بدون اي اخبار عن الشركة فهذا شئ طبيعي جدا نظراً لترقب الاسواق لنتائج هذا الاجتماع .
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ترايدر

[ترايدر]

Page One About this page | Print version

Synopsis of Briefing.com's analysis. Archive



Updated: 10-May-06 08:19 ET


08:19 ET

Fed Day Finally Arrives:
The market is still on Fed watch. The S&P was up less than 1 point yesterday after about a 1 point decline on Monday. S&P futures suggest a near flat open this morning.

The stability will end after the Fed policy statement this afternoon at about 2:15 ET. Another 1/4% hike in the fed funds rate target to 5% is assumed. The big issue will be the wording of the policy statement and whether that implies that the Fed is concerned about continued strong economic growth and associated inflationary pressures, or whether a "pause" is likely.

The Fed may indeed indicate that they are inclined to not raise rates at the June 29 meeting based on current conditions. They may deem it prudent to take some time to assess the impact of previous rate hikes. However, they won't paint themselves into a corner. They need the flexibility to react to incoming data, whatever it may be, and that next meeting is a full seven weeks away. The statement won't provide any guarantees.



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سيكون الاجتماع في تمام الساعة 2.15 بتوقيت نيويورك في هذا اليوم الاربعاء الموافق 10-5- 2006 م
و من المحتمل ان يتم رفع معدل سعر الفائدة بربع نقطه خلال هذا الاجتماع
وسيكون الاجتماع القادم في 29-6-2006 م بعد سبع اسابيع من الان ومن المحتمل ان لايتم رفع سعر الفائدة خلال الاجتماع القادم .
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ترايدر

[ترايدر]

ed Leaves Door Open for Further Hikes
Wednesday May 10, 4:10 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Federal Reserve Raises Key Interest Rate to 5 Percent, Leaves Door Open for Further Rate Hikes


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised a key interest rate to the highest level in more than five years and signaled it may pause to assess the impact of its string of rate hikes. However, the Fed also left the door open for further rate increases.
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The Fed boosted its target for the federal funds rate to 5 percent. The funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, stood at a 46-year low of 1 percent when the central bank began raising rates in June 2004 to keep inflation under control.

In its statement announcing the decision, Fed policymakers indicated they may take at least a brief pause in pushing rates up further. It said the "extent and timing" of further rate increases would depend on future economic data.

Analysts said they read the new wording as a strong signal that the central bank will not raise rates at the next meeting on June 28-29. But analysts also said that if the economy does not slow as the Fed is forecasting, then the central bank will hike rates one or possibly two more times later this year.

"The most likely outlook is that they will pause at the June meeting, but if growth does not slow this summer, they will be tightening by August," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.

Wall Street, which had been hoping the Fed would state more plainly that it could be finished raising rates, expressed disappointment with the new statement. Stocks widened their losses after the midafternoon announcement.

The Fed's rate hikes have raised the borrowing costs for millions of Americans on everything from adjustable rate home mortgages to auto loans.

Commercial banks quickly followed the Fed announcement by raising their prime rate, the benchmark for many consumer and business loans, to a five-year high of 8 percent.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had raised expectations that the central bank was getting ready to pause when he told Congress on April 27 that the central bank might take a break for "one or more meetings."

Bernanke, who succeeded the legendary Alan Greenspan as Fed chairman on Feb. 1, said a pause would give the central bank time to assess the impact that its long string of rate increases was having on the economy.

In the statement announcing Wednesday's rate increase, the Fed said some further hikes "may yet be needed." That marked a slight modification from the March statement when it said further rate increases "may be needed."

It added another phrase in the latest statement saying that "the extent and timing of any such firming will depend importantly on the evolution of the economic outlook as implied by incoming information."

Bernanke had created confusion about the exact meaning of his congressional remarks when he was quoted by CNBC as saying that financial markets had misread his congressional testimony.

That comment came after bond prices, always sensitive to inflation worries, had fallen on fears that Bernanke would not be as tough as Greenspan in fighting inflation.

Private economists are split over whether Wednesday's rate hike will be the last for awhile or whether the Fed may pause for one or two meetings and then raise rates another one or two times to make sure that a recent jump in energy prices does not create more widespread inflation problems.

In assessing the current state of the economy, the Fed's brief statement tracked the comments Bernanke had made to the Joint Economic Committee.

The statement said that while economic growth had been "quite strong so far this year," the central bank still expected growth would moderate to a more sustainable pace, "partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices."

The overall economy grew at a sizzling pace of 4.8 percent in the first three months of this year, the fastest spurt for the gross domestic product in 2 1/2 years. But private forecasters believe growth has slowed in the current quarter, reflecting in part rising mortgage rates, which have dampened home sales.

On inflation, the Fed said the surge in energy prices so far had had "only a modest effect on core inflation" with inflation expectations remaining contained.

The statement noted a unanimous vote for the quarter-point increase in the funds rate.



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بالفعل تم رفع معدل سعر الفائدة الى ربع نقطه لتصل بذلك الى 5% وهي الاعلى منذ خمس سنوات .
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يتوقع المحلليين ان الاجتماع القادم في 29-6-2006 م بعد سبع اسابيع من الان لن يتم رفع معدل سعر الفائدة
كما توقعوا ان تكون امامنا ارتفاع لمره او مرتين بواقع ربع نقطه خلال هذا العام 2006م .

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ترايدر

[MWAFFAQ]

هل نفهم من ذلك أن رفع معدل سعر الفائدة ذو علاقة عكسية مع أسواق الأسهم الأمريكية، إذا أرتفع معدل سعر الفائدة إنخفض السوق والعكس صحيح؟

شكراً أخي ترايدر

[ترايدر]

Updated: 26-May-06 08:49 ET


08:49 ET

The Fears Abate Further:
Stock futures jumped this morning on an as-expected economic report. That reflects the fact that excessive fears had crept into the market and are now being squeezed out.

The April core PCE was up 0.2%. That was in line with most forecasts, but after a 0.3% reading in March, and back-to-back core CPI gains of 0.3%, there were concerns that another 0.3% gain would spark inflation fears. The market was extremely sensitive to these releases the past few months and took a dive at times when the inflation reports were poor.

It isn't as if a 0.2% monthly reading on inflation is bullish. That translates into roughly a 2.4% annual rate. The April increase also pushed the year-over-year increase in the core PCE to 2.1% from 2.0% in March. That is above the Fed's forecast of 1 3/4% to 2% for all of 2006. It isn't a great number.

Yet, because it wasn't a worse number, stock futures have jumped. The same thing happened yesterday on mixed data in the GDP report. After the sharp sell-off, for the time being - no bad news is good news.

This confirms our view that the market outlook is neutral, and not bearish. The market had gotten overly pessimistic, just as it was overly optimistic in April. Stock prices have been reacting to sentiment and undergoing normal fluctuations that happen in every market. Every day, there were reports that the market was up/down due to commodities, economic releases, whatever. It was the type of noise that individual investors need to ignore.

In reality, the fundamentals haven't changed much at all over the past two months. The economy and earnings growth will slow in the second half of the year in response to rising interest rates. Inflation may firm, but it won't get out of control. The summer months could be difficult, but stocks should end higher on the year. -- Dick Green

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بدأت الاسواق تهدئ من مخاوفها من التضخم حيث قفزت اسعار الاسهم المستقبليه بشكل متوقع والذي يعكس الحقيقة
في ابريل كان PCE (مقياس التضخم) 0.2% كما هو متوقع من الكثير من المحلليين ولكن في مارس وصلت الى 0.3% مما اثار كثير من مخاوف التضخم وكانت الاسواق حساسة نتيجة هذا الرقم خلال الاشهر القليلة الماضية حيث ان النسبة التي تم قياسها في ابريل 0.2% تعتبر شرسه جدا حيث انها ترفع المعدل السنوي إلى 2.4 % حيث دفع هذا القراءة في مارس من 0.2% إلى 2.1% مما دعى المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي الاتجاه في رفع نسبة الفائدة لعام 2006م من
1.75% إلى 2% بزيادة ربع نقطة عن المتوقع ، حيث حدث نفس الشئ في البيانات المختلطة امس GPD مجمل الناتج القومي حيث قفزت الاسهم المستقبلية باعتبار ذلك اخبار جيده وليست سيئة .

كانت وجه نظر السوق محايدة وليست للانخفاض (بالنسة لمعدل سعر الفائدة) حيث اصبحت السوق متشائمة جدا عكس ماكانت عليه في ابريل من التفائل وهذا يحدث في جميع الاسواق حيث تتقلب اسعار الاسهم حسب تغير ارقام التقارير الاقتصادية

في الواقع الاساسيات لم يحدث فيها اي تغيير في الشهرين الماضيين بشكل كبير حيث ان( نمو المداخيل والاقتصاد سيتباطآن في الربع الثاني) من عام 2006م ردا على ارتفاع معدل سعر الفائدة ولازالت الاسواق تعاني من التضخم ولكنه لن يخرج عن السيطرة وقد تعاني الاسواق خلال هذا الصيف ولكنها ستغلق في نهاية العام على ارتفاع .
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