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ترايدر · 04-08-2006, 04:49 PM

Updated: 04-Aug-06 08:55 ET

08:55 ET

Payroll Data Increases the Likelihood Fed Will Pause:
The critical factor for the near-term stock market outlook is the Fed policy decision next week. The employment data this morning is being interpreted entirely in that light.

July nonfarm payrolls rose 113,000. This was a bit less than the expected 125,000 to 150,000 increase. The initial reaction in the stock futures to the release was bullish. That is a valid response. The payroll numbers reflect moderate economic growth. The data decrease the likelihood of a Fed rate hike.

The data are not flat-out bullish. Hourly earnings rose 0.4%. This follows a strong 0.5% increase in June and leaves the year-over-year gain at 3.8%. Wage increases are clearly on the rise. That can add to inflation pressures. Wage hikes are partially offset by productivity gains, but a faster rate of wage hikes will be of some concern to the Fed.

The data reflect a slower rate of economic growth, but there is no indication of a recession. A 113,000 monthly increase in payrolls is almost exactly a 1% annual rate of increase. Coupled with 4% wage growth, consumer spending power is rising at about a 5% annual rate. That isn't much above total inflation, but it is enough to keep real consumer spending, and the economy, on a modest growth path.

The data are consistent with the soft landing that the Fed desires.

Our view is that the Fed will not raise rates at the meeting on Tuesday. Economic growth is slowing, and inflation rates need time to ease. Fed funds futures now incorporate only about a 20% chance of a rate hike on Tuesday. The Fed is cognizant of the fact that the market is not expecting a rate hike, and should take this opportunity to show that it is not stuck in a rut of always raising rates. Such action would not preclude them from raising rates again later in the year.

The stock market rally last week and this week incorporates optimism that the Fed won't raise rates on Tuesday. There is therefore no guarantee that the market will rally even if the Fed does pause, particularly if the policy statement makes it clear that further rate hikes may be needed. Nevertheless, the underlying tone has clearly improved.

-- Dick Green, Briefing.co

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اوضحت الارقام الاقتصادية الصادرة ان الاقتصاد يتباطأ ولكن لم يصل الى مرحلة الكساد لذا فانه من المرجح عدم رفع سعر الفائدة خلال اجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي القادم في 8 اوقست .
ردة فعل الاسواق كانت ايجابيه جداً .
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ترايدر

04-08-2006, 04:49 PM	#30
ترايدر مشرف الاسهم الامريكية تاريخ التسجيل: Jan 2004 المشاركات: 1,262	Updated: 04-Aug-06 08:55 ET 08:55 ET Payroll Data Increases the Likelihood Fed Will Pause: The critical factor for the near-term stock market outlook is the Fed policy decision next week. The employment data this morning is being interpreted entirely in that light. July nonfarm payrolls rose 113,000. This was a bit less than the expected 125,000 to 150,000 increase. The initial reaction in the stock futures to the release was bullish. That is a valid response. The payroll numbers reflect moderate economic growth. The data decrease the likelihood of a Fed rate hike. The data are not flat-out bullish. Hourly earnings rose 0.4%. This follows a strong 0.5% increase in June and leaves the year-over-year gain at 3.8%. Wage increases are clearly on the rise. That can add to inflation pressures. Wage hikes are partially offset by productivity gains, but a faster rate of wage hikes will be of some concern to the Fed. The data reflect a slower rate of economic growth, but there is no indication of a recession. A 113,000 monthly increase in payrolls is almost exactly a 1% annual rate of increase. Coupled with 4% wage growth, consumer spending power is rising at about a 5% annual rate. That isn't much above total inflation, but it is enough to keep real consumer spending, and the economy, on a modest growth path. The data are consistent with the soft landing that the Fed desires. Our view is that the Fed will not raise rates at the meeting on Tuesday. Economic growth is slowing, and inflation rates need time to ease. Fed funds futures now incorporate only about a 20% chance of a rate hike on Tuesday. The Fed is cognizant of the fact that the market is not expecting a rate hike, and should take this opportunity to show that it is not stuck in a rut of always raising rates. Such action would not preclude them from raising rates again later in the year. The stock market rally last week and this week incorporates optimism that the Fed won't raise rates on Tuesday. There is therefore no guarantee that the market will rally even if the Fed does pause, particularly if the policy statement makes it clear that further rate hikes may be needed. Nevertheless, the underlying tone has clearly improved. -- Dick Green, Briefing.co ========================= اوضحت الارقام الاقتصادية الصادرة ان الاقتصاد يتباطأ ولكن لم يصل الى مرحلة الكساد لذا فانه من المرجح عدم رفع سعر الفائدة خلال اجتماع المصرف الاحتياطي الفدرالي القادم في 8 اوقست . ردة فعل الاسواق كانت ايجابيه جداً . ============================ ترايدر