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ترايدر · 09-08-2006, 04:51 PM

Inflation Risks Remain

The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 5.25% at the August 8 meeting -- the first policy meeting without a hike since May 2004. However, opinion was mixed as Richmond Fed president Lacker dissented in favor of a rate hike to 5.50%. Outside of the post hurricane caution in September, the first dissent since the final ease to 1% in June 2003.

The tone of the policy statement was softer than expected as a more inflation hawkish tone was expected to join the lack of policy action. While it warned that the pause may be followed by further tightening, the heightened inflation indicators didn't get much attention.

The Fed noted the recent elevated growth of core inflation and that high utilization rates and high prices for energy and other commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures. But the reality of accelerated core inflation growth, the strong upturn in unit labor costs and a $77 price tag on a barrel of oil seemed to be calmed by the Fed's note that 'inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time' given moderated growth, contained inflation expectations and the effects of monetary policy actions still not reflected in the economy.

The door for further data-dependent rate hikes was retained by noting that 'inflation risks remain' and that 'additional firming may be needed to address these risks' given the Fed's outlook for both inflation and economic growth as implied by incoming information.

The inflation data leave Briefing.com siding with another rate hike ahead. Timing, however, will be difficult to gauge. Core inflation will continue to be the key indicator as continued 0.3% monthly gains (after that size over the last four months) will leave a yoy pace near 3% by the end of the quarter. Tuesday morning's report of Q2 growth and revisions lifting what was a 0.3% yoy rise in unit labor costs to 3.2% yoy in Q2 is also disturbing given its key read on labor market inflation pressures.

The release of the August FOMC minutes on August 29 will provide a read on any tensions surrounding the dissenting vote and if the desire for another hike was broader based than Lacker's single vote.

The futures market sees the policy statement as suggesting a lower probability for further rate hikes. Late Tuesday prices showed the November contract pricing in 68% probability that rates remain on hold through the September 20 and October 24/25 FOMC policy meetings. December's implied rate of 5.335% was the peak as March stood barely above the current policy rate at 5.29%.
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كما هو متوقع لم يكن هناك اي زيادة في معدل سعر الفائدة خلال اجتماع اوقست .
وفي الاجتماعات القادمة لك حدث حديث سنشير في حينه بمشيئة الله تعالى .

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ترايدر

09-08-2006, 04:51 PM	#32
ترايدر مشرف الاسهم الامريكية تاريخ التسجيل: Jan 2004 المشاركات: 1,262	Inflation Risks Remain The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 5.25% at the August 8 meeting -- the first policy meeting without a hike since May 2004. However, opinion was mixed as Richmond Fed president Lacker dissented in favor of a rate hike to 5.50%. Outside of the post hurricane caution in September, the first dissent since the final ease to 1% in June 2003. The tone of the policy statement was softer than expected as a more inflation hawkish tone was expected to join the lack of policy action. While it warned that the pause may be followed by further tightening, the heightened inflation indicators didn't get much attention. The Fed noted the recent elevated growth of core inflation and that high utilization rates and high prices for energy and other commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures. But the reality of accelerated core inflation growth, the strong upturn in unit labor costs and a $77 price tag on a barrel of oil seemed to be calmed by the Fed's note that 'inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time' given moderated growth, contained inflation expectations and the effects of monetary policy actions still not reflected in the economy. The door for further data-dependent rate hikes was retained by noting that 'inflation risks remain' and that 'additional firming may be needed to address these risks' given the Fed's outlook for both inflation and economic growth as implied by incoming information. The inflation data leave Briefing.com siding with another rate hike ahead. Timing, however, will be difficult to gauge. Core inflation will continue to be the key indicator as continued 0.3% monthly gains (after that size over the last four months) will leave a yoy pace near 3% by the end of the quarter. Tuesday morning's report of Q2 growth and revisions lifting what was a 0.3% yoy rise in unit labor costs to 3.2% yoy in Q2 is also disturbing given its key read on labor market inflation pressures. The release of the August FOMC minutes on August 29 will provide a read on any tensions surrounding the dissenting vote and if the desire for another hike was broader based than Lacker's single vote. The futures market sees the policy statement as suggesting a lower probability for further rate hikes. Late Tuesday prices showed the November contract pricing in 68% probability that rates remain on hold through the September 20 and October 24/25 FOMC policy meetings. December's implied rate of 5.335% was the peak as March stood barely above the current policy rate at 5.29%. ================================================== = كما هو متوقع لم يكن هناك اي زيادة في معدل سعر الفائدة خلال اجتماع اوقست . وفي الاجتماعات القادمة لك حدث حديث سنشير في حينه بمشيئة الله تعالى . =============== ترايدر