منتديات تداول - عرض مشاركة واحدة - اجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي واحتمال زيادة معدل سعر الفائدة ربع نقطه

ترايدر · 08-08-2006, 04:26 PM

Updated: 08-Aug-06 08:55 ET

08:55 ET

Fed Day:
It is Fed Day. Stock futures suggest an up open. That reflects optimism that the Fed will not raise rates at today's FOMC policy meeting.

The market may indeed open higher, but then will probably go into a holding pattern until the Fed announcement at 2:15 ET. The market is often volatile after that, and not always in the direction that the announcement would suggest.

We do not expect the Fed to raise rates today. The associated policy statement will not, however, rule out the possibility of future rate hikes. The previous policy statement noted that "some inflation risks remain." That is certainly still the case.

The financial markets are assuming that there will be no rate hike. The action after the announcement could therefore be based on the policy wording more than on the fact that the Fed is "pausing" in this current interest rate cycle.

Second quarter productivity was reported up 1.1%. This is a little disappointing in that the year-over-year growth is now just 2.4%. Productivity growth helps keep inflation down by reducing unit labor costs - the labor costs to businesses of producing each unit of output. Unit labor costs were up a surprisingly strong 4.2% in the second quarter and the year-over-year increase is now 3.2%. Coupled with rising energy and other commodity prices, higher unit labor costs raise the pressure on businesses to increase prices.

The data this morning is a reminder that even though the Fed might not raise rates at today's meeting, an increase in underlying inflationary pressures over time could lead to the need to raise rates later this year.

Oil prices are slightly lower this morning, but still holding near $77 a barrel. -- Dick Green, Briefing.com.

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سيكون اجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي في تمام الساعة 2.15 بتوقيت نيويورك كما رشح العديد من المحلليين ان لايسفر الاجتماع عن رفع معدل سعر الفائدة نظرا لضعف الارقام الاقتصادية التي صدرت مؤخراً وكما يتوقع بمشيئة الله تعالى ارتفاع للسوق الامريكي خلال هذا اليوم نظرا لتأخير رفع معدل سعر الفائدة خلال الاجتماعات القادمة مع عدم اغفال وجود نسبة من التضخم وقد نشهد ارتفاع لمعدل سعر الفائدة ولكن على الارجح ليس في اجتماع هذا اليوم .

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ترايدر

08-08-2006, 04:26 PM	#31
ترايدر مشرف الاسهم الامريكية تاريخ التسجيل: Jan 2004 المشاركات: 1,262	Updated: 08-Aug-06 08:55 ET 08:55 ET Fed Day: It is Fed Day. Stock futures suggest an up open. That reflects optimism that the Fed will not raise rates at today's FOMC policy meeting. The market may indeed open higher, but then will probably go into a holding pattern until the Fed announcement at 2:15 ET. The market is often volatile after that, and not always in the direction that the announcement would suggest. We do not expect the Fed to raise rates today. The associated policy statement will not, however, rule out the possibility of future rate hikes. The previous policy statement noted that "some inflation risks remain." That is certainly still the case. The financial markets are assuming that there will be no rate hike. The action after the announcement could therefore be based on the policy wording more than on the fact that the Fed is "pausing" in this current interest rate cycle. Second quarter productivity was reported up 1.1%. This is a little disappointing in that the year-over-year growth is now just 2.4%. Productivity growth helps keep inflation down by reducing unit labor costs - the labor costs to businesses of producing each unit of output. Unit labor costs were up a surprisingly strong 4.2% in the second quarter and the year-over-year increase is now 3.2%. Coupled with rising energy and other commodity prices, higher unit labor costs raise the pressure on businesses to increase prices. The data this morning is a reminder that even though the Fed might not raise rates at today's meeting, an increase in underlying inflationary pressures over time could lead to the need to raise rates later this year. Oil prices are slightly lower this morning, but still holding near $77 a barrel. -- Dick Green, Briefing.com. =================== سيكون اجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي في تمام الساعة 2.15 بتوقيت نيويورك كما رشح العديد من المحلليين ان لايسفر الاجتماع عن رفع معدل سعر الفائدة نظرا لضعف الارقام الاقتصادية التي صدرت مؤخراً وكما يتوقع بمشيئة الله تعالى ارتفاع للسوق الامريكي خلال هذا اليوم نظرا لتأخير رفع معدل سعر الفائدة خلال الاجتماعات القادمة مع عدم اغفال وجود نسبة من التضخم وقد نشهد ارتفاع لمعدل سعر الفائدة ولكن على الارجح ليس في اجتماع هذا اليوم . ============== ترايدر