Trading Tips from 21 to 30

[walid]

The Fed's appreciation of the growth needs and the current benign inflation forces in US was obvious in Bernenke's testifying which has shown that the Fed will endure as much as it can for stimulating growth hoping for tame inflation to do expecting that it will be well contained over the long term getting over the current rising of commodities and energy prices.
The greenback came under pressure across the broad from this talking which ensured the Fed's keeping of its QE policy as long as it can expecting the labor market to take years to get over the current struggling phase of low growth rates can not give the trust to the employer to add more jobs.
Dow could make a new year high again at 12254 but it has closed adding just 6 points as there was no clear direction in the US equities markets after creeping up in the recent period underpinned by easing of tension in Egypt could bring back confidence in risky assets, After the Egyptian street has found in changing the leaders of the national democratic ruling party an open door for discussions with all parties in Egypt even the Muslim brothers lightening the pressure on Mubarak from US and Europe to quit immediately in a fast way can put Egypt in mysterious ways. It looks currently that he is the best to reform as he is leaving anyway and modifying the constitution of the presidency terms fulfilling the demands of change in the rest time of his leading will not take advantages from him. It was a smart move even it was not directly required this time by the uprising crowd but this does not object that the position is still open in Egypt.
The European equities markets are still following the US market having a quit session after it could cover too the losses of the credit crisis which reached its bottom on 9 March 2009 after aggressive falling of the assets prices has been triggered by the collapse mortgage market in US threating the creditability of its financial sector with the bankruptcy of Lehman brothers.
While the Asian stocks indexes are still under pressure from the unexpected Chinese decision of hiking the yearly lending rate by 25 basis points to 6.06% from 5.81% for curbing the inflation accumulating pressure at the current high oil and commodities prices which can lower the demand outlook of them and also the Australian dollar and New Zealand Dollar too as the nearest commodities markets to china.
The single currency came under pressure this week again by the falling of December germane industrial productions by 1.5% while they were expected to be up by .2% from decreasing by .6% in November and these dovish data came a day after the falling of Germany factory orders by 3.4% monthly in December from gaining 5.4% in November while the market was waiting for shrinking by 1.4% to show easing of the demand of capital good from Germany which can slow the growth of it. The single currency has been already undermined by last week Trichet's comments which have referred to moderate inflation upside risks over the long term after the ECB decision to keep the interest rate unchanged to reducing the market discounting of having a close interest rate hike for fighting the inflation after Jan EU CPI which has reached 2.4% y/y well above the 2% target of the ECB and so the single currency could not have the ability to fight for having a place above 1.379 versus the greenback breaking below 1.358 and it is now trading above 1.36 after finding support just above 1.35 psychological level but the breaking of this level can open the way for testing 1.335 then 1.326 and the falling of this level too can open the door for 1.309 and then the recent bottom of the pair at 1.287 level where it could rebound from by repeated Portuguese denying of the need for this made package by European countries and the IMF and the Japanese promises of buying European bonds this month could help it to rebounds fueled by markets cheeriness of successful bonds auctions in Portugal , Spain and Italy underpinned by The ECB members appreciation of building inflation pressure in the Euro zone which drove the pair up to 1.386 by their recent meeting.
The single could get over 1.37 after it could rebound with the recovery of the investors' risk appetite at 1.3505 versus the greenback earlier this week which is still supported by the rising of the treasuries yields and the increased demand for borrowing while the US economy is looking better in the recent months despite the struggling of its labor market as we have seen by the end of last week the release of US Jan non-farm payroll adding just 36k while the market was waiting for 150k jobs to be added with declining of the unemployment rate to 9% from 9.4% while the market was waiting for rising to 9.6% but since the strong release of January ISM Manufacturing index which jumped to 60.8 while the market was waiting for 58.2 from 58.5 in December the confidence in the US economy is getting momentum adding to the gains of its dividends driving the treasuries yields up reinforcing the business spending trust which has been tempered recently by the concerns about the geopolitical situation in the middle east worrying about the oil supplies from the Arabian rich countries of oil through the Suez channel after the tensions have extended into Egypt brining back the oil prices above 100$ a barrel supporting the gold as a safe haven stance of the money value versus the higher inflation outlook to rebound from 1306$ trading currently above 1360$ trying to get over 1380$ after it was under pressure because of the increased optimism of having better growth rates in US this year can make the investing in the greenback rewarding with tame inflation pressure can help the Fed to keep its easing borrowing plans unchanged as it has done by the end of last month giving just reference to the rising of the commodities prices just as BOJ which is fighting deflation has done until now betting on its inability to move up the inflation over the long term in US as it was clear in Bernanke's last talking.
After the cable had got a strong push from UK Service PMI of January rising above 50 again into the expansion territory at 54.5 above the market expectations of 53.5 from 49.7 in December jumping to 1.6275 last week, The cable eased back from it unable even to get the formed resistance at 1.6296 which has been reached in the beginning of last November when the greenback was under pressure from the Fed's decision to add another 600b$ in another step of its QE policy for stimulating the economic growth in US but this does not object the British pound which is still taking advantage from the increased market speculations of having new adopted tightening stance from the BOE for fighting the inflation which has been surged recently with UK CPI index reaching 3.7% yearly after the recent MPC meeting minutes which have shown stronger than expected appreciation of the inflation upside risks giving another vote to sentence who was calling for hiking the interest rate by .25 from the MPC voting member Mr. Martin Weale to be 6 to 2 to 1 decision of keeping the interest rate unchanged at .5% and its buying bonds plan unchanged at 200b Stg instead of 7 to 1 to 1 in their earlier meeting as Possen is still favoring increasing of the buying bonds plan but in the same time, the market is still appreciating the growth downside risks which face the UK economy and drew UK Q4 GDP into the negative territory at -.5% quarterly showing emerging of the stagflation risks capping the MPC from hiking the interest rate in the well required pace to anchor the inflation fearing of accumulating of these risks facing the growth by tackling further the investments which are needed for spurring the economy , so it looks that the only available option to the BOE currently is to let the pound appreciate for containing the inflation helping the market trust in it. So, God willing, it is important today to wait for its interest rate decision which will be published after both of UK manufacturing and industrial productions of December which are expected to be up monthly by .5% from .6% and .4% in November.
Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The developments in Egypt could rise up containing the market sentiment with a new constitutional well-engineered speech from Mubarak expected to be his last one after passing his authorities to the vice president as the constitution can allow. The speech may not reach most of the protestors but that's it which means that the situation is still open not wide open but open which means that there is still some confusion and unrest in Altahrir Square which may need another step from the Egyptian army to grantee the revolution requests and the steps of the vice president to achieve the required reforms and the transition of Authorities and the modifications of the constitution after the role of the president has ended by asking of them under the pressure of the Egyptian revolution.
The US Equities markets have been quite looking for what's new to come from Egypt taking a safe side buying the greenback again to appreciate across the broad while the Asian stocks indexes are still under pressure from the unexpected Chinese decision of hiking the yearly lending rate by 25 basis points to 6.06% from 5.81% for curbing the inflation accumulating pressure at the current high oil and commodities prices which can lower the demand outlook of them and also the Australian dollar and New Zealand Dollar too which is trading below .76 versus the greenback currently as the nearest commodities markets to china.
The oil prices are still around 100$ a barrel supporting the gold to keep its recent gains also as a safe haven of the money value versus the higher inflation outlook to rebound from 1306$ underpinned by the concerns about the geopolitical situation in the middle east worrying about the oil supplies from the Arabian rich countries of oil through the Suez channel to be traded currently above 1360$ trying to get over 1380$ again after it was under pressure because of the increased optimism of having better growth rates in US this year can make the investing in the greenback rewarding with tame inflation pressure can help the Fed to keep its easing borrowing plans unchanged as it has released in its economic assessment by the end of last month giving just reference to the rising of the commodities prices just as BOJ which is fighting deflation has done until now betting on its inability to move up the inflation over the long term in US as it was clear in Bernanke's last talking.
After the single could not stand again above 1.37, it has eased back heading to 1.3505 which was its recent low versus the greenback which has been formed after recovery of the investors' risk appetite coming with rising of with rising of the treasuries yields and the increased demand for borrowing while the US economy is looking better in the recent months despite the struggling of its labor market as we have seen by the end of last week the release of US Jan non-farm payroll adding just 36k while the market was waiting for 150k jobs to be added with declining of the unemployment rate to 9% from 9.4% while the market was waiting for rising to 9.6% but since the strong release of January ISM Manufacturing index which jumped to 60.8 while the market was waiting for 58.2 from 58.5 in December, the confidence in the US economy is getting momentum adding gains to its dividends value driving the treasuries yields by expected improving of the business spending trust this year in US can move up its growth rates.
While the cable came under pressure from the BOE decision of keeping both of the interest rate and its buying bonds unchanged again disappointing the market speculations of having a tightening action from the MPC which have increased recently by the release of UK CPI index reaching 3.7% yearly and the previous MPC meeting minutes which have shown stronger than expected appreciation of the inflation upside risks by Mr. Martin Weale giving his vote with sentence for calling for hiking the interest rate by .25 from to be 6 to 2 to 1 decision of keeping the interest rate unchanged at .5% and its buying bonds plan unchanged at 200b Stg instead of 7 to 1 to 1 in their earlier meeting as Possen was having the same view of favoring increasing of the buying bonds plan but it looks that this appreciation of inflation was not enough again as the concerns about growth is still strongly existing the falling of UK Q4 GDP into the negative territory at -.5% quarterly showing emerging of the stagflation risks can cap the MPC from hiking the interest rate by the required pace to anchor the inflation fearing of accumulating of the down side risks which can face the growth further by tackling the investments which are needed for spurring the economy. So, it looks that the only available option to the BOE currently is to let the pound appreciate for containing the inflation helping the market trust in it. The Cable is still trying hardly to stand above 1.60 after easing back from 1.6275 which has been reached last week with the bullish release of UK Service PMI of January rising above 50 again into the expansion territory at 54.5 above the market expectations of 53.5 from 49.7 in December but it could not even get the formed resistance at 1.6296 which has been reached in the beginning of last November when the greenback was under pressure from the Fed's decision to add another 600b$ in another step of its QE policy for stimulating the economic growth in US.
Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The stability came back to the equities markets after Mubarak's resignation leaving the presidency authorities to the high military council in Egypt which announced its working for achieving the revolution goals reducing the risks threating the markets from the turmoil continuation in Egypt. The oil prices got down and the gold as well as the confidence in business spending rose up and the oil supplies from the Middle East have become safer. The improving of the inventors' risk appetite could help Dow to make another new year high again at 12285 and it is expected in this new week to have a green opening in Europe and Asian which was negatively impacted by the unexpected Chinese decision of hiking the yearly lending rate by 25 basis points to 6.06% from 5.81% for curbing the inflation accumulating pressure at the current high oil and commodities prices which can lower the demand outlook of them and also the Australian dollar and New Zealand Dollar too as the nearest commodities markets to china and also these prices can get down after the cooling of tension in Egypt which was underpinned the commodities prices.
The single could find new buying again around 1.35 psychological level versus the greenback as the new developments of Egypt lowered the asking for safe haven positions lifting the demand for taking risks driving the demand of the higher yielding currencies. The single currency has ended its previous rebounding from 1.3505 just below 1.375 and headed back to this level by the worries about the debt in Europe and the crisis in Egypt which eased to drive the pair up to close last week at 1.3545 after reaching 1.3496.
The greenback can continue being under pressure in the coming period from the market focusing on the Fed's pledges of keeping its quantitive easing policy for spurring growth and demand for jobs expecting the recent rising of oil and commodities prices to have benign effect on the inflation which is expected to be well-contained over the long term by the Fed unable to cause a major change of its stimulating policy for supporting the growth which is still unable to store durable confidence in the housing and labor markets and from another side it looks that we are looking ahead of taking further tax cuts in US and this time this can be on the corporate taxes to push up the investors confidence in hiring to help its expanding in the private sector too which can be encourage further for increasing the business spending which is strongly needed to the labor market in US as what we have watched in US recently.
Also the cable which has been trading below 1.60 psychological level by the resignation of Mubarak, it could rise up above it by the pressure on the greenback as the increased demand for risky assets by the weekend. The cable has been already under pressure Since the BOE decision of keeping both of the interest rate and its buying bonds unchanged again disappointing the market speculations of having a tightening action from the MPC which have increased recently by the release of UK CPI index reaching 3.7% yearly and the previous MPC meeting minutes which have shown stronger than expected appreciation of the inflation upside risks by Mr. Martin Weale giving his vote with sentence for calling for hiking the interest rate by .25 from to be 6 to 2 to 1 decision of keeping the interest rate unchanged at .5% and its buying bonds plan unchanged at 200b Stg instead of 7 to 1 to 1 in their earlier meeting as Possen was having the same view of favoring increasing of the buying bonds plan but it looks that this appreciation of inflation was not enough again to convince the BOE to start tightening as the concerns about growth are still strongly existing as the falling of UK Q4 GDP into the negative territory at -.5% quarterly showing emerging probability of the down side risks of growth in the case of hiking the interest rate by the required pace to anchor the inflation as it is to tackle the investments too which are needed for moving up the required economic growth. So, God willing, it looks that the only available option to the BOE currently is to let the pound appreciate for containing the inflation helping the market trust in it.
Anyway, The Cable is still trying hardly now to stand above 1.60 after easing back from 1.6275 which has been reached previously with the bullish release of UK Service PMI of January rising above 50 again into the expansion territory at 54.5 above the market expectations of 53.5 from 49.7 in December but it could not even get the formed resistance at 1.6296 which has been reached in the beginning of last November when the greenback was under pressure from the Fed's decision to add another 600b$ in another step of its QE policy for stimulating the economic growth in US while its next expected supporting level is at 1.5962 and it can be followed by 1.582 and the breaking of it can lead to testing 1.5747 again.
Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The European equities indexes could have a strong opening following US as the brought back stability after Mubarak's resignation by the end of last week leaving the presidency authorities to the high military council in Egypt which announced its working for achieving the revolution goals turning down the risks threating the markets from the turmoil continuation in Egypt. The oil prices got down and the gold as well as the confidence in business spending rose up as the oil supplies from the Middle East have become safer but this improving of the inventors' risk appetite has been short lived in Europe as the worries about the financial market have come back containing the market sentiment with increased probability of the needs of rescue WestLB bank in Germany and the European financial ministers announcing about their eagerness for moving up their ability for lending to 500 billion euros from the beginning of 2013 which show to the markets that their current 250b euros sharing package with the IMF is not enough to save the expected requests of borrowing.
By the end of last week, The single could find new buying again around 1.35 psychological level versus the greenback as the new developments of Egypt lowered the asking for safe haven positions lifting the demand for taking risks driving the demand of the higher yielding currencies. The single currency has ended its previous rebounding from 1.3505 just below 1.375 and headed back to this level by the worries about the debt in Europe and the crisis in Egypt which eased to drive the pair up to close last week at 1.3545 after reaching 1.3496 but the single currency came under pressure again falling below 1.35 on this dovish sentiment before bouncing from 1.3427 trading currently just above 1.35 waiting by god's will for the release of EU Q4 GDP to be up quarterly by .4% and yearly by 2.1% from .3% and 1.9% in the third quarter of last year and also the release of germane economic sentiment ZEW of February which is expected to be 20 from 15.4 in January and also the European figure to be 31 from 25.4.
While the Asian equities markets which could get use of the bullish closing of the US equities indexes in the beginning of the week, they have come back under the pressure of the interest rate outlook in China after the release of its CPI of January which rose up to 4.9% yearly after easing in December to 4.6% from more than 2 years high at 5.1% in November which can trigger PBOC to hike the interest rate sooner than later capping the gains in Asian stocks markets which have not found in the BOJ assessment after keeping the interest rate at .1% and its buying bonds plan worth about 60 billion dollar unchanged what can push up the sentiment about the Japanese economy which is still fighting the deflation risks as we have seen its Q4 GDP coming at -.3% yearly down by 1.1% quarterly too.
The greenback can continue being under pressure in the coming period from the market focusing on the Fed's pledges of keeping its quantitive easing policy for spurring growth and demand for jobs expecting the recent rising of oil and commodities prices to have benign effect on the inflation which is expected to be well-contained over the long term by the Fed unable to cause a major change of its stimulating policy for supporting the growth which is still unable to store durable confidence in the housing and labor markets and from another side, it looks that we are looking ahead of new worries about the budget deficit in US after Obama's announced plans to have it at 1.65$ trillion in 2011 which can be more than 10% of the GDP this year and 1.1$ trillion in 2012 and then falling to 0.607 trillion before 2015 and in the same time he is looking for lowering the corporate taxes to push up the investors confidence in hiring to help its expanding in the private sector too which can be encourage further for increasing the business spending which is strongly needed to the labor market in US as what we have watched in US recently.
The cable is still trying hardly now to stand above 1.60 after easing back from 1.6275 which has been reached previously with the bullish release of UK Service PMI of January rising above 50 again into the expansion territory at 54.5 above the market expectations of 53.5 from 49.7 in December but it could not even get the formed resistance at 1.6296 which has been reached in the beginning of last November when the greenback was under pressure from the Fed's decision to add another 600b$ in another step of its QE policy for stimulating the economic growth in US while its next expected supporting level is at 1.5962 and it can be followed by 1.582 and the breaking of it can lead to testing 1.5747 again.
The British pound has been under pressure by the recent BOE decision of keeping both of the interest rate and its buying bonds unchanged again disappointing the market speculations of having a tightening action from the MPC which have increased recently since the release of December UK CPI index which has reached 3.7% yearly and expected to continue rising above 4% in January as we wait today to see and also the previous MPC meeting minutes release which have shown stronger than expected appreciation of the inflation upside risks by Mr. Martin Weale giving his vote with sentence for calling for hiking the interest rate by .25 from to be 6 to 2 to 1 decision of keeping the interest rate unchanged at .5% and its buying bonds plan unchanged at 200b Stg instead of 7 to 1 to 1 in their earlier meeting as Possen was having the same view of favoring increasing of the buying bonds plan but it looks that this appreciation of inflation was not enough again to convince the BOE to start tightening as the concerns about growth are still strongly existing as the falling of UK Q4 GDP into the negative territory at -.5% quarterly showing emerging probability of the down side risks of growth in the case of hiking the interest rate by the required pace to anchor the inflation as it is to tackle the investments too which are needed for moving up the required economic growth. So, God willing, it looks that the only available option to the BOE currently is to let the pound appreciate for containing the inflation helping the market trust in it.
Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

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Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The release of the recent Fed's meeting minutes did not come away of what has been seen of pledges of keeping its quantitive easing policy for spurring growth and demand for jobs expecting the recent rising of oil and commodities prices to have benign effect on the inflation which is expected to be well-contained over the long term by the Fed unable to cause a major change of its stimulating policy for supporting the growth which has not stored durable confidence in the housing and labor markets until now but the Fed's upgrading of its growth expectation of this year from 3% to 3.6% to 3.4% to 3.9% came to the market as a new reason to have more risks pushing the US stocks up.
While the British pound came under pressure again after King's comments which brought down in the interest rate outlook in UK which has been up by the release of Jan UK CPI which reached 4% moving the cable up above 1.61 before it has been dragged down by these comments which have shown a greater than expected appreciation of the growth down risks which faces the UK economy which has shrunk in 2010 Q4 GDP by .5% quarterly showing emerging down side risks to face the growth in the case of hiking the interest rate by the required pace to anchor the inflation as it is to cool the economy further tackling the investments which are needed for spurring growth. The cable has fallen below 1.60 after this hit which has followed the higher than expected release of UK jobless claimant rising by 2.4k while it was expected to decrease by 3.3k as a reflection of the current struggling economy in UK which is facing emerging stagflation risks at the current high prices capping the BOE ability to take a clear tightening or easing direction currently and God willing, it looks that the only available option to the BOE currently is to let the pound appreciate for containing the inflation helping the market trust in it which has been dampen by the recent weak economic releases from UK triggering these recent comments by King and the inflation quarterly report release which has shown to the market that it is required now from the UK economy to come over this phase by finding the sluggish demand to produce at these current high prices which face it as the action of tightening at the required rate for containing these prices should have strong negative impact on growth which is required strongly too.
The Cable is trading currently at 1.6090 after finding support at 1.5985 as the greenback came under pressure after the Fed's upgrading of its growth expectation of this year from 3% to 3.6% to 3.4% to 3.9% increasing the market risk appetite but it is expected to face resistance again at 1.6182 and then 1.6275 which has been reached previously with the bullish release of UK Service PMI of January rising above 50 again into the expansion territory at 54.5 above the market expectations of 53.5 from 49.7 in December but it could not even get the formed main resistance at the top formed at 1.6296 which has been reached in the beginning of last November when the greenback was under pressure from the Fed's decision to add another 600b$ in another step of its QE policy for stimulating the economic growth in US while its next expected supporting level is at 1.5962 and it can be followed by 1.582 and the breaking of it can lead to testing 1.5747 again.
The single currency could get over 1.35 trading currently at 1.357 versus the greenback after having a higher bottom at 1.346 above 1.3427 following the Fed's upgrading of the US growth which pushed the US stocks up again after red session profit taking session helping Dow to make another new year high at 12303 and putting pressure on the greenback across the broad in the benefits of the higher yielding currencies and it is expected to face again at 1.364 then 1.374 and breaking it can open the way for the recent formed main top at 1.386.
The single currency came under pressure this week as the market sentiment has been contained by seen weakness in the germane industrial pace by the end of last year as the falling of December germane industrial productions by 1.5% while they were expected to be up by .2% from decreasing by .6% in November and also the dovish falling of Germany factory orders by 3.4% monthly in December from gaining 5.4% in November while the market was waiting for shrinking by 1.4% to show easing of the demand of capital good from Germany which affected negatively on its 2010 Q4 GDP preliminary reading to be lower than the market expectation of .5% at just .4% and these dovish figure has come with the release of February germane economic sentiment ZEW which was expected to be 20 from 15.4 in January shocking the market by getting back again to 15.7 to weigh negatively on the single currency which was depressed by the European financial ministers announcing about their eagerness for moving up their ability for lending to 500 billion euros from the beginning of 2013 which show to the markets that their current 250b euros sharing package with the IMF is not enough to save the expected requests of borrowing and also by increased probability of the needs of rescue WestLB bank in Germany and but the pressure has eased by its announcement of selling four parts of it having new structure to get over its accumulating loses by 2015.
God willing, it is important to wait today for the talking of the MPC member Andrew sentence which is not expected to be soft following the recent rising of UK CPI of January to 4% as the main supporter of tightening among the MPC member which can support the British pound and also we have the release of US CPI of January which is expected to be .2% m/m and 1.6% y/y broadly while the core figure excluding the food and energy is expected to be .1% m/m as the same as December following the rising of Jan broad figure of US PPI by .8% monthly and the core excluding the food and energy by .5% while it was foreseen to be just .2% as the same of December showing growing prices over the producing and wholesales levels and we have also from US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index of February which is expected to be 21 from 19.3 in January and US leading indicators index of January which is expected to be up monthly by .4% from 1% in December and that's beside Bernanke's testifying later in the US session.
Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The risk appetite has improved again by the bullish release of US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index of February which was expected to be 21 from 19.3 in January and it has surprised the market by 35.9 and the price paid of it has come up to 67.2 from just 54.3 showing strong pricing power following the release of US CPI of January which was expected to be .2% m/m and came higher at .3% while the core figure excluding the food and energy was expected to be .1% m/m and came also up at .2% from .1% in December and this stronger than expected prices data over the consuming level have come following earlier rising of Jan broad figure of US PPI by .8% monthly and also the core figure excluding the food and energy by .5% while it was foreseen to be just .2% as the same of December showing growing prices over the producing and wholesales levels too which can be resulted from the rising of the commodities and oil prices which are still expected to be well-contained over the long by the fed which has actually upgraded its growth expectation of this year from 3% to 3.6% to 3.4% to 3.9% helping the investors confidence to load more risks pushing the US stocks up further again weighing on the greenback across the broad.
And from another side, The cable has been supported by the release of Feb UK CBI industrial output which surged to 32 from 17 in January and exports orders which came at 11 from 0 in January which is the highest rising since 1995 to get over 1.61 facing again the resistance at 1.6182 after it has eased from it following King's comments which brought down the interest rate outlook in UK after it had been supported by the rising of Jan UK CPI to 4% earlier as his comments have shown a greater than expected appreciation of the growth down risks which face the UK economy which has already shrunk in 2010 Q4 GDP by .5% quarterly showing emerging down side risks can face the growth in the case of hiking the interest rate by the required pace to anchor the inflation as it is to cool the economy further tackling the investments which are needed for spurring growth and so the cable has fallen below 1.60 after these comments which have followed the higher than expected release of UK jobless claimant rising by 2.4k while it was expected to decrease by 3.3k as a reflection of the current struggling economy in UK which is facing emerging stagflation risks at the current high prices capping the BOE ability to take a clear tightening or easing direction currently and God willing, it looks that the only available option to the BOE currently is to let the pound appreciate for containing the inflation helping the market trust in it which has been dampen by the recent weak economic releases from UK triggering these recent comments by King and the inflation quarterly report release which has shown to the market that it is required now from the UK economy to come over this phase by finding the sluggish demand to produce at these current high prices which face it as the action of tightening at the required rate for containing these prices should have strong negative impact on growth which is required strongly too.
Now, after the cable could find support at 1.5985, by god's will, it should face again this same resisting level at 1.6182 and then 1.6275 which has been reached previously with the bullish release of UK Service PMI of January rising above 50 again into the expansion territory at 54.5 above the market expectations of 53.5 from 49.7 in December but it could not even get the formed main resistance at the top formed at 1.6296 which has been reached in the beginning of last November when the greenback was under pressure from the Fed's decision to add another 600b$ in another step of its QE policy for stimulating the economic growth in US while its next expected supporting level is at 1.5962 and it can be followed by 1.582 and the breaking of it can lead to testing 1.5747 again.
The single currency could also get over 1.36 versus the greenback which has been under pressure across the broad on its low cost as a main funding currency of taking risks in the benefits of the higher yielding currencies such as the Euro which could have a higher bottom at 1.346 above 1.3427 following the recent Fed's upgrading of the US growth to have a better technical look to face again 1.364 and then 1.374 and the breaking it can open the way for the recent formed main top at 1.386.
The single currency has come under pressure this week as the market sentiment has been contained by seen weakness in the germane industrial pace by the end of last year as the falling of December germane industrial productions by 1.5% while they were expected to be up by .2% from decreasing by .6% in November and also the dovish falling of Germany factory orders by 3.4% monthly in December from gaining 5.4% in November while the market was waiting for shrinking by 1.4% to show easing of the demand of capital good from Germany which affected negatively on its 2010 Q4 GDP preliminary reading to be lower than the market expectation of .5% at just .4% and these dovish figure has come with the release of February germane economic sentiment ZEW which was expected to be 20 from 15.4 in January shocking the market by getting back again to 15.7 to weigh negatively on the single currency which was depressed by the European financial ministers announcing about their eagerness for moving up their ability for lending to 500 billion euros from the beginning of 2013 which show to the markets that their current 250b euros sharing package with the IMF is not enough to save the expected requests of borrowing and also by increased probability of the needs of rescue WestLB bank in Germany and but the pressure has eased by its announcement of selling four parts of it having new structure to get over its accumulating loses by 2015.
The gold rose also as a mirror of inflation by the new rising of the prices in US while the fed's is expected to hold its easing policy further and also the stronger than expected industrial and manufacturing data from UK and US which suggested stronger than expected demand for oil pushed up its prices which are still fueled by the concerns about the supplies from middle east as the unrests in the countries of this strategic important area and so the gold could get over 1380$ again and it should face the recent resistance at 1394 then the psychological level at 1400$ and the breaking of can test lead to the recent top of it at 1423$ and the recorded high at 1430$
God willing, it is important to wait today for UK retail sales figure of January to be up monthly by .6% after declining in December by .8% and yearly by 4% and we wait also to hear more from the BOE governor King and the Fed's chairman Bernenke.
Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

Dow could close last week up by 117 points for the third consecutive week despite the Chinese second interest rate hike this year which was weighing negatively on the stocks but US last session moments of the week have been contained by market optimism sentiment by better US earning reports to come supporting the US stocks market which has been still contained by the earlier better than expected release of US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index of February which was expected to be 21 from 19.3 in January and it has surprised the market by 35.9.
The greenback came under pressure across the broad by this optimism containing the market sentiment pushing Dow to close at the high of the session at 12391.29 as the greenback is still the well used currency for carrying risks on its low yielding and the recent maintained view of the fed of keeping the interest low as much as it can keeping its quantitive easing policy unchanged for supporting the struggling labor market and unstable housing market as the Fed sees that the current growth pace can not afford the required job of consuming sentiment to drive up these sectors which are in need for more confidence in both of the business and consuming spending in spite its recent upgrading of its growth expectation of this year to be from 3% to 3.6% to 3.4% to 3.9%.
The gold is still well supported too as the market is still see in the Fed's language speculating of having well contained prices over the long term despite which have been seen recently of rising of US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing price paid significantly to 67.2 from just 54.3 showing strong pricing power following the release of US CPI of January which was expected to be .2% m/m and came higher at .3% while the core figure excluding the food and energy was expected to be .1% m/m and came also up at .2% from .1% in December and this stronger than expected prices data over the consuming level have come also following earlier rising of Jan broad figure of US PPI by .8% monthly and also the core figure excluding the food and energy by .5% while it was foreseen to be just .2% as the same of December showing growing prices over the producing and wholesales levels too which can be resulted from the rising of the commodities and oil prices which are underpinned by anticipated stronger than expected demand from US on its current held accommodative policy and better than expected signs of growth which can encourage the demand for these row materials utilization while their prices are still fueled by the concerns about the current unrests in the Middle East countries which ends in country to start in another one which can make the oil supplies unstable from this strategic important area rich of oil and because of that the gold has been able to get over 1390$ by the end of last week facing the recent resistance at 1394$ and getting over it should be followed by testing the psychological level at 1400$ and the breaking of can test lead to the recent top of it at 1423$ and the recorded high at 1430$.
The single currency has come under pressure last week as the market sentiment has been contained by seen weakness in the germane industrial pace by the end of last year as the falling of December germane industrial productions by 1.5% while they were expected to be up by .2% from decreasing by .6% in November and also the dovish falling of Germany factory orders by 3.4% monthly in December from gaining 5.4% in November while the market was waiting for shrinking by 1.4% to show easing of the demand of capital good from Germany which affected negatively on its 2010 Q4 GDP preliminary reading to be lower than the market expectation of .5% at just .4% and these dovish figure has come with the release of February germane economic sentiment ZEW which was expected to be 20 from 15.4 in January shocking the market by getting back again to 15.7 to weigh negatively on the single currency which was depressed by the European financial ministers announcing about their eagerness for moving up their ability for lending to 500 billion euros from the beginning of 2013 which show to the markets that their current 250b euros sharing package with the IMF is not enough to save the expected requests of borrowing and also by increased probability of the needs of rescue WestLB bank in Germany and but the pressure on the single currency has eased by its announcement of selling four parts of it having new structure to get over its accumulating loses by 2015 starting ascending back again and getting momentum by its ability to make a new higher low at 1.3545 following 1.346 and 1.3427 to break 1.364 resistance facing now a new resisting level at 1.374 and getting over it can open the way to the previous formed top at 1.386 versus the greenback which became under pressure from being funding currency of taking risks in the benefits of the higher yielding currencies while the Euro is underpinned now again now by increased markets expectations of having a closer interest rate hike by the ECB for tackling the prices upside risks pressure which can accumulate in EU in a fast way following UK.
The cable which has been already supported by the release of Feb UK CBI industrial output which surged to 32 from 17 in January and exports orders which came at 11 from 0 in January which is the highest rising since 1995 has got another push from UK retails sales of January which jumped monthly by 1.5% while the market was waiting for just .5% to get over the resistance at 1.6182 after easing from it earlier following King's comments which brought down the interest rate outlook in UK after it had been supported by the rising of Jan UK CPI to 4% earlier as his comments have shown a greater than expected appreciation of the growth down risks which face the UK economy which has already shrunk in 2010 Q4 GDP by .5% quarterly showing emerging down side risks can face the growth in the case of hiking the interest rate by the required pace to anchor the inflation as it is to cool the economy further tackling the investments which are needed for spurring growth and so the cable has fallen below 1.60 after these comments which have followed the higher than expected release of UK jobless claimant rising by 2.4k while it was expected to decrease by 3.3k as a reflection of the current struggling economy in UK which is facing emerging stagflation risks at the current high prices capping the BOE ability to take a clear tightening or easing direction currently and God willing, it looks that the only available option to the BOE currently is to let the pound appreciate for containing the inflation helping the market trust in it which has been dampen by the recent weak economic releases from UK triggering these recent comments by King and the inflation quarterly report release which has shown to the market that it is required now from the UK economy to come over this phase by finding the sluggish demand to produce at these current high prices which face it as the action of tightening at the required rate for containing these prices should have strong negative impact on growth which is required strongly too.
by God's will, The Cable should face now 1.6275 which has been reached previously with the bullish release of UK Service PMI of January rising above 50 again into the expansion territory at 54.5 above the market expectations of 53.5 from 49.7 in December but it could not even get the formed main resistance at the top formed at 1.6296 which has been reached in the beginning of last November when the greenback was under pressure from the Fed's decision to add another 600b$ in another step of its QE policy for stimulating the economic growth in US while its next expected supporting level is at 1.5962 and it can be followed by 1.582 and the breaking of it can lead to testing 1.5747 again.
Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

Dow has got its turn of falling following the European and Asian equities market which were under pressure from the tension in Libya while the US market was closed for holiday in the beginning day of the week. Dow could close last week up by 117 points for the third consecutive week despite the Chinese second interest rate hike this year which was weighing negatively on the stocks but US last session moments of last week have been contained by market optimism sentiment of having further extended time of fed's keeping of its easing policy which supports the stock and in the same time the market is expected to have better growth signs and earning reports to come supporting the US stocks markets which have been still contained by the earlier better than expected release of US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index of February which was expected to be 21 from 19.3 in January and it has surprised the market by 35.9. The Dow which could not find use from US CB Consumers confidence reaching 70.4 from 64.8 in January while the market was waiting for 65 and US Richmond manufacturing survey reaching 25 while the market was foreseen 17 from 18 in January has lost 178 points in its first session in a dovish strong reversing sign containing all of the 117 gaining of last week.
Also the greenback which have been under pressure across the broad by this optimism of better economic growth outlook got a new pushing up by the market worries about the oil supplies from the middle east which could trigger market squaring of the risky position buying back the US dollar as a safe haven and as it is a widely used currency for carrying risks on its low yielding.
The gold which has been already supported by rising of US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing price paid significantly to 67.2 from just 54.3 showing strong pricing power following the release of US CPI of January which was expected to be .2% m/m and came higher at .3% while the core figure excluding the food and energy was expected to be .1% m/m and came also up at .2% from .1% in December and this stronger than expected prices data over the consuming level have come also following earlier rising of Jan broad figure of US PPI by .8% monthly and also the core figure excluding the food and energy by .5% while it was foreseen to be just .2% as the same of December showing growing prices over the producing and wholesales levels too which can be resulted from the rising of the commodities and oil prices which are underpinned by anticipated stronger than expected demand from US on its current held accommodative policy and better than expected signs of growth which can encourage the demand for the row materials utilization while their prices are still getting pushes from the concerns about the current unrests in the Middle East countries which ends in country to start in another one threating the oil supplies from this strategic important area rich of oil and because of that the gold has been able to get over its recent resistance at 1394$ and the psychological level at 1400$ facing now its recent top of it at 1423$ and breaking it can lead to its recorded high at 1430$.
And also The single currency which has come under pressure last week as the market sentiment has been contained by seen weakness in the germane industrial pace by the end of last year as the falling of December germane industrial productions by 1.5% while they were expected to be up by .2% from decreasing by .6% in November and also the dovish falling of Germany factory orders by 3.4% monthly in December from gaining 5.4% in November while the market was waiting for shrinking by 1.4% to show easing of the demand of capital good from Germany which affected negatively on its 2010 Q4 GDP preliminary reading to be lower than the market expectation of .5% at just .4% and these dovish figure has come with the release of February germane economic sentiment ZEW which was expected to be 20 from 15.4 in January shocking the market by getting back again to 15.7 to weigh negatively on the single currency which was depressed by the European financial ministers announcing about their eagerness for moving up their ability for lending to 500 billion euros from the beginning of 2013 which show to the markets that their current 250b euros sharing package with the IMF is not enough to save the expected requests of borrowing and also by increased probability of the needs of rescue WestLB bank in Germany and but the pressure on the single currency has eased by its announcement of selling four parts of it having new structure to get over its accumulating loses by 2015 starting ascending back again and getting momentum by its ability to make a new higher low at 1.3545 following 1.346 and 1.3427 to break 1.364 resistance before getting back again to 1.3527 from it again unable to get over1.374 as the single currency selling because of the markets worries about the tension in Libya which is one of the most important and nearest oil and gas suppliers to Europe giving Italy 35% of its needs of gas and its supplies are really exposed to be cut currently but the Euro could find support again the increased markets expectations of having a closer interest rate hike by the ECB for tackling the prices upside risks pressure which can accumulate in EU in a fast way following UK and the market has had clear stress on that from the ECB Member Mr. Mersch's warning about the inflation upside risks and it is now facing again 1.374 and getting over it can open the way to the previous formed top at 1.386
And also the cable which had better than expected Public Sector Net Borrowing of January at -5.3b Stg while the market was waiting for -.7b following increasing by 14.5b in December and has been supported by the release of Feb UK CBI industrial output which surged to 32 from 17 in January and exports orders which came at 11 from 0 in January which is the highest rising since 1995 and stronger than expected UK retails sales of January which jumped monthly by 1.5% while the market was waiting for just .5% got also under pressure on the greenback buying back sentiment easing from 1.627 again which has been reached previously with the bullish release of UK Service PMI of January rising above 50 again into the expansion territory at 54.5 above the market expectations of 53.5 from 49.7 in December but it could not even get the formed main resistance at the top formed at 1.6296 which has been reached in the beginning of last November when the greenback was under pressure from the Fed's decision to add another 600b$ in another step of its QE policy for stimulating the economic growth in US while its next expected supporting level is at 1.5962 and it can be followed by 1.582 and the breaking of it can lead to testing 1.5747 again.
Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

[walid]

The MPC recent meeting minutes have given the investors new reason to buy the cable as Mr. Dale has given his vote to hike the interest rate by .25% like Mr. Martin Weale and Andrew sentence who called for hiking by .5% while Possen was the only vote for increasing the buying bonds plan by another 50b Stg while the other 5 MPC voting members including BOE president Mr. Mervin King preferred leaving the interest rate unchanged keeping BOE 200b Stg buying bonds plan unchanged.
The cable has been already supported by better than expected release of January Public Sector Net Borrowing which came earlier at -5.3b Stg while the market was waiting for -.7b following increasing by 14.5b in December and this good figure has come after we have seen Feb UK CBI industrial output which surged to 32 from 17 in January and exports orders which came at 11 from 0 in January which is the highest rising since 1995 and also stronger than expected UK retails sales of January increasing monthly by 1.5% while the market was waiting for just .5%.
The Cable is now trading below 1.627 again which has been reached previously with the bullish release of UK Service PMI of January rising above 50 again into the expansion territory at 54.5 above the market expectations of 53.5 from 49.7 in December but it could not even get the formed main resistance at the top formed at 1.6296 which has been reached in the beginning of last November when the greenback was under pressure from the Fed's decision to add another 600b$ in another step of its QE policy for stimulating the economic growth in US while its next expected supporting level is at 1.5962 and it can be followed by 1.582 and the breaking of it can lead to testing 1.5747 again.
It looks that the investors have started to get worried about the interest rate outlook in US which can move up sooner than expected weighing negatively on the equities markets as the recent signs of pricing power in US which we have seen rising of US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing price paid significantly to 67.2 from just 54.3 showing strong pricing power following the release of US CPI of January which was expected to be .2% m/m and came higher at .3% while the core figure excluding the food and energy was expected to be .1% m/m and came also up at .2% from .1% in December and this stronger than expected prices data over the consuming level have come also following earlier rising of Jan broad figure of US PPI by .8% monthly and also the core figure excluding the food and energy by .5% while it was foreseen to be just .2% as the same of December showing growing prices over the producing and wholesales levels too which can trigger a tightening action by the fed especially with the current continuation of rising of oil and commodities prices which threat the recovery and erode the Fed's efforts of easing for stimulating demand for moving up the growth.
After Dow has come under pressure losing 178 points following the European and Asian equities market which were depressed by the tension in Libya while the US market was closed for holiday in the beginning day of the week, Dow has continued its declining shedding another 107 unfazed of US CB Consumers confidence reaching 70.4 from 64.8 in January while the market was waiting for 65 and US Richmond manufacturing survey reaching 25 while the market was foreseen 17 from 18 in January which got after the earlier surprising rising of US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index of February which was expected to be 21 from 19.3 in January and it has surprised the market by 35.
The European equities markets have come also under increased pressure because of the turmoil in Libya which is one of the most important and nearest oil and gas suppliers to Europe giving Italy 35% of its needs of gas and its supplies are really exposed to be cut currently but the Euro is still finding buying from the enlarged markets expectations of having a closer interest rate hike by the ECB for tackling the prices upside risks pressure which can accumulate in EU in a fast way following UK and the market has had clear stress on that from the ECB Member Mr. Mersch's warning about the inflation upside risks and it is now facing its previous formed top at 1.386 after getting over 1.374 versus the greenback.
The gold is still getting strength from its different features as a safe haven with the tension in Lydia has no clear end and as hedge against inflation with the current rising of prices which are hard to be contained in the required pace in Europe, UK and also US which has started to have pricing power too while the Fed is still caring for helping the struggling labor and housing markets hoping for containing the inflation upside risks over the long term despite the current unrests in the Middle East countries over the short term which end in a country to start in another one threating the oil supplies from this strategic important area rich of oil pushing its prices up which fueled the gold as well to be supported over its recent resistance at 1394$ and the psychological level at 1400$ facing now its recent top of it at 1423$ and breaking it can lead to its recorded high at 1430$.
Kind Regards
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com .